33% of Poles in Ireland to return to Poland in 2009

bolek:

A lot of people are saying that if America fails to get out of this economic mess its only option will be to create a world war

Deise 07:

While the history books may tell us that the problems of the 1930s were political in nature, the system was under real threat and war got the economies moving again. The reconstruction boom afterwards also made a lot of people rich. Its not beyond the bounds of possibilites that history will repeat itself.

Deise 07Threads: 4 Posts: 91 Joined: Jul 30, 07	Edited by: Deise 07 Dec 9, 08, 19:24 / #
Attached is an article from the Irish Times newspaper about Polish people possibly returning to Poland from Ireland in 2009. However, the article also refers to the fact that some Irish people with senior positions in Financial Services jobs are exploring the possibility of moving to Poland to seek work. If these people go first, its possible that many more will follow. From the article But one of the most "surprising" trends has been separate expressions of interest from a handful of "relatively senior" Irish bankers now looking for senior banking positions in Poland. The good news for these jobseekers is that the Polish financial sector, dominated by banks with strong deposit bases, has proved to be resilient to the global financial crisis to date. An ability to speak Polish is not a necessity, according to Ms Walter. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2008/1208/1228571631794.ht ml So is this to be the start of an Irish exodus to Poland as the Irish economy comes to a standstill? Is Poland ready for gangs of Irish construction workers descending on its cities to live 8 to a flat playing loud Irish music while spending their weekends drinking lots of Guinness and Irish whiskey? Im being facetious of course but I find the fact that the possibility even exists to be quite ironic!

PlywoodThreads: 5 Posts: 53 Joined: Nov 29, 08	Dec 10, 08, 05:10 / #
At the end not only the Poles but Poland will feel that ther are in Europe

scorpioThreads: 26 Posts: 196 Joined: Nov 15, 07	Dec 10, 08, 06:50 / #
Poland is indeed fortunate to have a currrently booming economy both fueled by local demand and large EU investments. Poles must enjoy this economic boom while it lasts. It surely won' t last forever, just as it happened previously in both Spain and Ireland. It's a boom and bust phase, and every single economy experiences it. When will it end here in Poland? Any opinions?

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,158 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Dec 10, 08, 07:36 / #
Boom and bust, kinda sums up Ron Jeremy ;) So long as people get spooked and overreact to this financial crisis, it won't last long. It has served as an excuse to lay off workers and initiate restructuring programs.

byronicThreads: 3 Posts: 33 Joined: Jul 16, 08	Dec 11, 08, 14:40 / #
It's quite possible- the Irish from all backgrounds are starting to emigrate again. Irelands economic boom is well and truly over, it was based purely on construction. Now Ireland has a surplus of housing, and the government did not invest for the future, so it's black days ahead for Ireland, irrespective of a global downturn. Ireland was doomed anyway.

ArcticPaulThreads: 49 Posts: 245 Joined: Apr 7, 08	Dec 11, 08, 14:44 / #
It's like the spud famine all over again!

Lotnik767Threads: 6 Posts: 210 Joined: Nov 12, 08	Dec 11, 08, 14:45 / #
Good news for Poland! No one migrates forever eventually people will return to their home land, I hope I will to when I’m older.

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,158 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Dec 11, 08, 16:31 / #
I read 34% ;)

byronicThreads: 3 Posts: 33 Joined: Jul 16, 08	Dec 28, 08, 12:01 / #
I recently heard on the Irish news that unemployment is expected to increase in Ireland by a further 120,000 in 2009, and 50,000 people are expected to emigrate, that is, leave Ireland in the new year. And most of those expected to leave will be Irish, they being the section of the population that have mostly mortgaged themselves to the hilt with wildly over-priced property, and needed high paying jobs in construction to pay their way. Most of those jobs have disappeared now, so they have to look for work abroad to pay the bills, or alternately sell up and emigrate permanently. Not so easy when most of their houses are well into negative equity. I can see a lot of the Polish staying on, as they seem to live more frugally, they are more sensible with their money, and most are renting, the property collapse will also be good news for them (unless they work in the building trade), as places to rent are becoming more numerous and cheaper. Ireland is loaded with empty properties now, with lots of landlords keen to rent or sell at reduced prices. And about time too.

