How will the Zloty be against the British Pound over the next 6-12 Months

MacduffThreads: 13 Posts: 86 Joined: Oct 30, 07 ♂	Dec 2, 08, 14:33 #1
I have been trying to find out how the zloty will likely be against the GBP over the next 12 month the forecast is the Pound will get stronger against the Dollar and the Euro but can't find a web site that gives you a likely forecast for how the Zloty will behave over this period. Can any one advise

loco polacoThreads: 3 Posts: 421 Joined: Aug 5, 08 ♂	Dec 2, 08, 14:37 #2
I GUARANTEE THAT IT WILL GO UP SOME AND THEN DOWN SOME AND SO ON..

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Dec 2, 08, 19:21 #3

It's anyone's guess. One bank failure in Poland and the Złoty will suffer - as despite the now huge difference in interest rates between Poland and the UK, people still aren't putting money into PLN. I noticed some banks are now offering deals which pay 11% here - so they're clearly getting desperate for cash.

I think the likelihood is that it'll remain somewhere between 4-5PLN-1 pound, but exactly where is a good question. It's also possible that the PLN may weaken against the Pound if the flow of money being exchanged starts to dry up - but I don't think it'll ever go above 5 to the Pound again.

I certainly wouldn't place any bets on the Pound-Zloty relationship in the coming year.

MacduffThreads: 13 Posts: 86 Joined: Oct 30, 07 ♂	Dec 4, 08, 03:52 #4
Thanks guys for your input, I guess I will hold off transferring my Pounds to Polish for a while yet as I don’t think the Zloty will go below 4 but could possibly hit 5 to the Pound. I am forever the optimist so will wait for the 5+ Zloty to the Pound ;)

delphiandomineThreads: 40 Posts: 9,587 Joined: Nov 25, 08 ♂	Dec 4, 08, 19:17 #5
I think it's stabilised somewhat at the 4.5ish level now - even with the interest rate cuts throughout the world, the Złoty just isn't being trusted at all by investors at the minute. It's perhaps foolish as the banking sector seems to be holding up fine here - but it's hard to tell. It's funny, when I came here, it going below 4 seemed like a matter of time, but now...who knows?

MacduffThreads: 13 Posts: 86 Joined: Oct 30, 07 ♂	Nov 6, 09, 04:16 #6
It goes up and down faster than a prostitute’s underwear! I asked last year about the same time the same question, what is the Zloty likely to do in the coming months, I scored last year by holding on to my British Pound but do I do the same again?

ZiemowitThreads: 10 Posts: 1,056 Joined: May 8, 09 ♂	Nov 6, 09, 09:36 #7
It is good if we write down today's exchange: 4.7366 (bid) 4.7406 (ask) for the sterling at 9:09 CET. Most predictions here are that the zloty will strengthen against the euro and the dollar in the coming months. If the pound is likely to be achieving the same, may we expect the zloty/pound pair remain at a fairly stable rate between 4,70-4,80 down into the first quarter of 2010?

southernThreads: 116 Posts: 10,900 Joined: May 17, 07 ♂	Nov 6, 09, 09:41 #8
All the currencies of countries with lots of immigrants will fall down all currencies of countries with less immigrants will remain stable or get up.This is my prediction.

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Nov 6, 09, 11:45 #9
southern: All the currencies of countries with lots of immigrants will fall down all currencies of countries with less immigrants will remain stable or get up.This is my prediction. The US is full of immigrants....Poland on the other hand not. When is the Zloty taking on the Dollar? ;)

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Edited by: southern Nov 6, 09, 11:55 #10

Bratwurst Boy:

When is the Zloty taking on the Dollar? ;)

Soon.This is pesos,it is not dollar anymore.Zloty,czech crown etc are currencies subsidized by EU that is why they are so powerful.Only the hun fiorin lost value but it was because of the hungarian lies to EU,logistical tricks and greed-debt,generally if you try to cheat,you later rip the ...benefits.
Now it is time for the real economy which means the heads down again.

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	Nov 6, 09, 11:59 #11
southern: Soon. You really believe the Zloty is a real rival to the Dollar?

