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Loan market in Poland - summary


daniel.podpora   Dec 27, 08, 05:47 /  #
Halo all


First of all I would like to take some comments regarding loans because I notice that some things are unclear.

First thing which is worth to mention is that the NPB cut the rate by 75point and the basic rate is 5% now. It is more than expected but still very high when we compare it to LIBOR. This will change the property situation?. Not at all. Especially now. The rates was cut but the margins are higher.

Before the crisis the bank margin in currency were from 0,8% up to 1,5%. The “standard” margin was 1%-1,2%
In PLN the margin started from 0,5% up to 1%. The average was 0,8%.

The LTV was from 100% up to 130%

And now we have:

The LTV in some banks are still 100% but the bank margin is 1,8% in PLN and 3% in currency. CHF is almost unavailable. Most of the advisors starts to offer the loans in euro and dollars with 2,5% bank margin.

The “standard” LTV is 80% and it is not true that 30% deposit is required.

And now I would like to ask everyone. Would you take a loan with bank margin 3%-5% in currency and 1,5%-2% for 30yrs?
I think no. it is not true that the prices are still high. They are really low but the customers are not interested not in the properties but loans. They are not waiting for lower prices but for better offers from the banks.

The longer the loan will not be available the longer the prices will go down.
But I notice as well that a large number of people resign from selling the properties for a such low prices. So we will not see a next 20 or 30% reduce in price. In my opinion it will be just 8-10%

On the forum I read that the forecast for GDP will be 3,9%. I saw analysis which say that GDP will be -0,5%. Everyone now are chasing to give the worst forecast but it is not possible to predict how much it will be.

The prosperity time will come back as soon as banks will start giving loans.


Also for non-residential customers loans are very hard to accessible. I would say that there are two banks for them now.

There is a very good time to build property portfolio. I think we have 6 months before the prices will start to rise.
At the moment I have 4 investors who asked me for a help to chose for them discounted properties. But cash is a king now.

I think we will see property growth sooner that expected. And it will not be 2012. I do not know why everyone likes so much this date :). What is your opinion?

Kind regards
daniel.podpora@gmail.com

Loan and property Advicer
Guest   Dec 27, 08, 06:57 /  #
daniel.podpora:

CHF is almost unavailable


why is CHF almost unavailable. Is the rate attractive for investors??
Grzegorz_Threads: 80
Posts: 6,103
Joined: Nov 16, 06 		  Dec 27, 08, 07:07 /  #
daniel.podpora:

daniel.podpora [Guest]


Thanks.
szkotja2007Threads: 38
Posts: 2,543
Joined: Dec 29, 06 		  Dec 27, 08, 07:15 /  #
Daniel - Relax - its Christmas, pull up a chair, open a beer, switch on the TV........................the LTV, LIBOR, EBDTA,%,$ and Zl will all be there tomorrow.

Join us.
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,160
Joined: Dec 25, 07 		  Dec 27, 08, 07:19 /  #
Fantastic commentary brethren :)
boydie   Dec 27, 08, 10:09 /  #
I can't agree with your optmism.

"Prosperity will return once the banks start to lend money" - this may be true but they will need to get some money first and it will take a lot longer than 6 months in this climate.

"This is a very good time to build a property portfolio" - maybe in France or Spain or another sunny Eurozone country, maybe even in Slovakia or Slovenia, but in Poland you will be taking a huge risk on a very dodgy currency.

"The reduction in price will be 8-10%". Its already been 11% in some markets (Poznan from today's Gazeta Wyborcza) with the other main metro markets showing falls of 2-7%. This is just the beginning - 30% down within 18 months I reckon.

Finally, as with the stock market you should not assume that you can buy on the dips after 3-4 months of hard times, it will take 2-3 years for this shock to work through and even after that there are some economists arguing that property prices will never reach their 2007 peak again. I think they will but in a 8-10 year timeline.
daniel.podpora   Dec 27, 08, 11:16 /  #
I have to be optimistic. I have 3 units to sell now :),

first i would like to reply boydie and then i will take a beer :).