Deise 07Threads: 4 Posts: 91 Joined: Jul 30, 07	Dec 30, 08, 19:57 / #
Many Poles have left already and more are planning to leave. Its all very well having cheap rent, but if you've no job its not much good to you. Many of the Poles in Ireland also have mortgages to pay on overpriced investment properties back home so staying on wont really be an option for the majority.

Deise 07Threads: 4 Posts: 91 Joined: Jul 30, 07	Dec 31, 08, 12:32 / #
I dont think you realise the extent of what is occurring at the moment. We are seeing the natural result of a thirty year debt binge. Western economies, in particular the Anglo ones, have grown in official terms over the past decades. However, most of the growth has been in debt based service industries. Real exporting industries have been outsourced to Asia and Eastern Europe meaning that the economies are nearly entirely consumption based. The banks are now no longer able to provide the free cash to enable this false expansion to continue and as a result the economies must revert to reality. Effectively they must now give up the false growth of the past decades. It could take years for this to occur and IMO will result in mass social upheaval and may ultimately lead to WWIII. The economy may be "swizz" but its the basis for peoples livelihoods. Ireland (and the UK which is equally fucked) will provide extreme examples of what happens when capitalism is allowed run unchecked at the expense of the majority for the benefit of the few.

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,158 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Dec 31, 08, 12:57 / #
Trust me, I realise very well what is happening. Ever watched the movie Zeitgeist or its follow up Addendum? This provides an expose which is highly revealing. The creation of artificial money. Look at what Bush has done, plunged the US into unprecedented national debt.

Deise 07Threads: 4 Posts: 91 Joined: Jul 30, 07	Dec 31, 08, 14:25 / #
Seanus: Trust me, I realise very well what is happening. Ever watched the movie Zeitgeist or its follow up Addendum? This provides an expose which is highly revealing. The creation of artificial money. Look at what Bush has done, plunged the US into unprecedented national debt. Yes. Ive seen them and agree that they are excellent exposés. Nontheless, whether the current crisis is engineered or not doesnt detract from the fact that it will have serious consequences for many people - not the bankers, brokers and speculators of course, but for ordinary people whose lives may be altered permanently and negatively as a result. Personally, I think we are seeing the end of an era and may soon see the emergence of a new way. Whether this will be a genuine movement of the people or whether it will be engineered by the same people who brought us the so called "free" market remains to be seen.

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,158 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Dec 31, 08, 17:21 / #
Oh, for sure. I wonder how Poles will be affected in 2009 as, unless we are to believe what plk123 called 'voodoo' economics, the Poles will be up sh*t creek without a paddle. The economic realities here just don't square up. There must be a lot on credit here or some shady shenanigans. "The Polish secret" I was told.

moonlightThreads: 7 Posts: 115 Joined: Nov 10, 08	Dec 31, 08, 09:50 / #
Seanus: It has served as an excuse to lay off workers and initiate restructuring programs. I agree, a lot of businesses are getting out now because while still making a profit its not as big as they were used to. Irish people have become greedy, self-opinionated snobs, driving in SUV's they cant afford and families of 4 living in 10 bedroom houses they cant afford to heat!!!

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,158 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Dec 31, 08, 09:56 / #
It's just a nonsense. Remaining modest is the way forward, to self preservation even. There is so much boom and bust these days, the economy is just a big fake swizz anyway. The Poles are better off away from that environment.

