IMF predicts Poland's economy will slow down in 2012

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Edited by: warszawski May 29, 11, 00:47 #1

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says it expects Polish economic growth to ease somewhat next year.

The organization predicts that the country's GDP will expand by 3.6 percent in 2012, compared to 3.8 percent for this year.

The Polish government's forecasts for this year, meanwhile, are a little rosier. It predicts that the country's economy will grow by four percent.

Poland, the IMF says, could be negatively affected by an expected slowdown in Germany (2.5 percent growth this year, compared to 2.1 percent next year, according to the organization's predictions). Roughly a quarter of all Polish exports go to Germany and if the latter's economy does start losing steam, Polish exporters are likely to suffer.

The IMF report also sees the global economy growing by 4.4 percent this year and by 4.5 percent in 2012.
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According to Władysław Mielczarski from the Technical University of Łódź, the Polish economy is bound to slow down after 2012, and as a result demand for energy will remain at its current level

http://www.wbj.pl/article-53622-poland-germany-energy-link-by-2020.htm l

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Edited by: pawian May 29, 11, 01:09 #2

warszawski:

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says it expects Polish economic growth to ease somewhat next year.

Didn`t IMF make a false prognosis about the Polish growth 2 years ago? :):)

http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/147213,polska-w-opalac h-wieszcza-nam-kryzys.html

-0.7% in 2009 while in reality it was +1.7%. The difference: 2.4%

warszawski:

The organization predicts that the country's GDP will expand by 3.6 percent in 2012, compared to 3.8 percent for this year.

Wanna bet? :):):)

GrzegorzK	May 29, 11, 01:41 #3
Still bigger growth than EU countries and even the U.S. Who takes the IMF seriously anyway, it's chief was just arrested cause he tried raping a girl.

GrzegorzK	May 29, 11, 01:42 #4
Poland also has its own natural gas reserve it can tap into which will grow jobs, especially if foreign companies invest... that'll make lots of jobs and profits for Poles and Poland.

nic30

May 29, 11, 02:01 #5

Just about every country except Russia are expected to contract for 2011. and tiny gains for the big eight in 2012. Poland seems to be following the Emerging and Developing Countries pattern. I thought all the Shale gas exploration would have meant a bigger 2012. 2020 is when shale exports will start apparently and with France refusing to driil it should go for a good price. In sept. the prelim Shale deposit reports come out that's when more accurate predictions can be made.

nic30	May 29, 11, 02:08 #6
GrzegorzK: will grow jobs, especially if foreign companies invest Just about every company from exxonmobil down has already bought exploration contracts. England, Holland, Canada, Italy etc. all want a piece of the action. I think I heard 25 companies for the moment

valpomikeThreads: 20 Posts: 244 Joined: Apr 20, 09 ♂	May 29, 11, 02:12 #7
But what does the I M F know, look where their leader is now, and for what. Poland, will get better, next year, and still better, the year after. Poland's bad days are over, and will grow more with time. POLAND RULES Mike

guesswhoThreads: 23 Posts: 3,326 Joined: Mar 17, 10 ♀	May 29, 11, 02:35 #8
valpomike: Poland, will get better, next year, and still better, the year after. Poland's bad days are over, and will grow more with time. jeez, you're a real prophet Mike, :-)

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Edited by: warszawski May 29, 11, 09:26 #9

pawian:

Wanna bet? :):):)

PO, opt for the old adage " Numbers may not figure, but figures do not lie", There is only so much they can pull out of that magicians hat, the old tricks are starting to wear thin. ZUS, the sell off of state assets, shale gas. With the growth in salaries and rising costs, this party looks like it is coming to an end. The question is do you all bolt for the door ( Ukraine) or sit around and wait for last orders.

As long as we have the Zloty we have room to massage the pain, once we adopt the Euro, we are on the path of doom.