I wrote that we will not see next 20-30% fall. but 8-10%. and this will happen if the bank starts lending, otherwise i recon to buy a land and grow carrots. the purpose of the bank is lending the money. they have to start doing it. if not prehistoric times will welcome us.

Most of you remember forecast that oil will hit 200$ now they forecast that it will cost 20$. the truth is somewhere in the middle. and the same is with property prices. if you write that there will be next 30% fall it means that the average price in Warsaw will be 4500-4800.

why the chf is not unavailable?

first of all the bank margin in chf is very high, from 3% up to 5%. additional you have to have a huge salary to take a loan in chf. Lukas, fortis, millennium, dombank, i would say m-bank, multibank doesnt have chf in the offer at all.
my customers are taking loans in euro, $, no one i thinking about CHF.
a large number are loans in PLN,

i have also many questions regarding refinace to release equity.
what offers have you been given?
I have meetings with banks after new year to disccuss the refinance and it would be great if i have some comments from You regarding bank margin you have and LTV,

please write daniel.podpora@gmail.com
andy bThreads: 6
Posts: 195
Joined: Nov 26, 07 		  Jan 9, 09, 10:22 /  #
Daniel, thanks for your thoughts.
I have added my own to a new article on my website.
You can find the link here: http://www.poland-mortgage-direct.com/articles.html?art=109
time meansThreads: 9
Posts: 2,309
Joined: Apr 21, 08 Pictures: 1 		Edited by: time means   Jan 9, 09, 10:33 /  #
andy b:

I have added my own to a new article on my website


seems a very honest,frank,sensible no bullshit opinion. cheers.
ash1972Threads: 3
Posts: 93
Joined: Oct 22, 08 		Edited by: ash1972   Jan 9, 09, 13:46 /  #
Andy, do you think the Polish mortgage market will bounce back much quicker than in the West? Personally I do.

The fact is Poland's banking system has no inherent weakness - at least compared to its Western counterparts. There is no toxic subprime debt on the balance sheets and total lending as a proportion of GDP is barely an 1/8th of British and US levels.
Guest   Jan 9, 09, 19:19 /  #
ash1972:

There is no toxic subprime debt on the balance sheets and total lending as a proportion of GDP is barely an 1/8th of British and US levels.


lol, that was said with a lot of solid institutons in the US and GB and look what is happending now. Most Polish finance companies are linked to bigger institutions in the US, France and England.

You have no substance for your opinion
ash1972Threads: 3
Posts: 93
Joined: Oct 22, 08 		  Jan 11, 09, 17:42 /  #
Guest:

Most Polish finance companies are linked to bigger institutions in the US, France and England.


And now these Western institutions are extracting PLN from Polish banks to pay their debts? I think not.
agomulaThreads: -
Posts: 5
Joined: Mar 11, 09 		  Mar 11, 09, 13:04 /  #
It would be nice if you mentioned that you work for the RedNet so rather high premiums to be expected to be paid for the advice you provide. Think RedNet has been mentioned in a number of post in rather dim light. Remember when i tried once approching your company I got a rather cold welcome and exorbitant prices quoted .

One can check Daniel out googling his name and surname with rednet
daniel.podpora   Mar 12, 09, 18:15 /  #
halo agomula

I left rednet a week ago and i work as a free lancer :).

now i can help in my opinion even more regarding loan, fit-out or selling the unit.

regards
daniel.podpora@gmail.com
HarryThreads: 59
Posts: 7,995
Joined: May 2, 07 		  Mar 16, 09, 16:32 /  #
ash1972:
The fact is Poland's banking system has no inherent weakness - at least compared to its Western counterparts. There is no toxic subprime debt on the balance sheets

Are you taking the piss? People took out 100% (or even 120% mortgages) in Swiss Francs and the Zloty has collapsed. A good friend of mine took a 110% mortgage back in June (i.e. 360,000zl for a 330,000zl flat) and currently has a 500,000zl mortgage 'secured' on a flat worth 280,000zl! How is that not toxic?
slcfThreads: -
Posts: 1
Joined: Jun 17, 09 		  Jun 18, 09, 00:04 /  #
Hi,

I'm new to this forum but was curious is the mortgage market still suffering in Poland like it is in other countries i.e. Low LTV and very few offers?

thanks
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