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Does Poland count in Europe or is it ignored?


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Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Nov 30, 09, 22:08 /  #
Sokrates:
Germany is not going to stay where and how it is, its going to fall on its face

Huh? Why?

....oh but since we are together in the EU we can hope that you will bail us out should the need arise, ja? :)

(I must admit I'm really poking in the dark about what dangers will destroy Germany and only Germany but not Poland or France or anybody else)

Demography would be a factor if Germany would be alone, also an economic crisis (but we have one and we are going through okay)....hmmm...family values? Well..people change, they always did...what else?

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Edited by: Sokrates   Nov 30, 09, 22:12 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
Huh? Why?

Because you're going to lose between 15 and 20 milion people and have over a 40% of your society above 50, this means you're going to have only 1/3 of people actually working and generating revenue which is directly tied to wealth.

Less people making money and more people to spend money on, this translates to immigrants no longer coming to Germany since its going to have a shortage of work opportunities which in turn means that there wont be enough money for any pro-family policies.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,2138258,00.html

There's a whole google of those.
Bratwurst Boy:
....oh but since we are together in the EU we can hope that you will bail us out should the need arise, ja? :)

That depends on Ukraine and Belarus, if they stay as they are i can see Poland and France investing in Germany to promote population growth but its conceivable that within say 40 years Belarus and Ukraine will become an attractive market in which case Poland will turn East.
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Nov 30, 09, 22:17 /  #
Sokrates:
Because you're going to lose between 15 and 20 milion people and have over a 40% of your society above 50, this means you're going to have only 1/3 of people actually working and generating revenue which is directly tied to wealth.

You forget efficiency and technological advancement Sokrates....Today one worker can do the work of 100. Why do you think there is so much unemployment?

Shrinking of populations isn't the problem as more and more machines and computers help out, but the discrepancy between old and young is a problem.
But are you really believing in a kind of a breeding war? We can't expand endlessly...the earth can't bear much more of us!

Russia for example has so much more people, would you call them superior to Germany because of this?

I really don't get you!
rockThreads: 5
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  Nov 30, 09, 22:19 /  #
TheOther:
Very good point! Maybe we will see a competition for Europe's young people in the future.

It will be a very lucky competition as there will be very few young people in Europe in the near future :)
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  Nov 30, 09, 22:24 /  #
rock

Plenty of your fellow countrymen around... ;)
SokratesThreads: 19
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Edited by: Sokrates   Nov 30, 09, 22:25 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
You forget efficiency and technological advancement Sokrates....

No i dont but they're a non-factor, its hard facts and numbers, if you have less people working you have less money, if you have even more people you need to support you have even less money.
Bratwurst Boy:
Shrinking of populations isn't the problem as more and more machines and computers help out

And take the jobs you forgot to add, any job that a computer or a machine does is not done by a living human which in turn means no money, of course you could heavily tax said automated facilities but then they will just move abroad.
Bratwurst Boy:
the discrepancy between old and young is a problem.

And in German case specifically also the loss of people and the fact that while other countries like Poland will have this problem for another 20 years after which there's again growth unless some miracle happens you're going to be shrinking even by 2040s with no option to stop it.

Bratwurst Boy:
Are you really believing in a kind of a breeding war? We can't expand endlessly...

No but extreme cases of decline (and Germany is as extreme as it gets) may cause collapse of a country in its current shape.

Bratwurst Boy:
But also this isn't dramatic to "fall on the face" :)

I've been to Germany many times i've seen the level of life there i'd say that being reduced to Poland-2009 status in lets say 2040 would be a pretty dramatic change.
Bratwurst Boy:
Russia for example has so much more people, would you call them superior to Germany because of this?

Russia is a completely different cookie and its demographic problems are even worse since they have so much more ground to cover.
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Nov 30, 09, 22:31 /  #
Sokrates:
No i dont but they're a non-factor, its hard facts and numbers, if you have less people working you have less money, if you have even more people you need to support you have even less

I have less people to pay and to feed too! ;)
Especially if there are more retirees than workers, machines become more important...and we have them! :)

A Merc (now fully green of course thanks to german technology) for example build mostly by machines brings still a regular sum on the market which can now be shared with fewer people who get now a bigger share...no catastrophe at all.