Grzegorz_Threads: 81 Posts: 6,213 Joined: Nov 16, 06	Dec 31, 08, 12:54 / #
Deise 07: 33% of Poles in Ireland to return to Poland in 2009 90% would come back If the Irish economy was in crisis and the Polish one was doing very well but It isn't so. 2009 will be for Poland at best rather bad but It can be even dramatic. Unfortunately "booming Polish economy" is nonsense... the only difference is that we are hit later as the crisis is not domestic made but comes from abroad.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08	Dec 31, 08, 21:37 / #
Deise 07: It could take years for this to occur and IMO will result in mass social upheaval and may ultimately lead to WWIII. A lot of people are saying that if America fails to get out of this economic mess its only option will be to create a world war (look at the current middle east conflict) This may sound sick but think about it folks it would lead the US of recession and bump up a lot of shares.

Deise 07Threads: 4 Posts: 91 Joined: Jul 30, 07	Jan 1, 09, 19:23 / #
bolek: A lot of people are saying that if America fails to get out of this economic mess its only option will be to create a world war (look at the current middle east conflict) This may sound sick but think about it folks it would lead the US of recession and bump up a lot of shares. Exactly. The last two world wars came directly from economic crises. Indeed, Weimar Germany shares a lot of smilarities with the type of consumption based societies which have been in evidence over the past couple of decades in western countries. The great crash then led to a period of extreme hardship for many. Something similar could be said to be happening at present. It may not have hit yet in Poland but many other countries are facing some serious circumstances from here on out. While the history books may tell us that the problems of the 1930s were political in nature, the system was under real threat and war got the economies moving again. The reconstruction boom afterwards also made a lot of people rich. Its not beyond the bounds of possibilites that history will repeat itself.

KrakowiankaThreads: 2 Posts: 272 Joined: Oct 16, 08	Jan 1, 09, 23:30 / #
bolek: A lot of people are saying that if America fails to get out of this economic mess its only option will be to create a world war That was way back in the day when the US actually produced stuff. Now that China and every other cheap country would be producing most of the items required for battle (and until know has been supplying for the Afghan-Iraq "conflict") this would have no benefit for the US. Maybe actually only a negative one, taxes would increase, hence pooring the US even more. Deise 07: While the history books may tell us that the problems of the 1930s were political in nature, the system was under real threat and war got the economies moving again. The reconstruction boom afterwards also made a lot of people rich. Its not beyond the bounds of possibilites that history will repeat itself. History has changed a lot! Much of the problems in the US are due to outsourcing, and fraud. Jobs have been fleeing to cheaper countries for decades, the stock market severe decline and accounting/management fraud are all reasons why the history will not repeat itself the same way as it did in the past.

dcchrisThreads: 11 Posts: 687 Joined: Oct 29, 07	Jan 2, 09, 03:11 / #
but lets face it the average standard of living in america is much higher than in other parts of the world including most of europe. so the idea of suffering there is not the same as in other places. so people will have only 2 cars for 2 drivers instead of 3 cars. The US will be ok for the next 15 or 20 years but they must be prepared to lose their grip over the world to China who will take it over not through military action but through economics

Deise 07Threads: 4 Posts: 91 Joined: Jul 30, 07	Jan 2, 09, 20:59 / #
Krakowianka: History has changed a lot! Much of the problems in the US are due to outsourcing, and fraud. Jobs have been fleeing to cheaper countries for decades, the stock market severe decline and accounting/management fraud are all reasons why the history will not repeat itself the same way as it did in the past. To be honest I think the following, "the stock market severe decline and accounting/management fraud are all reasons why the history will not repeat are reasons why history will not just repeat itself but why it may exceed the extremities of the 1930s/40s. Of course I hope Im wrong but I think not. IMO the system of life we have all become accustomed to is finished. Whats next is anybodys guess...

