Will Poland survive when the US crashes

wielki panThreads: 3 Posts: 278 Joined: Jan 7, 11 ♂	Aug 3, 11, 07:38 #1
Most informed business commentators agree that the US economy is in free fall and its only a question of time when most countries will feel this effect.. A lot of US money is pumped into Poland and this will soon dry up. I don't think any investor will want to touch the US dollar. The US is set to be a new Argentina!

shinga	Aug 3, 11, 08:45 #2
Our main business partner is Germany, and the biggest share of foreign investments in Poland come from that country, 80% of all FDI in Poland comes from within EU. US crash would only affect us indirectly.

peterwegThreads: 35 Posts: 1,989 Joined: Feb 16, 07 ♂	Aug 3, 11, 09:51 #3
US is less than 4% of Poland's foreign trade (it doesn't even get a mention in the CIA fact boook). US takes 6.7% of Germany's exports, so that will have a bigger effect.

Foreigner4Threads: 22 Posts: 1,984 Joined: Nov 18, 07 ♂	Aug 3, 11, 10:03 #4
Our main business partner is Germany, and the biggest share of foreign investments in Poland come from that country, 80% of all FDI in Poland comes from within EU. US crash would only affect us indirectly. that leads me to wonder how German business will hold up; the indirect affects you pointed out...

pipThreads: 11 Posts: 1,293 Joined: Jul 4, 11 ♀	Aug 3, 11, 10:51 #5
here is the thing. when the u.s. crashes Poland may feel it a bit. the people that will feel it are the middle class of the u.s. The ultra rich will still be investing abroad. my husband has had his best year yet- majority are from American companies. I guess they don't know about the reccession.

♂

Aug 3, 11, 12:38 #6

USA touched on the ground at the election in 2008 when Bush lost the election and its economy crashed before that already. It effected themselves, but, mostly Europe. Poland too was affected, but, since Poland was poor comparing with rich Western Europe, it didn't influence Poland, even had a little positive effect due to business flow escaping from ruining Western Europe to Poland. USA's economy isn't in the fall freely now, it is bouncing back. Not to over-go high again, Obama is trying to cut extra expenses, profitless, useless spendings such as troops everywhere and he is doing correct, even if not being liked by Western Europe and Russia.

♂

Aug 3, 11, 12:52 #7

A lot of US money is pumped into Poland and this will soon dry up.

When the US economy crashes, no one will ever bother if that affects Poland in any particular way. The reason for it is that all countries will be grossly affected irrespective of the volume of the US assets in any one of them. The impact of the crash would not in the least lie in the amount of money the US had invested abroad.

If that happens, the US will stop being a "wielki pan" in the world with the prospect of China replacing it in that role ...

IronsideThreads: 59 Posts: 6,783 Joined: Feb 26, 09 ♂	Aug 3, 11, 14:22 #8
I can see that flow of cash, don't you think they should use pipes for safety measures ?

scottie1113Threads: 11 Posts: 873 Joined: Mar 13, 07 ♂	Aug 3, 11, 16:34 #9
People, the US is not going to crash. Period.

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Aug 3, 11, 18:18 #10

i came to Poland in January of 2007, just before the economic crisis. business was good. then, some time in 2008, the entire ESL industry changed (for the bad) in Wroclaw and EVERYBODY in Poland blamed it on the USA. Companies that used to have a budget for English classes claimed that they were forced to cut it out due to a weak economy. Now, people want to talk as if Poland couldn't care less if the USA went under because they're all soooooo self sufficient and "who needs the USA?"

I find it difficult for anyone to say that Poland wouldn't feel it if the USA crashed after you all just got finished pi$$ing and moaning for the last 3 years about the exact opposite.

Things go bad, blame the USA. Things are good, the USA had nothing to do with it. That's how it is.

Take a look around your rynek if you live in a big city. US companies and products everywhere.....now imagine if it all disappeared. Just off the top of my head, in Wroclaw you have Hewlitt Packard, Google, 3M, IBM, Hertz, various american retail stores in Galeria Dominikanska, Pasaz Grunwaldski, Magnolia and Arkady, endless american products in supermarkets and delis/kiosks like Pepsi/Coca Cola, Marlboro, not to mention McDonald's, Burger King, TGIFriday's, KFC, Subway, along with other American owned restaurants in the market square.