The only form of that crass case of doom spelling for Europe and Germany was from the nutters of Stratfor....were you wandering there again Sok? *waggles finger at Sokrates*
That is all wishful thinking and has nothing to do with reality!

Not to mention that you like to forget that Germany isn't any longer in a vacuum (as isn't Poland).
Our societies and economies will be entangled in a way that it isn't "Germany which will fall on it's face", it will be all of us or nobody!
SokratesThreads: 19
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  Nov 30, 09, 22:44 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
I have less people to pay and to feed too! ;)

Pure math, if less people get born in each generation then a number of the old people in relation to young workers is steadily increasing each day as more people reach retirement age daily and fewer join the workforce, in Germany its also coupled with people simply vanishing from the workforce via population decrease and the lack of financial margin to afford immigration.

Bratwurst Boy:
Especially if there are more retirees than workers, machines become more important...and we have them! :)

So now we're into science-fiction realm? Apart from the fact that full automation of the industry is well a total unreality due to technological and financial limitation the money earned by those would have to be extracted by taxes which would in turn kill the enterprises by being expensive.

Bratwurst Boy:
were you wandering there again Sok?

Was i ever?
Bratwurst Boy:
That is all wishful thinking and has nothing to do with reality!

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb6588/is_4_14/ai_n28991810/

http://knowledge.allianz.com/en/globalissues/demographic_change/countr y_profiles/demographic_profile_germany_outlook.html

Thats a reality check for you but hey Germany has robots!:)
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Nov 30, 09, 22:51 /  #
Sokrates:
So now we're into science-fiction realm?

Well....we are talking about the next century here, don't we?
(A german robot team won recently the robot-football-championships I've heard, jawoll!) :):):)

If industry will be ever fully automated and if that will be advisable, I don't know.
But modern, western societies ALL enter the post-industrial age, with shrinking populations and higher life span. Also less work for uneducated, unskilled laborer and more service!
That is a generally development, not necessarily a problem we can't adapt to. And surely not
limited to Germany! :)

But if you prefer....okay....soon there will be a huge, empty place in the midst of Europe...where nobody lives anymore and all plants and buildings are overgrown by weeds!

So....happy now? :)

rockThreads: 5
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Edited by: rock   Nov 30, 09, 22:53 /  #
According to UN population estimates for 2050,

Country Populations in Europe :

Russia : 116.000.000
Turkey: 97.000.000
UK : 72.000.000
Germany: 70.000.000
France : 68.000.000
Italy : 57.000.000
Spain : 51.000.000
Ukraine : 35.000.000
Poland : 32.000.000
Romania : 17.000.000

And population by age comparison between Turkey and Europe in 2050;

0-14 15-64 65+
Turkey % 21 % 68 % 11
Europe % 14 % 58 % 28
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Nov 30, 09, 22:57 /  #
You know rock....substitution of Europeans by Turks is so NOT an alternative!
Why don't you breed elsewhere? But who knows...you might develop into an advanced country maybe sometimes too...then you will face the same developments.

Masses of children is the sign of a poor, uneducated, undeveloped society....you have not much else to offer but children!

Just some more info about our european future:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-industrial_society

A post-industrial society is a society in which an economic transition has occurred from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy, a diffusion of national and global capital, and mass privatization. The prerequisites to this economic shift are the processes of industrialization and liberalization.
This economic transition spurs a restructuring in society as a whole.[1]

Yes, a change for our societies....but it isn't the first and it won't be the last...nothing to be afraid of or a reason to wring hands and see only darkness! :)

Examples of post-industrial societies include the United States, Canada, Japan, and Western Europe.
The "post-industrial" period did not begin until during or after World War II, according to most sociologists: "Western sociologists usually maintain that the basis of the post-industrial society began to be formed in the late 1950s and that the process has been gaining ground ever since."[6]


SokratesThreads: 19
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  Nov 30, 09, 23:10 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
You know rock....substitution of Europeans by Turks is so NOT an alternative!

