Belarus seems to meet a disaster

Socialist and post Soviet experiment in Belarus seems to be over.
Belarus government utilized low gas prices for years. That was the reason of Bielorussian @socialist miracle'.
When Russian prices went up at the beginning of this year Bielorussian profits came nearly to zero and its debt was incremented in 500 million dollars.
Now Belarus asks a 1.5 billion dollars credit in Russia, but Moscow doesn't hurry saying that Russia is not sure credit will be used for treatment of local economy and not for prolongation of socialist myth.
On 3 of August Russia will give only half of gas portion. Pensions and other social donations aren't indexated since the beginning of this year. Devalvation is quite real.
Crisis management is required

Isn't Russia going to kick out Lukashenko and take over Belarus ?

I think that no. Belarus is in majority for independence.

Belarus blackmailed Kremlin for 10 years. The threat was that Minsk could declare for all Russian people USA has forced Russia to put end to Belorussian sicial state described as Eldorado for poor people and pensioners.
All Belorussian victories were due to Russian preferences. But it was impossible to give such explication to many poor and old voters in Russia. Logic isn't a good instrument when you are talking to such people. So Moscow continued donating Belarus. Sometimes Kremlin managed to show real nature of Minsk. For example by proposing Belarus integration into Russia and that was rejected by Minsk. But that all wasn't sufficient to the majority in Russia. When a myth about Eldorado exists in minds of poor people, nothing is possible.
But Russia has now a period of better living standarts. So Kremlin decided to cope with this blackmail and parasitism.
That is the reason for crisis in Belarus.

Now the best thing for Russia and the West is to save Lukashenko as president without power (he is the garant of souvereignity) and to establish common crisis management.
If EU don't want to save Lukashenko and to participate in this way, Moscow will be the only crisis manager

words from song...

`My name is Luca`

well, I think soon comes the time to reintegrate Grodno to the mother country - by referendum of course
just kidding :)

Grodno is not Kosovo.
All Grodno former residents are already in Poland.
Well, have a dream about Grodno, Vilnius or Lvov. You will have a problem with neighbour while you are dreaming

whatever, I won't have that problem, since it was a mere joke, not a dream.

Well. Forgive me. I'm so accostomed to people who want to change borders in serious way...
As to Belarus sitiation there doesn't seem to be funny. It is not like Darfur or Kosovo. Or Iraq. But it is so near.
It will poison in a considerable degree foreign affairs in East Europe.

Russia to reduce gas supplies to Belarus

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070801/ap_on_re_eu/russia_gazprom;_ylt=Am 2Pf69XAi8rrKCR9hP5VNt0bBAF

Gazprom is not to give in

http://www.charter97.org/eng/news/2007/08/02/gas

Dictator’s bankruptcy

http://www.charter97.org/eng/news/2007/08/02/dik

Andrei Suzdaltsev: Political crisis to follow

http://www.charter97.org/eng/news/2007/08/01/krizis

How will Fotyga act in this situation.
I think she is waiting. When situation becomes clear she will cry about Russian expansion. Now when it is possible to take part, she is inactive.

The Russians will never withdraw support to Lukashenko.In my opinion the whole move is in rder to persuade the West about the power and influence of Russia.

Belorussians should be interested in Lukashenko position as president, not in his crazy activities. He is a garant of Souvereignity. Russia and EU should respect his position as Japanese Emperor stayed intouchable by Americans in 1945 despite his participarion in war crimes.
As to Belarus in general, crisis management is required.
As to Russian support, it is already withdrawn.

Russia doesn't have great power. Only gas trade but it can't be used as a wide blackmail because Russian society is unable to have satisfactory living standarts without selling gas.