UK recession on the way?

Wroclaw Boy:

Wroclaw Boy Apr 20, 08, 08:15#1
It appears as though the UK is heading for another recession.

2.5% drop in housing prices for March 2008
Increased food prices
Increased oil prices
A nation or borrowers
An undislcosed figure likely to top 50 billion of debt for national banks
GBP in lowest ever position against the EUR

Its not looking good folks. Perhaps the immigrants will have no choice but to leave over the coming months as the well dries up.

KrecikThreads: - Posts: 4 Joined: Sep 14, 08	Edited by: Krecik Sep 15, 08, 10:19 / #
Lukasz: so people look on thishttp://stooq.com/q/?s=djiathe best opportunity to earn money. enjoy. open short possition :) be rich Somebody had knowledge

szkotja2007Threads: 38 Posts: 2,543 Joined: Dec 29, 06	Sep 15, 08, 13:16 / #
szkotja2007: Lukasz: enjoy. open short possition :) be rich The "smart" money will be doing this. URL Those looking for security should buy Gold. Todays news - FTSE down 3.92%...Gold up 3%. Looking in to my chrystal ball for this week.......go short on finanacial sector shares.......they will lose more money tomorrow, small bounce on Wed but close the week down. All IMHO

LukaszThreads: 73 Posts: 2,396 Joined: Sep 1, 07	Edited by: Lukasz Sep 15, 08, 14:00 / #
I prefere long term investments than short term... I would be very carefull with playing long on oil or gold but who knows ... (of course I am not talking about one week predictions) Anny way now I am investing in small water power plant I have most of concessions and I am taking marriage and building house in vilage (there is beautiful church) close to my investement and speculations will be only additional part of my income so I'll be sepnding deffinately less time using computer and this original forum. Of course new social and familiy duties are going to be important part of my new life :) cheers

szkotja2007Threads: 38 Posts: 2,543 Joined: Dec 29, 06	Sep 15, 08, 14:22 / #
Lukasz - I agree. Maybe taking some money out of the markets is a good idea. Good luck in all of your endeavours.

LukaszThreads: 73 Posts: 2,396 Joined: Sep 1, 07	Edited by: Lukasz Sep 15, 08, 15:38 / #
szkotja2007: Lukasz - I agree. Maybe taking some money out of the markets is a good idea. Diversification gives kind of security and result will be tangible. ;) szkotja2007: Good luck in all of your endeavours. thanx

whyikitThreads: 7 Posts: 36 Joined: Sep 1, 08	Sep 15, 08, 16:52 / #
Ok markets are in turmoil at the moment but shares have fallen so much over the last 14 months. Financials yes share have fallen a great deal recently but, in my view, are dirt cheap at the moment for medium to long term. Times like this the P/E is key!! Diversification is key, but to work it has to be diversified from the start, difficult choices to make now if you haven't been fpr the last year....

LukaszThreads: 73 Posts: 2,396 Joined: Sep 1, 07	Edited by: Lukasz Sep 15, 08, 17:02 / #
whyikit: Ok markets are in turmoil at the moment but shares have fallen so much over the last 14 months. Financials yes share have fallen a great deal recently but, in my view, are dirt cheap at the moment for medium to long term. Times like this the P/E is key!!Diversification is key, but to work it has to be diversified from the start, difficult choices to make now if you haven't been fpr the last year.... yes but I have my old short positions and I'm waiting ... you know "trend is my friend" "1. For example, an investor who borrows shares of stock from a broker and sells them on the open market is said to have a short position in the stock. The investor must eventually return the borrowed stock by buying it back from the open market. If the stock falls in price, the investor buys it for less than he or she sold it, thus making a profit."

whyikitThreads: 7 Posts: 36 Joined: Sep 1, 08	Edited by: whyikit Sep 15, 08, 17:13 / #
As the saying goes once you here someone the street talking about it sell!!! Still some ruff times ahead, wait and see if AIG survive a month or so. Shorts are good when you have knowledge to back them, which you seem to, although dangerous to the less well informed. As I keep getting told from my compliance officer past performance is not a guide to the future. Investment returns may go down as well as up!!! LOL!! I need a holiday!!