TheHessianThreads: 1 Posts: 52 Joined: Jan 29, 11 ♂	May 29, 11, 09:54 #10
The IMF predicts a "slowdown" from 3.8% to 3.6% and some of you guys are acting like they predicted that the country will burn down. You guys really aren't easy to satisfy ;) Most other countries would kill to get 3.6% growth. Especially if you consider that Poland doesn't have a growing population like the UK or USA.

hague1cmaeronThreads: 21 Posts: 1,649 Joined: Mar 30, 10 ♂	May 29, 11, 10:11 #11
warszawski: The organization predicts that the country's GDP will expand by 3.6 percent in 2012, compared to 3.8 percent for this year. Based on their previous record of forecasting over the last few years, i would add on an extra percentage point at least. My prediction is between 4.8% and 5.2% for this year.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,224 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	May 29, 11, 10:16 #12
valpomike: Poland, will get better, next year, and still better, the year after. Poland's bad days are over, and will grow more with time. You sound like someone after reading one of those American Self Help books...

nic30

May 29, 11, 12:08 #13

Most financial analysts don't get it right in month on month predictions,even. In the forex world it tends to serve to manipulate markets. Poland from within can manipulate the zloty by interest rates, as has been implied by warszawski, which allows fine-tuning of foreign investment and exports. If there is a referendum on joining the euro I feel that the Poles will be patriotic, or fear Greece's example, and keep it. The Euro hasn't proved itself stabilising. Its helped Germany a lot by Greece Portugal Spain and Irelands bad governance making a weak euro for easy exports of German cars - their bread and butter industry.
IMF stats (for me) can only be used as a leader board like seeding with sports players. Taking the numbers from a Poland-centric stance says little without factoring in other countries. If the US and Germany do better this will mean more exports and foreign investment provided the Zloty has an attractive value outside of Poland.

warszawskiThreads: 60 Posts: 2,385 Joined: May 21, 10 ♂	May 29, 11, 13:46 #14
nic30: If the US and Germany do better this will mean more exports and foreign investment provided the Zloty has an attractive value outside of Poland. It has been touted that interest rates will go up at least twice this year.

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	May 29, 11, 16:47 #15
nic30: If there is a referendum on joining the euro I feel that the Poles will be patriotic, Erm...so the Euro countries are not patriotic???

guesswhoThreads: 23 Posts: 3,326 Joined: Mar 17, 10 ♀	May 29, 11, 16:57 #16
warszawski: There is only so much they can pull out of that magicians hat smart comment

nic30

May 29, 11, 17:42 #17

Bratwurst Boy:

Erm...so the Euro countries are not patriotic???

Patriotism in its negative and positive sense when people say Poland will be a superpower it is patriotic but senseless. The UK found it easy to get the vote to keep the Pound by marketing Patriotism and pride in Britain as a country able to hold its own. Many joined like the two little pigs scared of the big bad wolf(Russia in Poland's case). While Germany and France knew it had the bricks. Patriotism is one's country(fellow countrymen from latin) and lineage, this change to Euro is to jump tracks. So anyway, I say yes, to join the euro is to be less patriotic and show less belief in your countrymen and leadership, based on the definition.

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May 29, 11, 18:32 #18

nic30:

The UK found it easy to get the vote to keep the Pound by marketing Patriotism and pride in Britain as a country able to hold its own.

Yes. While UK as one of major powers of EU isn't giving up Sterling/Pound, requesting Poland to give up Zloty and patriotism is unfair to Poland. At least, UK need to declare they will cancel Sterling and will join Euro domain. Then, Poland will be joining Euro earlier than UK. Zloty and Euro are to their advantages of Poles as Poland have manufacturing sector while manufacturing industry of UK moved to elsewhere like China. UK can find itself in crisis before Poland as the reel sector is stronger in Poland.

pawianThreads: 90 Posts: 5,395 Joined: May 30, 08 ♂	Edited by: pawian May 30, 11, 00:08 #19
guesswho: warszawski: There is only so much they can pull out of that magicians hat smart comment Actually, it is not, because Polish enterprenual skills are not taken into consideration :):):)