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Edited by: southern Nov 6, 09, 12:05 #12

Bratwurst Boy:

the Zloty is a real rival to the Dollar?

The euro is the rival regarding world reserves.Zloty is a currency of a country whose GDP(whatever it means) does not count globally.Also swedish crown is a currency of a small country.These currencies lose or gain value according to bank measures reflecting the market situation and if economy goes bad and demand for products falls,the currency loses value.
So euro is stable due to german exports leading while imports and debt remain control.Dollar can fluctuate big time because there are huge imports and debts and fluctuating amount of exports.The US can play with their currency in a wide range in my opinion because they try to adjust short term while Germans take long term measures they prefer stability,US prefer injections and boosting.

For example since all US debt is in dollars,the US can devalue the dollar in colossal amount,then pay their debts in devalued dollars and raise its value again after they have paid the debts.But US conciously prefer to keep the price of dollar down and not pay their debts.They have a theory about that,I am sure.They do some calculations.

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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Nov 6, 09, 12:06 #13

southern:

Zloty is a currency of a country whose GDP(whatever it means) does not count globally

That's not what you said in your original post, remember? ;)

southern:

All the currencies of countries with lots of immigrants will fall down all currencies of countries with less immigrants will remain stable or get up.This is my prediction.

The value of a currency depends on alot of things, but not on the number of immigrants!

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Edited by: southern Nov 6, 09, 12:12 #14

The number of immigrants plays a role directly and indirectly because it shows(indirectly) how much promising an economy seemed so how much investment was made in bubbles which are bound to collapse during crisis.The more immigrants,the more vulnerable the economy that is the damage will be felt much more.
If you have no immigrants,probably you had a stagnant economy relying on subsidizing which means that you will feel less pain from the crisis.

The direct influence is deeper.

MareGaeaThreads: 45 Posts: 5,529 Joined: Feb 6, 08 ♂	Nov 6, 09, 12:28 #15
Macduff It's handier to compare the Zloty to the Euro. The Euro is a much stronger currency and much wider accepted than the Pound. And if the UK keeps her promise, she will enter the Eurozone in not too distant future anyway. If they are smart, they will do that. >^..^< M-G (tiens)

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Nov 6, 09, 12:34 #16

On the 29th of October, the bank Goldman Sachs calculated the fair value of the zloty against the euro at ... 3,54. That was a substantial improvement on their previous fair value valuation at 4,09 (I don't know the date of this, however). Since the "fair value" is a purely theoretical concept, it may have nothing in common with the real foreign exchange now or in the future, nevertheless its level compared to today's market value of 4,2498 zloties for the euro indicates that the zloty might be "undervalued" in terms of... I don't really know in terms of what! Also, the direction in which their new calculation goes shows that they think the zloty should be strenghtening rather than weakening.

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Nov 10, 09, 22:07 #17

Ziemowit:

nevertheless its level compared to today's market value of 4,2498 zloties for the euro indicates that the zloty might be "undervalued" in terms of... I don't really know in terms of what!

I think it is undervalued, there was no real fundamentals to the dramatic weakening except investors getting very nervous about the possibility of economic collapse in Eastern Europe. Now that those fears are mostly gone from all but Latvia, the zloty does seem a bit undervalued.

I suspect when people start speculating again, we'll see the Zloty fall to at least 3.7 - but then again, I didn't predict that the zl/Pound rate would collapse as far as 5.25 at one point.

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Nov 25, 09, 01:20 #18

NBP will probably be doing quite a bit to keep prices where they are now to make sure that Poland remains competitive in the EU market through low labor and investment costs. I wouldn't expect the zloty to appreciate when investors are already a bit shaky. Keeping it where it's at will help Poland maintain investment while belts are tight.

Tusk already missed the deadline for joining ERM for his 2012 "join the euro" deadline. Once Poland joins the ERM, NBP will probably do everything in its power to make sure they hit their targets, which probably won't be pretty, but will mean a stable exchange rate against the euro.