LukaszThreads: 73 Posts: 2,396 Joined: Sep 1, 07	Edited by: Lukasz Sep 15, 08, 17:32 / #
whyikit: As I keep getting told from my compliance officer past performance is not a guide to the future. Investment returns may go down as well as up!!! I agree but there are always technical signs before change, it is importnat to watch who is buying who is selling. It is good to have access to information with cash flows ... long story whyikit: LOL!! I need a holiday!! I use my computer 17 h/day watching different markets counting ratios preparing for next day etc. and reading PF (LOL ;) ) ... I need holyday ;) It is good that my life is going to change very soon. I just can't wait for change. Cheers.

szkotja2007Threads: 38 Posts: 2,543 Joined: Dec 29, 06	Sep 18, 08, 16:22 / #
szkotja2007: Looking in to my chrystal ball for this week.......go short on finanacial sector shares.. Todays news -URL Short-selling of financial stocks is to be banned in the United Kingdom from midnight on Thursday night under rules drawn up by the Financial Services Authority How come the banks can screw Joe Public but when they get a rough time the FSA jumps in ?

Mister HThreads: 11 Posts: 845 Joined: Jan 4, 08	Sep 21, 08, 12:16 / #
How are the Polish managing with the UK economy ? Has the work dried up and, if so, what happens next ?

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Oct 13, 08, 02:35 / #
When they can 'bank' on a bail out, why not be frivolous? That's their attitude. Bank users already pay through the nose with hidden charges and bank fees. At the end of the day, they are, at grassroots level, just the safekeepers of our money. 2.5 million, that's a laugh. A sick joke!!

szarlotkaThreads: 14 Posts: 3,340 Joined: Feb 20, 07	Oct 13, 08, 14:44 / #
Given that there is a major credit crunch on, can somebody please explain why the number of junk mailings inviting me to have a platinum or gold credit card has not decreased at all? Confused of middle England (Earth?)

Mister HThreads: 11 Posts: 845 Joined: Jan 4, 08	Oct 13, 08, 17:24 / #
szarlotka: Given that there is a major credit crunch on, can somebody please explain why the number of junk mailings inviting me to have a platinum or gold credit card has not decreased at all? Confused of middle England (Earth?) I think it's a combination of your credit score being pretty healthy together with banks who probably have yet to really learn their lesson. I had a letter from my bank today suggesting I increase my loan and borrow more. It's madness !

LukaszThreads: 73 Posts: 2,396 Joined: Sep 1, 07	Edited by: Lukasz Sep 18, 08, 17:27 / #
I've closed most "short possitions" today. Volume on DJ and Nasdaq was very big and it means something. I'm slowly starting new life. =) szkotja2007: Short-selling of financial stocks is to be banned Now they can do what ever they want. You can always play on futures (Short or long and earn in both sides) it is avoidable.

DaisyThreads: 16 Posts: 2,172 Joined: Apr 28, 07	Oct 13, 08, 02:25 / #
szkotja2007: How come the banks can screw Joe Public but when they get a rough time the FSA jumps in ? Exactly! The director of the Royal Bank of Scotland was paid 2.5 million last year, yet it's the tax payer who are now bailing them out URL

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Oct 11, 09, 02:12 / #
How are things now? Kwaśniewski, ex PM of Poland, was apparently told that the crisis will stop when certain people want it to. He met some high-profile people who explained it to him. The UK doesn't mind recessions as, like a Swedish porn star, it is accustomed to boom&bust :)