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Jun 1, 11, 20:32 #20

GDP growth at 4.4 percent, new stats reveal
31.05.2011
Poland’s GDP stood at 4.4 percent growth year-on-year, reveal new numbers released on Tuesday by the Central Statistics Agency.
Aleksandra Swiatkowska, an economist from PKO Bank Polski notes that the 4.4 percent growth rate in Q1, 2011 is a slight drop on Q4 figures from the end of last year, which stood at 4.5 percent.
“This is the effect of coming out of the financial crisis in 2010 and it was relatively easy to generate a high dynamic whereas now we are coming into a period of stable growth, which is also good at above 4 percent,” Swiatkowska told Polish Radio.
Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Waldemar Pawlak has praised the result. In a comment for PAP news agency, Tuesday, he said that the figures “show a rise in business activity and bode well for the future.”
The Economy Ministry hopes that Poland’s GDP will continue at a rate of over 4 percent growth for the remainder of the year.

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Jun 1, 11, 20:39 #21

Hmm yes & the IMF also thought Poland needed an IMF loan.
When Poland was the only country in the EU to not go into a Recession & the only country in the EU to have had continous economic GDP growth & Not GDP Drops in the past few years.

Also Poland is geting the Dell Factories that made Ireland rich.

I don't know how the IMF can come to a conclusion like this.

But, the IMF is run by Mr Kahn a Jewish rapist.

If Poland's Economy drops we know it is because the IMF said so & That this made investors & business not want to keep Poland's economy keep going.

F*ck the IMF Kurwas & their disgusting Rapist leader.

pawianThreads: 90 Posts: 5,395 Joined: May 30, 08 ♂	Jun 1, 11, 21:18 #22
PolskiMoc: F*ck the IMF Kurwas & their disgusting Rapist leader. Stop swearing. I won`t be able to open this page on my school computers due to swear blockades. :):):):

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Jun 1, 11, 21:19 #23

PolskiMoc:

Hmm yes & the IMF also thought Poland needed an IMF loan.

They might still do. I wouldn't be so quick with the boasting - Poland is one crisis away from trouble, although the constitutional provisions should allow the government to make drastic cuts if required.

PolskiMoc:

Also Poland is geting the Dell Factories that made Ireland rich.

You do realise that those factories have already been sold on - and Romania is already taking a lot of work away from Poland?

PolskiMoc:

I don't know how the IMF can come to a conclusion like this.

Uh, the high level of public debt? The weakness of the currency?

PolskiMoc:

If Poland's Economy drops we know it is because the IMF said so & That this made investors & business not want to keep Poland's economy keep going.

Seriously child, go back to school.

pawianThreads: 90 Posts: 5,395 Joined: May 30, 08 ♂	Edited by: pawian Jun 1, 11, 21:21 #24
delphiandomine: PolskiMoc: If Poland's Economy drops we know it is because the IMF said so & That this made investors & business not want to keep Poland's economy keep going. Seriously child, go back to school. Nope, Polski Moc is a bit right here. Don`t you know that pen is mightier than the sword?

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Jun 1, 11, 21:52 #25

delphiandomine:

They might still do. I wouldn't be so quick with the boasting - Poland is one crisis away from trouble, although the constitutional provisions should allow the government to make drastic cuts if required.

There will be no bad news days, until after the election. In respect of our average man in the street, a nation of debt savy, are taking to debt like a duck to water. Here is one for you Delph, Stare Zoliborz in Warsaw, is an area mainly of villas and segments with small plots 200-700 m2, the average price per m2 sold is about 15,000 PLN per m2, for a house/segment, that is more expensive per m2, than most luxury apartments being sold in the center.

iuy	Jun 1, 11, 21:53 #26
They're comparing year on year - the increase is due to success in outside countries after recession miserliness. Month on month down two months running. Manufacturing index down also so next month very likely to continue poor performance. Good news is that price rises are slowing.