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08	Edited by: bolek Jan 2, 09, 23:51 / #
Krakowianka: That was way back in the day when the US actually produced stuff Lets face it when the US is threatened it will create a war, even if it means telling lies when it invaded countries like in Iraq, Vietnam, and supporting right wing groups in South America. The US propaganda machine is so well oiled up it is able to transfer a lie into making out it is a good guy. If US business is threatened and the only solution is creating a world war, the US will create a war. Make no mistake if you had a fist full of dollars in your hot little hand, I'm sure you would do the same. Like always money comes number one, morality comes last.

Wahldo	Edited by: Wahldo Jan 2, 09, 23:57 / #
bolek: countries in South America US never invaded South America. Cuba's not South America, neither is Panama.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08	Jan 3, 09, 00:07 / #
Wahldo: US never invaded South America. Cuba's not South America, neither is Panama. It had its agents like the CIA in countries such as Nicaragua and supported the right wing contras to overthrow a popular government

Wahldo	Jan 3, 09, 00:21 / #
bolek: It had its agents like the CIA in countries such as Nicaragua and supported the right wing contras to overthrow a popular government The French and British had their agents in our affairs.. the Russians too. You are quite the pious little twit.

osiolThreads: 59 Posts: 4,714 Joined: Jul 25, 07	Jan 3, 09, 01:39 / #
I had nothing to do with the CIA in Nicaragua and I know nothing about it. Was it about coffee?

Wahldo	Jan 3, 09, 01:51 / #
osiol: I had nothing to do with the CIA in Nicaragua Uhh.. I think you were teaching soccer in Belize at this juncture.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08	Jan 3, 09, 14:34 / #
Wahldo: The French and British had their agents in our affairs.. the Russians too. You are quite the pious little twit. lol, the truth hurts sometimes ha.

HAL9009Threads: 2 Posts: 329 Joined: Mar 13, 07	Edited by: Moderator Jan 3, 09, 18:55 / #
I'll be sorry to see our Polish friends leave Ireland. Our Polish community has blown an exciting breeze through our culture. Hopefully most will stay. Poland's economy is as vulnerable as that of any other country. It is just as heavily borrowed as the rest of Europe. It also has the disadvantage of being outside the Euro zone. It's advantage is its size. But no economy will escape the downturn. No boom has ever ended in any manner other than a bust (Read what the OECD has to say on it). Currently we have borrowings which have used other debts as collateral. Debt built upon debts. Where has all the money gone? In essence it hasn't been there for several years now. Ireland is in a particularly bad position. As well as the problem of the current economic slump it trades largely with the UK and the US, neither of which are in the Euro zone and both of which have effected the devaluation of their currencies with respect to the Euro by drastically lowering their interest rates, while the ECB doesn't. It also has a land border with the UK. On the plus side Ireland would be in a similar position to Iceland if it still had its own pre-Euro currency. The German tail wags the Euro dog and the Germans fear currency collapse more than anything else it seems (memories of 1920s inflation) so interest rates are unlikely to fall much. Not too good for Ireland. Deise 07: The last two world wars came directly from economic crises. I disagree. WW1 was due to other factors. WW2 was largely a result of the terms of the Versailles Treaty and to political failures of the 1930s, starting with the non-participation of the US in the League of Nations and ending with the failure of Britain to go to war over Czechoslovakia. @bolek Given a choice between US and Soviet influence in the world up to 1990 I would certainly have preferred that of the US. Yes, there was a lot of nasty stuff going on, especially the Vietnam war. BUT the USA is a democratic society where the government is answerable to the people (as in all democracies). So there is always, in theory a reckoning (um, eventually anyway). Nixon was removed for example. The Vietnam war was ended largely by public opinion at home. The Iraq war is about oil and strategic influence. The Afghan war is a legitimate conflict. Afghanistan assisted in the Sept 11 attack on the US. The US is entitled to defend itself. These two conflicts are entirely different and separate. The US has suffered from very bad leadership under Bush. Hopefully Obama will do a much better job, starting with the economy. osiol: Was it about coffee? What? Coffee time, now. Cool :) Ladies and gents. Please, try to remain on topic. Thank you.