Not a desirable one anyway.
Bratwurst Boy:
Yes, a change for our societies....but it isn't the first and it won't be the last...nothing to be afraid of or a reason to wring hands and see only darkness! :)

Which in this case means raising the age limit to which you have to work but thats a short term solution, that said UN prognosis is rubbish.
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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  Nov 30, 09, 23:14 /  #
Sokrates:
Which in this case means raising the age limit to which you have to work but thats a short term solution, that said UN prognosis is rubbish.

We have to adapt...find new rules and laws....but transitions are never easy!
But as I said...we as peoples had definitely worse things to overcome.
SokratesThreads: 19
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  Nov 30, 09, 23:16 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
We have to adapt...find new rules and laws....but transitions are never easy!

How do you adapt to people being too old to work? (Thats a problem for Poland too, to a lesser extent but still).

Sure you can raise the retirement border but to a certain point only.
Bratwurst Boy:
But as I said...we as peoples had definitely worse things to overcome.

More dramatic? Yes, worse? No.
rockThreads: 5
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  Nov 30, 09, 23:21 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
You know rock....substitution of Europeans by Turks is so NOT an alternative!
Why don't you breed elsewhere? But who knows...you might develop into an advanced country maybe sometimes too...then you will face the same developments.

Masses of children is the sign of a poor, uneducated, undeveloped society....you have not much else to offer but children!

Just some more info about our european future:

It is good and healthy for Turkey that population increase will go on until 2050. According to estimates our population will begin to diminish in 2050. The peak will be 98.000.000. Unfortunately not 100.000.000 :). But, the most important part is we will still have a young population compared with Europe.

We have a huge agricultural potantial and water to feed a larger population. Meanwhile, we are closing the development gap with Europe and passing to post-industrial society will be achieved in 20-25 years. You need also population to be a power in the world and deterrent for your potantial enemies.

If you only look at the Turkish population living in Europe, you will make a mistake.
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Nov 30, 09, 23:22 /  #
Sokrates:
How do you adapt to people being too old to work? (Thats a problem for Poland too, to a lesser extent but still).

That will be taken care of with machinisations and computerizing.
Work in the Service or on computers isn't as demanding. And more machines are able
to produce more wealth than people in the same amount of time (not to mention less need
for "maintenance" like food or social services).
So people don't have to work till they drop...there won't be probably enough work at all.
But people should get still money, they need new responsibilities...as I said it's a restructuring of the society, new ideas and solutions to new problems are needed.

Sokrates:
More dramatic? Yes, worse? No.

Oh yes!
I for one would not had wanted to live during the beginnings of the industrial revolution.
As an unskilled worker in the new plants, not much more than slaves, working till you dropped on the new machines, without any social net, holidays or rights at all, poisened by the toxic, unfiltered vapors, for only a cent per hour.
I would have died very young, without having had a life at all...worse, definitely!
joepilsudskiThreads: 44
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  Nov 30, 09, 23:26 /  #
TheOther:
But to take advantage of those markets and to be competitive Poland would to have to have her own high quality products that are in demand. With your current production base you don't stand a chance.

Good point...Develop the production base, develop cutting edge technology...One problem is capital...Global capitalism now makes decisions, for the most part, about allocations of capital for investment and development...Challenge is attracting capital for investments that will build Poland for the long term, with as few strings attached as possible...Globalists segment the markets: We/You will do this here, we sell it here...A country must develop, as much as possible, a strong independent economy, not subject to the whims of bankers and multi-nationals and their 'strategies'...This is what 'free trade' really means, and it has been a disaster for the US....Harder said than done: Germany is an example, a traditional powerhouse for industry and technology, yet it still suffers from the ambitions of the 'globalists', meaning it's people pay a heavy tax for these schemes...If Germany wasn't tied into the EU mechanism, and was freed from the restraints of the aftermath of WWII, the sky is the limit...But the powers that be do not want this.
rockThreads: 5
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  Nov 30, 09, 23:29 /  #
joepilsudski:
...A country must develop, as much as possible, a strong independent economy, not subject to the whims of bankers and multi-nationals and their 'strategies'

I agree.
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Nov 30, 09, 23:31 /  #
joepilsudski:
If Germany wasn't tied into the EU mechanism, and was freed from the restraints of the aftermath of WWII, the sky is the limit...But the powers that be do not want this.