Now imagine all your surrounding countries experiencing the same and how that would peripherally, or shall i say directly, affect Poland.

This is simply an argument you cannot win.

♂

Aug 3, 11, 18:38 #11

The question is not, whether Poland would survive a crash of the US economy or not. I would rather ask if the country is able to weather the storm that will be caused by American and other international corporations when these are finally forced by their shareholders to move to a different, cheaper location (in terms of wages and taxes). It happened before in Ireland, and look where they stand now. Is Poland prepared for that scenario?

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Aug 3, 11, 19:01 #12

The U.S.A. will not crash, even with this poor leader we have as president, and his party in control of congress. The good Americans will never let this happen, even with this being what the president wants and hopes for.
Also, U.S.A. would never forget Poland, and all her great people, even with this president not keeping his word to Poland in the past, he will be gone soon, but not to soon, for the great people of the U.S.A.
We the people of the U.S.A. love and care for the great people of Poland, and will do whatever we can to help them.

Mike

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Aug 3, 11, 19:02 #13
If the banks convince young Polish professionals that the times are only going to get better, and that they should buy that house that seems a bit beyond their means, that this is their investment in the future... if Poland follows that path, it will lead to the same place US is at.

valpomikeThreads: 20 Posts: 244 Joined: Apr 20, 09 ♂	Aug 3, 11, 19:18 #14
I just hope that the leadership of Poland, is better than what we here in U.S.A. now have. Mike

convexThreads: 46 Posts: 7,185 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Aug 3, 11, 19:22 #15
Poland owns quite a bit of US debt....

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Aug 3, 11, 19:48 #16

I would rather ask if the country is able to weather the storm that will be caused by American and other international corporations when these are finally forced by their shareholders to move to a different, cheaper location (in terms of wages and taxes).

According to your own Chamber of Commerce, American companies that do business in Poland do not rely on the low labor costs, that has ceased to be a decisive factor long ago, in fact their wages are nearly double the national average for the business sector in Poland. 67% of those companies are planning to increase the scope of their investments in Poland, business must be good for them despite the recession. The predominant factors for their investment in Poland are qualified workforce, the size of the local market and location despite the obvious shortcoming in transport infrastructure, tax laws and bureaucracy. Besides six out of ten American companies that invested in Poland expects an increase of revenues in these hard times and most of their investments are in brand new fields for them, not through relocation, expansion of existent operations or takeover of previously established business. Only one out of five American companies that invested in Poland did just that so I wouldn’t worry too much about that scenario.

♂

Edited by: TheOther Aug 3, 11, 20:07 #17

ShortHairThug --- American companies that do business in Poland do not rely on the low labor costs

Are you sure? Please explain to me then why DELL left Ireland for Poland.

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/episodes/mixed-blessings/irelands-bl eak-economic-prospects/4064/

Quote:
"Dr. Alan Barrett of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) says that Dell’s closing is not a result of the economic downturn, but of a pattern all too familiar in the United States — corporations’ perennial search for cheaper labor. Since 2000 several companies, such as Procter & Gamble, Intel, Gateway, and NEC Electronics, have moved manufacturing jobs from Ireland to China, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere."

I really hope it won't happen in Poland, but I'm afraid that it will at some point in the future.

♂

Aug 3, 11, 20:08 #18

It is a complex issue.My guess is that Poland will not be affected so much because the middle class in Poland has not connected their asses to global economy failure guarantees so much.This was a trick they really deployed in Europe especially in mediteranean countries they tried to be secure by connecting their failure to the failure of others and ultimately of the whole system but unfortunately it is not like it works because we are superior and prefer them to collapse despite the noise.

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 57 Posts: 5,470 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER ♂	Aug 3, 11, 20:12 #19
Will Poland survive when the US crashes depends on the level of survival you have in mind, they have survived a lot worse, in terms of countries in general being affected by the US's financial downfall - Poland would be one of the least effected.

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Aug 3, 11, 20:45 #20

Are you sure? Please explain to me then why DELL left Ireland for Poland.

