Polish Zloty 2011

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Edited by: warszawski Sep 9, 11, 09:32 #1

Here are the rates this morning:

USD/PLN 3.0818 09 SEP 2011
EUR/PLN 4.2803 09 SEP 2011
GBP/PLN 4.9201 09 SEP 2011
CHF/PLN 3.5308 09 SEP 2011

For all you currency speculators, if you are connected to Poland in any way through business or investment a stable exchange rate can mean the difference between " profit and loss" the PLN has been up and down like a " whóres nickers" for the last two years:

How low can it go or will it bounce back from here on in ? Over to you for your forecasts, thoughts and predictions on all things PLN !

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,224 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Nov 14, 11, 21:39 #2
Anyone care to answer the question above? looks like the zloty weakens when the Euro gets further into trouble...

pipThreads: 11 Posts: 1,293 Joined: Jul 4, 11 ♀	Nov 14, 11, 21:50 #3
ok, but they are all low. why would the zloty be the only currency to gain strength. It will always follow the Euro- for obvious reasons.

grubas1	Nov 14, 11, 22:29 #4
warszawski: Over to you for your forecasts, thoughts and predictions on all things PLN ! I don't have a forecast but I am HOPING for a USD at 2008 lows meaning 1 USD=2 PLN.

scottie1113Threads: 11 Posts: 873 Joined: Mar 13, 07 ♂	Nov 14, 11, 22:57 #5
grubas1: I don't have a forecast but I am HOPING for a USD at 2008 lows meaning 1 USD=2 PLN. Not gonna happen.

ZlotyThreads: 6 Posts: 19 Joined: May 20, 11 ♂	Nov 20, 11, 14:49 #6
I'm really paying close attention to this. As of now, it's $1 = 3.27zl. I wonder if the Zloty will get weaker or stronger. It's a pretty good time to exchange.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,224 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Nov 20, 11, 16:39 #7
If the euro collapses will the zloty be pretty worthless,or what??

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Edited by: skysoulmate Nov 20, 11, 17:11 #8

milky :

Anyone care to answer the question above? looks like the zloty weakens when the Euro gets further into trouble...

Why do you find it surprising? It's normal flock behavior very common to currency trading but also to stock trading, precious metals trading, oil, etc. When investors get spooked they seek assets perceived as "safer."

The Złoty might bring in somewhat higher rates but when there's turmoil people prefer stability over rates. Yet the "stable currencies" have problems of their own. The US has issues with our budget deficit and a huge debt ratio, Japan has the budget deficit AND a strengthening currency which hampers the Japanese export market; how high can the Yen go before the Japanese economy collapses? The £ is weak due to the weak economy and the huge debt ratio which of course warrants a low interest rate. In general a low rate equals a weak currency but not always, look at Japan. The euro zone suffers from high debt in some member states AND unclear rules on how to proceed?

So people jump from one "safe bet" to the other and even to some smaller currencies. Yet when s&@t hits the fan they all prefer the lousy rates in the $€Y£ currencies over the higher yielding but even more volatile, smaller currencies.

If Greece gets pushed out of the €-zone, initially the €uro will plummet but in the long run it'll strengthen from the transition, think of it as outsourcing of the bad, Greek debt. Złoty will be all over the map during this period and it'll rise and drop based on the rumor of the day. 3-6 months after the transition (IF it happens) things will slowly return back to the more normal, less volatile appreciations and depreciations. The end of world isn't here yet. ;)

WedleThreads: 24 Posts: 786 Joined: Sep 27, 11 ♂	Nov 20, 11, 17:18 #9
skysoulmate: So people jump from one "safe bet" to the other and even to some smaller currencies. Yet when s&@t hits the fan they all prefer the lousy rates in the $€£ currencies over the yielding but even more volatile, smaller currencies if Greece gets the Push the safe haven currencies will be US$ C$ and Aus$

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Edited by: skysoulmate Nov 20, 11, 17:32 #10

It's possible but highly doubtful that the Canadian and the Australian dollars will benefit so much. Just a few months ago the Canadian looney traded higher than the US dollar but as soon as the Euro crisis began to unravel the US dollar became stronger. The Aussie dropped as well although it's still stronger than the US dollar. It'll probably stay that way for a while, the precious metals are bringing the Aussie up (think mining industry). By the way, I forgot to add the Swiss frank into the "safer currencies" club, like Japan though the strong currency might hurt their long term exports which of course would hurt their economy which would affect the value of the currency (it'd drop).

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Nov 20, 11, 17:51 #11

skysoulmate:

It's possible but highly doubtful that the Canadian and the Australian dollars will benefit so much.

I understand we are talking about a specific scenario, which is the exclusion of Greece from the Euro currency, If that was to happen then it would affect not only the Euro, but sterling as well.

USD, would appreciate as institutions would follow back to base policy.
C $ and Aus$ are both commodities backed currencies, seen as safe havens in times of political uncertainty/ financial turmoil.

Gold would sink as everyone would want to be in cash.

Swiss Franc may not appreciate as much as you think, most of the financially wealthy from Austria and Germany already have their money in CHF.

There will be a sharp fall in Global stock markets in the 2-5 weeks as fund managers try to salvage their portfolios for 2011, by cashing in on best performers to tie in their end of year bonuses.

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