Ooooh....Joe, you couldn't be more wrong! :)
The EU was always good for Germany. It's our economical "backyard" if you so want.
It's our market....it's much easier to sell here our products than elsewhere...the EU makes it possible, one currency...streamlined laws and procedures...continent wide trade was never so easy! :)

And not only for Germany, every trader nation will tell you the same. Would we be so successfull alone outside? Doubt it..
joepilsudskiThreads: 44
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  Dec 1, 09, 20:08 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
Ooooh....Joe, you couldn't be more wrong! :)
The EU was always good for Germany. It's our economical "backyard" if you so want.
It's our market....it's much easier to sell here our products than elsewhere...the EU makes it possible, one currency...streamlined laws and procedures...continent wide trade was never so easy! :)

And not only for Germany, every trader nation will tell you the same. Would we be so successfull alone outside? Doubt it..

So, you feel Germany does well with the EU system?...You live in Germany, you would know better...Now, as has been stated, Germany subsidizes a big part of the EU...But of course you retain the Mark...Now let me ask: Is the Euro used inside Germany for most transactions, or is it more of a tool for the bankers to 'balance things out', you know, a measuring stick?...There is much debate about 'regional currencies' in the US, the opinion being negative on the part of those who think about these things, the rich bankers being all for it...The majority of people don't really care...How has it worked for Germany?
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Dec 1, 09, 20:16 /  #
joepilsudski:
So, you feel Germany does well with the EU system?

Well...I have the big picture in mind...and the EU is definitely a plus for traders and sellers and entrepreneurs. Movements of goods and money is so much easier! A common currency and no border difficulties nor isolationist, protectionists politics helps alot to spread wealth.

I'm not such a fan of conspiracy theories at all, also I wouldn't see much more in the usual greed of bankers than there already is, but as long as the majority of people profits (prosperous countries, free movement for all, endless possibilities to start your own business where you want etc.) I'm all for it.

You must'n keep the german elites, the german business for stupid Joe.
Yes, Germany pays alot into the EU, but we profit even more so. Only people who don't get that (yes we have them in Germany too) are moping and only see the disadvantages (moving plants, immigrants etc.)

But here I think the EU should become much more pro-European! Plants should move only inside, between the EU members, immigration only between EU-countries etc...
I think we should help first our economically weaker EU-member states instead of some godforsaken hell in Africa etc.
We need to set priorities - and these should be European!
joepilsudskiThreads: 44
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  Dec 1, 09, 20:28 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
But here I think the EU should become much more pro-European! Plants should move only inside, between the EU members, immigration only between EU-countries etc...
I think we should help first our economically weaker EU-member states instead of some godforsaken hell in Africa etc.
We need to set priorities - and these should be European!

Very good point...Now, what is the trade relationship between Poland and Germany?...Is it a case of using cheap Polish labor, or would/does Germany invest in building the Polish economy?...Certainly, Poland and Germany should be good neighbors, since they are next door to each other...Are there Polish businessmen who would like some German expertise, and does the Polish government encourage this?
TheOtherThreads: 4
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  Dec 1, 09, 20:32 /  #
joepilsudski

This should answer your questions (web site is a bit slow):
http://www.warsawvoice.pl/view/17363
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy   Dec 1, 09, 20:36 /  #
joepilsudski:
Very good point...Now, what is the trade relationship between Poland and Germany?...Is it a case of using cheap Polish labor, or would/does Germany invest in building the Polish economy?...Certainly, Poland and Germany should be good neighbors, since they are next door to each other...Are there Polish businessmen who would like some German expertise, and does the Polish government encourage this?

I think the more and the sooner Poland catches up to the "oldies" the more it will become a mutual interchange...I don't see anything what should keep that from happening?

(Germany is already the biggest investor in Poland I believe)


http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/diplo/en/Laenderinformationen/01-Laende r/Polen.html

Economic relations

The Polish economy has successfully withstood the global economic crisis. For example, Poland was the only EU country to record positive GDP growth this year (1st quarter of 2009: plus 1.9 per cent; 2nd quarter: plus 1.1 per cent).

Since Poland joined the EU in 2004, German-Polish trade has gained momentum. For many years, Germany has been Poland’s most important trading partner by far, and Poland is becoming increasingly important for the German economy as its principal business partner in Central and Eastern Europe, ranking an impressive eleventh in 2008.