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Jun 1, 11, 21:59 #27

warszawski:

There will be no bad news days, until after the election. In respect of our average man in the street, a nation of debt savy, are taking to debt like a duck to water. Here is one for you Delph, Stare Zoliborz in Warsaw, is an area mainly of villas and segments with small plots 200-700 m2, the average price per m2 sold is about 15,000 PLN per m2, for a house/segment, that is more expensive per m2, than most luxury apartments being sold in the center.

Absolutely nuts. I always thought that Poland's strength was in not handing out easy credit, but it seems that those days are well and truly over :(

But then again, when foreign companies are handing out 25,000EUR + salaries in Poznan to workers (both Polish and foreign), is this really such a poor country?

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Edited by: PolskiMoc Jun 1, 11, 22:00 #28

delphiandomine:

They might still do. I wouldn't be so quick with the boasting - Poland is one crisis away from trouble, although the constitutional provisions should allow the government to make drastic cuts if required.

PolskiMoc: Also Poland is geting the Dell Factories that made Ireland rich.

You do realise that those factories have already been sold on - and Romania is already taking a lot of work away from Poland?

PolskiMoc: I don't know how the IMF can come to a conclusion like this.

Uh, the high level of public debt? The weakness of the currency?

PolskiMoc: If Poland's Economy drops we know it is because the IMF said so & That this made investors & business not want to keep Poland's economy keep going.

Seriously child, go back to school.

Since Poland did not get a recession there is no problem.

Poland is in better shape than alot of nations in the EU.

The Polish Zloty currency is generally on the up & up.

Poland should keep the Zloty. It was smart that england kept the Pound it actually benefitted England.

Yes, Consumer & Investor confidence is a huge part of it. When there is breaking news like the IMF saying Poland will decline it makes it so people are less likely to invest.

This is why it is important for leaders during a recession or depression to keep up consumer & invester confidence.
If consumer of Investor confidence goes down.

Then the economy generally goes down.

Do you know anything?

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Jun 1, 11, 22:04 #29

PolskiMoc:

Since Poland did not get a recession there is no problem.

Uh. No problem, except that little issue of debt to GDP ratio being dangerously close to the constitutional limit - and property prices stagnating.

PolskiMoc:

Poland is in better shape than alot of nations in the EU.

Poland isn't much better off than most others. It's stable right now, but we've already seen part of our pensions taken by the Government.

PolskiMoc:

The Polish Zloty currency is generally on the up & up.

Up and up? It's sitting around 4 to the Euro, as it has done for around 16 years. Doesn't sound like "up and up" to me.

PolskiMoc:

Poland should keep the Zloty. It was smart that england kept the Pound it actually benefitted England.

You do realise that the UK is in a world of trouble right now, economically?

PolskiMoc:

Do you know anything?

I get the feeling you don't.

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Jun 1, 11, 22:21 #30

PolskiMoc:

Since Poland did not get a recession there is no problem

Yes there is, Poland was able to massage the figures, other countries were already burdened with huge debt.

PolskiMoc:

Poland is in better shape than alot of nations in the EU.

Most beggars on the street are in better financial shape, than some European countries

PolskiMoc:

The Polish Zloty currency is generally on the up & up.

Until the government releases the next set of bad figures or sells it Euro holdings.

PolskiMoc:

Poland should keep the Zloty. It was smart that england kept the Pound it actually benefitted England.

PL has signed a pact with the Euro devil, it can only ward off evils spirits from Brussels for so long, the more bad news about the Euro zone ( Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) the longer PL has.

PolskiMoc:

Yes, Consumer & Investor confidence is a huge part of it. When there is breaking news like the IMF saying Poland will decline it makes it so people are less likely to invest.

Banks dishing out, easy credits is a big part of it.

PolskiMoc:

This is why it is important for leaders during a recession or depression to keep up consumer & invester confidence.
If consumer of Investor confidence goes down

I think I know, what you mean here.

PolskiMoc:

Then the economy generally goes down

PL is in its third financial downturn, since 1989, thats one every 7 years, they are getting good at it now.

PolskiMoc:

Do you know anything?

There are quite a few expats that have been in PL for over 15 years, starting to sell up there investments and move back home, or into the Ukraine. Maybe they know something?

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