I have a really hard time seeing the pound increase in value unless things get a whole lot better globally. If it gets any worse, the only recourse will be printing up more money (those interest rates can't get any lower...). Darling has managed to officially dump 175B GBP straight off the printing presses, that can't help it's value.

So hey, from the couch, I'd say the pound will lose some to the zloty and the euro. If you want somewhere relatively safe for your money for the next 6 months, gold is always an option (maybe even a profitable one)....

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Jan 18, 10, 11:47 #19

Ziemowit:

On the 29th of October, the bank Goldman Sachs calculated the fair value of the zloty against the euro at ... 3,54 [...] compared to today's [6 November 2009] market value of 4,2498 zloties for the euro

delphiandomine:

I suspect when people start speculating again, we'll see the Zloty fall to at least 3.7

Here again, the fair value of the zloty appears in the news again (TVN CNBC / Rzeczpospolita). According to Benoit Anne, an analysts with Meryll Lynch, the fundamentals of the Polish economy suggest that the Poish currency will be worth even less than 2,7 zloties per euro in 2 to 3 years' time. He predicts the course at 3,65 in the end of June 2010. In April or May we may expect 3,7 - says Mateusz Szczurek, chief economist at ING Polska - then we'll see the level of 4,0 at the end of year again.

On the 15th of January, the zloty strenghtened to 4,03 against the euro.

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Jan 18, 10, 12:15 #20
Ziemowit: the fundamentals of the Polish economy suggest that the Poish currency will be worth even less than 2,7 zloties per euro in 2 to 3 years' time. That would be economic suicide. Ziemowit: In April or May we may expect 3,7 That sounds realistic.

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Jan 29, 10, 16:32 #21

Jan 29, 10, 22:32 - Thread attached on merging:
Any meaningful insights in Euro/Zloty exchange rate for the next 6-12 months?

I have a feeling that there might not be any point in asking this question, but I'm feeling brave and lucky (and depending on the kinds of answers received, in need of entertainment). Does anyone have any thoughts and/or articles on what's likely to happen with the euro vs the zloty exchange rate in the next 6-12 months?

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Jan 29, 10, 16:34 #22
http://www.polishforums.com/business-economy-14/will-zloty-against-bri tish-pound-over-next-months-30345/

TrixityThreads: 15 Posts: 48 Joined: Sep 26, 09 ♂	Jan 29, 10, 16:41 #23
Thanks Convex. I should have found that one myself! Let's call it Friday fatigue.

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Jan 29, 10, 16:42 #24
And I'm not sure what your criteria for meaningful is, this thread might still be needed :)

bullfrogThreads: 4 Posts: 379 Joined: Apr 23, 09 ♂	Jan 29, 10, 16:43 #25
OK Convex but he asked vs euro not GBP. My best guest would be to see the PLN oscillate between 3,70 and 4,10 in 2010.

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Jan 29, 10, 16:44 #26
bullfrog: OK Convex but he asked vs euro not GBP. My best guest would be to see the PLN oscillate between 3,70 and 4,10 in 2010. scroll down in that thread

TrixityThreads: 15 Posts: 48 Joined: Sep 26, 09 ♂	Jan 29, 10, 17:08 #27
Yeah, I was about to send the same response as well and then I scrolled down and found all that I wanted.

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Mar 19, 10, 16:00 #28

Investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, said he is shunning sterling because of the U.K.’s trade deficit. “Things are pretty bad for sterling for the long, long, long term,” Rogers said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “I cannot imagine buying sterling back unless it gets really cheap.”

“I doubt I will own sterling in my lifetime,” said Rogers, 67, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999.

The U.K. trade deficit unexpectedly rose in January to the widest in 17 months, reaching 8 billion pounds ($12 billion).

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My message of 6 Nov 2006 (zloty/sterling rate as of that day was 4.74) in this thread said:

Ziemowit:

Most predictions here are that the zloty will strengthen against the euro and the dollar in the coming months. If the pound is likely to be achieving the same, may we expect the zloty/pound pair remain at a fairly stable rate between 4,70-4,80 down into the first quarter of 2010?

The sterling is at 4,33 zloty as of today; the first quarter of 2010 is not over yet, however.

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