Mister HThreads: 11 Posts: 845 Joined: Jan 4, 08	Oct 11, 09, 15:46 / #
Seanus: How are things now? I think that depends on what people have done themselves to improve their situation. Some try and find another job, cut back on their expenditure and try and live within their means. Others just sit and wait to be rescued and blame anyone and everyone if things don't improve. Personally, I think that the recession is far from over and the Government are just doing a bit of PR on the figures to make them sound better than they really are. We're a country built on debt and all the major parties now accept that cuts will need to be made, but they're still too afraid to come out and say how much needs to be cut and from where. David Cameron has made some noise over those on Incapacity Benefit and trying to get them into work instead, but no one really wants to admit yet how bad it could turn out to be. Anyone that relies on state handouts will be in for an even rougher ride I reckon. Seanus: Kwaśniewski, ex PM of Poland, was apparently told that the crisis will stop when certain people want it to. He met some high-profile people who explained it to him. Sounds very cloak and dagger. I dread to think what really goes on behind closed doors when such things are discussed. Seanus: The UK doesn't mind recessions as, like a Swedish porn star, it is accustomed to boom&bust :) Maybe porn will be the career of choice for people that have their benefits cut ;-)

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Oct 11, 09, 16:07 / #
Well, either way they will be stiffed, Mister H ;) ;)

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 56 Posts: 5,262 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER	Oct 11, 09, 17:59 / #
Wroclaw Boy: Wroclaw Boy Apr 20, 08, 08:15#1 It appears as though the UK is heading for another recession. 2.5% drop in housing prices for March 2008 Increased food prices Increased oil prices A nation or borrowers An undislcosed figure likely to top 50 billion of debt for national banks GBP in lowest ever position against the EUR Its not looking good folks. Perhaps the immigrants will have no choice but to leave over the coming months as the well dries up. Nice "thread revisited" whos still in the UK after all that and its still going strong. Damage report:

time meansThreads: 9 Posts: 2,309 Joined: Apr 21, 08	Oct 11, 09, 18:02 / #
Wroclaw Boy: GBP in lowest ever position against the EUR Lower now than then i believe, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for exporters.

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 56 Posts: 5,262 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER	Oct 11, 09, 18:20 / #
time means: Lower now than then i believe, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for exporters. I went on holiday with a bunch of Brits in January this year they all needed Euros and it was one to one, ouch. 1 Euro - 0.92 GBP right now still not good. Its worse now than it was then.

derek trotterThreads: 12 Posts: 252 Joined: Apr 10, 09	Oct 11, 09, 18:27 / #
I remember 1 GBP to 1 EUR like 2/3, good old days

time meansThreads: 9 Posts: 2,309 Joined: Apr 21, 08	Edited by: time means Oct 11, 09, 18:27 / #
Yes for the eurozone tourist it's pretty crap at the moment. A lot of people are choosing all inclusive now. A mate came back from Corfu recently and they were wanting 4.5 euro for a pint in some places.

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 56 Posts: 5,262 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER	Oct 11, 09, 18:44 / #
time means: A mate came back from Corfu recently and they were wanting 4.5 euro for a pint in some places. Fcuk i had a beer (A bottle) in Les Arcs France last year and payed 10 EUR for two. I swiflty drove down the shop and picked up 24 for a fraction.

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07	Oct 11, 09, 19:29 / #
That can happen. I remember being in a hotel in Montenegro and paying 3 Euro for a small bottle of wine. I went to the shops and got the same wine, just 6 times bigger, for fractionally more (40 Euro cents more).

cheehawThreads: 9 Posts: 831 Joined: Oct 10, 09	Oct 12, 09, 00:02 / #
the crisis will stop when certain people want it to. otherwise the news is quite dreary. sometimes horrifying.

Mister HThreads: 11 Posts: 845 Joined: Jan 4, 08	Oct 12, 09, 13:11 / #
cheehaw: the crisis will stop when certain people want it to. otherwise the news is quite dreary. sometimes horrifying. Who are the "certain people" ?