Unlike Dr. Alan Barrett whose logic is sound, yours is not. Haven’t you read anything I wrote? For the most part American business in Poland did not move here for the reason you have mentioned. Of course the companies that did just that will seek greener pastures sooner or later that’s inevitable but that’s not the position of majority of American companies that do business in Poland and one or two that will eventually do just that will have a very tiny impact in the grand scheme of things but way short of the economic disaster you predict. You just can’t clump all of those businesses and their motives to move here and invest in the same category because of the expectation you have or desire for it to be the case. One more thing worth to mention here is that American business in Poland is still a very small part of overall investment of foreign capital in Poland.

♂

Edited by: TheOther Aug 3, 11, 21:14 #21

Unlike Dr. Alan Barrett whose logic is sound, yours is not.

Huh? I said exactly the same as him. According to Barret, Dell left Ireland in search of cheaper labor. Where did they end up? In Poland.

Low wages are of course not the only factor that attract companies to Poland, but a decisive one. The American Chamber of Commerce and the Polish-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (amongst others) acknowledged that during a press conference in 2010.

http://www.paiz.gov.pl/20100915/investing_in_poland_2011_a_press_confe rence_and_two_panel_discussions_organized_by_paiiiz_and_wbj

Quote:
"Among the key factors which contribute to the attractiveness of Poland were economic stability, relatively low ratio of labor costs to its efficiency and access to European funds"

In other words, companies are attracted by a highly educated workforce with comparatively low wages, and by available subsidies. No surprise here.

♂

Aug 4, 11, 00:04 #22

Our main business partner is Germany, and the biggest share of foreign investments in Poland come from that country, 80% of all FDI in Poland comes from within EU. US crash would only affect us indirectly.

You need to think beyond the square, the fact remains that there are a lot of US companies in Poland, the question of the US setting a base in Poland is certainly now at risk.. One has to also remember that a lot of money is sent to Poland by people working in the US for purposes of buying real estate..(people say that the homes built in Zakopane are from money sent from the US) One has to now consider what effect this will have on the Polish real estate market??
People who say the US will recover must believe in fairies, the reality is that the US has a debt that it cannot repay, made worse by high unemployment, This is the second time in 2 years that the US has increased its funding level, consider this... out of every 10$ spent (committed ie pay pensions.health etc) 3$ has to be borrowed. Forum members can draw there own conclusions.
No so long ago in Poland people were buying bread and butter using million dollar zlote notes, hmmm.

I don't think I would be storing a bucket load of US dollars under my bed...The search is now for a reliable currency.

warszawskiThreads: 60 Posts: 2,385 Joined: May 21, 10 ♂	Aug 4, 11, 00:20 #23
I don't think any investor will want to touch the US dollar. The “ Sothebys indicator“ is getting very close to predicting a stock market crash, If I was a betting man, my money would be on, a stock market crash before the end of 2011, and a rally on the USD. Would Poland be affected by this, just look what happened in 2008, history has a way of repeating itself.

NomadatNetThreads: 6 Posts: 1,492 Joined: Mar 28, 09 ♂	Aug 4, 11, 00:47 #24
The search is now for a reliable currency. Every country will be closed to itself soon.. So, reliable currency is zloty only if you are in Poland. It is USD if you are in USA. Etc.

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Aug 4, 11, 00:51 #25
..The search is now for a reliable currency. Precious metals? Except rhodium, dammit.

gumishuThreads: 17 Posts: 3,943 Joined: Apr 6, 09 ♂	Aug 4, 11, 09:38 #26
f stop Precious metals? Except rhodium, dammit. is rhodium too reactive for a precious metal or did you mean radium?? ;)

klakakThreads: 7 Posts: 100 Joined: Jun 4, 09 ♂	Aug 4, 11, 13:34 #27
Obama is trying to cut extra expenses.....and he is doing correct That's a big LOL

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Aug 4, 11, 14:22 #28
is rhodium too reactive for a precious metal Really? Rhodium is practically untarnishable.

xjessie007Threads: - Posts: 9 Joined: Aug 4, 11 ♂	Aug 4, 11, 17:40 #29
Why would the US crach?

LwowskaKrakowThreads: 49 Posts: 504 Joined: Mar 9, 07 MEMBER ♀	Aug 4, 11, 18:19 #30
Our main business partner is Germany, and the biggest share of foreign investments in Poland come from that country NO, I think France is the biggest foreign investor in Poland( Leroy Merlin Auchan Cap Gemini Air Liquide Carrefour Castorama) not Germany.

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