ash1972: Blue Enigma, the point is that Ireland managed to get the best of both worlds by both being inside the EU *and* later on adopting an incongruously low corporation tax rate. The combination of 1) Being in the Eurozone 2) Having far and away the lowest CT rate in the Eurozone was what proved a winner with global corporations
No that wasnt your point, and I never disputed that low corporation tax was a factor in our success. Everybody knows that Irelands success is down to low corporation tax, you are stating what everybody who reads a newspaper knows already. What Im curious about is that you also stated Irelands recent economic success wouldnt have been achieved to the same extent unless Ireland was in the EU, Im asking you why considering they have tried everything to raise our taxes and it was only when we stepped outside our EU box that we gained succes.
ash1972: As regards the PLN, it has long term, strengthened enormously since Poland entered the EU. Indeed the original motivation behind the pro-Euro political drive was that an overly strong Zloty would hamper Polands' exports. The weakening PLN at the moment is caused ENTIRELY by a global capital flight to the USD due to problems in the whole emerging markets sector, not Poland specifically.
Im not sure where I or anyone stated that the weakening Polish zloty was a result of Poland specifically ? You seem to be answering my questions with answers for different questions.
ash1972: Germany is a huge donor to the EU. What the EU will invest in Poland has been pre agreed. No, Germany doesn't have pre arranged outsourcing contracts with Poland. Germany isn't so big on outsourcing anyway compared with Britain or the US.
That doesnt make sense. You said in a previous post that business contracts between germany and Poland had already been agreed, so there wasnt anything to worry about. Im not sure why you are correlating EU funding to a EU member state such as Poland to anything to do with the economic situation prevailing throughout the world, or indeed the impact of the worldwide recession on poland and its housing sector. I said germany and 'countries' and earlier discussed the importance of Americas outsourcing activities in poland.
ash1972: You still haven't put your money where your mouth is; so, I ask again: Will Polish property prices in 2012 be higher or lower than they are now?
Im eating a burger now, so Im not so silly as to wrap my money around it :) Its impossible to predict what property prices in poland or anywhere else will be like in 4 yrs, thats absurd considering the present turmoil and contributory factors. Historically we can assume the market will fall, possibly bottom out, climb slowly and level out and get to a stage where they are realistic and relative to GDP, inflation and salaries etc. You seem very defensive of Polands economy and the housing sector. Im assuming it is either because you are very patriotic or you are refusing to accept anything but a positive and optimistic outlook because you have invested your money already in polish property. Either way, its nice :)
SeanBM: I do not agree that Poland will go down the drain or that it will not be effected by the world crises, the truth is somewhere in between. I personally think it is healthy for Poland to reassess lending and prices so that the same does not happen here as in other countries.
I dont believe it will go down the drain either, and I think it is able to cushion current economic storms better than most. "the truth is somewhere in between" very true.
SeanBM: I read a lot about how people are going to be coming back from abroad in their droves but I do think it is unrealistic. Until Polish people can earn as much here as they can in other countries, there is nothing to go back to.
I disagree as I think many will return, as they are doing already. They arent earning anything like they once did in Ireland and elsewhere. Construction workers who were earning E1000 a week in Ireland are now out of work, where can they go if not home ? I was at a wedding in krakow recently and was talking to a polish guy who had flew over from Ireland to attend. He is a plasterer in Ireland but will be returning to Poland in February as he says the construction industry in Ireland is completely finished. His gf was working in a hotel down there as a cleaner and is now unemployed unable to get work or social welfare so returned already to Poland. What else can they do but go home, and there are hundreds of thousands in the same situation.
SeanBM: We can again look at Ireland's history, when things went bad in other countries in the past. Irish people still worked abroad, it was only when it became possible in Ireland for people to earn good money and opportunities were abundant did the population go up, 99% of my friends went back. People are going to loose there jobs, many have already. I think a lot of Polish people will continue to seek work abroad because it beats the alternative of coming back, let me rephrase the question, what do they have to come back to?.
Good point SeanSeanBM: If/When Ireland is forced by the E.U. to come in to line with the rest of Europe for taxation. I hope the Americans will come here. Cheaper wages, property and a very high level of third level education.
They are already going, dell left here to relocate in Poland already and understandably so. I am very impressed with the level of education in Poland, krakow is a wonderful example with its wonderful universities everywhere. Education in Poland is seen as more of a privilage than a necessary burden which is refreshing. If the Poles on this website continue exagerating about salaries and cost of living, I suspect any prospective multi national scout will run to India instead lol guys keep it real ;)
SeanBM: And sleeping in the tunnels in hyde park wrapped up in old cardboard. I have seen it, I saw Irish people doing the same and I saw Polish people taking their place. It is a terrible thing, it'd break your heart.
Awful
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