Even in 2008, a year increasingly overshadowed by the international financial and economic crisis, bilateral trade still grew by 10 per cent, to EUR 66.3 billion, according to Federal Statistical Office figures.

The principal German exports are machinery and electrical goods, plant, motor vehicles, chemical and plastic products. Poland’s main exports to Germany are machinery, vehicles, household appliances, (white goods and television sets), chemical products, food and furniture.

In terms of both the number of investors and the total amount invested, Germany is probably the leading supplier of foreign capital to Poland. Since Poland’s change of political system in 1989/1990, German direct investments of at least EUR one million in the country have been worth some EUR 19 billion (including EUR 2.8 billion in 2007). On top of this are the investments by small and medium-sized companies, especially in the border region, which do not appear in statistics. Most German investments are greenfield investments, only a small portion being made through takeovers or in connection with the privatization of state-owned enterprises. German companies are also investing increasingly in technologically advanced manufacturing and services and are expanding their research and development activities in Poland.

Major German investments in Poland focus on the automotive and mechanical engineering industries, the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, banking and insurance, the wholesale and retail trade as well as the energy sector. Also of increasing importance is business process outsourcing, e.g. in the IT sector.

Poland’s accession to the Schengen area, with the abolition of passport controls at the German-Polish border on 21 December 2007, has further facilitated cross-border cooperation.

See? EU is good for our both countries...
TorqThreads: 65
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Edited by: Torq   Dec 1, 09, 20:47 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
(Germany is already the biggest investor in Poland I believe)

Actually, it's France. Two years ago the sum of French investments in Poland
equalled about 17 billion euro and is steadily growing since then. There are
about 800 French companies registered in Poland (including giants like Carrefour,
Auchan and Michelin; also France Telecom is the owner of Telekomunikacja Polska).

http://www.money.pl/gospodarka/wiadomosci/artykul/francuskie;firmy;lub ia;polske,64,0,250432.html

Recently there's a lot of talk about French-Polish nuclear co-operation. Mainly
it's about power plants, but hopefully our government will not miss an opportunity
to create our own "force de frappe".

Of course, our German friends are very important for us too, but we need to keep
France closer in case some pre-emptive strike is needed in the future ;)
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  Dec 1, 09, 20:48 /  #
TheOther:
This should answer your questions (web site is a bit slow):

Very encouraging...I noticed that the article is from a year ago, but I was most impressed by the report that Germany had a 0% budget deficit...Unbelievable...The US, well, you know the story...PLUS, 20% unemployment here, with another say 10% UNDEREMPLOYMENT...And still the Mexicans, Africans and Asians flood in...The Asians and Africans are productive, the Mexicans work too, but they send all the money back to Mexico, and eat up the social services...California is technically bankrupt, as are most states.

BB:
I think the more and the sooner Poland catches up to the "oldies" the more it will become a mutual interchange...I don't see anything what should keep that from happening

Good news.
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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  Dec 1, 09, 21:08 /  #
Torq:
Of course, our German friends are very important for us too, but we need to keep
France closer in case some pre-emptive strike is needed in the future ;)

Well....that would put the damper on all of our merging plans...:(
TorqThreads: 65
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Edited by: Torq   Dec 1, 09, 21:20 /  #
Bratwurst Boy:
Well....that would put the damper on all of our merging plans...:(

Hey! I didn't mean pre-emptive strike against Germany! We need the alliance with
France to keep those sneaky Swiss bastards in check, in case they want to invade
us through Austria and Czech Republic.

I can't believe you thought I was talking about Germany... there so much distrust
between us... I'm genuinely hurt...

*looks through the window with sad face, wondering what did he do to deserve such
lack of trust...*

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Edited by: TheOther   Dec 1, 09, 21:22 /  #
Torq:
...but we need to keep France closer in case some pre-emptive strike is needed in the future

You'd better watch out that the French and Germans won't cooperate next time... ;)
Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11
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  Dec 1, 09, 21:35 /  #
Torq:
Hey! I didn't mean pre-emptive strike against Germany

Oh...now then...*berates himself*

*orders a round of hot Glühwein for all from the next Christmas market*

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