Zloty exchange rates - is this just speculation?

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Mar 16, 10, 13:47 #1

As the Zloty appears to be getting stronger against other currencies and with the unofficial opion of friends in Poland that the economy is heading for trouble then the feeling was that the zloty would continue getting stronger for maybe another year or so and then nosedive - as an example you might get 4.20zl to the Pound today and maybe in a years time you might get 3.80zl to the Pound but from then on expect a decline to more like 6zl or even 7zl to the Pound.
Any thoughts from the forum or is this just speculation - this conversation came about because friends over in Poland have some income in Pounds and of course grumble about getting a bad exchange rate.

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Mar 16, 10, 14:18 #2

Smokeyone:

as an example you might get 4.20zl to the Pound today and maybe in a years time you might get 3.80zl to the Pound but from then on expect a decline to more like 6zl or even 7zl to the Pound.

The Zloty is considered undervalued at the current rate to EUR - though the Zloty/Pound level seems to be about right. You probably won't see the Zloty breaking 4zl/1 Pound, but it should strengthen against the Euro a little bit more - maybe to 3.7, 3.8.

You definitely won't see a crash as far as 6zl or 7zl to the Pound - but you will probably see wild swinging between 4-5zl for the forseeable future.

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Edited by: SeanBM Mar 16, 10, 14:42 #3

Smokeyone:

is this just speculation

Of course it is speculation.

Smokeyone:

this conversation came about because friends over in Poland have some income in Pounds and of course grumble about getting a bad exchange rate.

I think your friends have good reason to hope for such an exchange rate.

delphiandomine:

The Zloty is considered undervalued at the current rate to EUR - though the Zloty/Pound level seems to be about right. You probably won't see the Zloty breaking 4zl/1 Pound, but it should strengthen against the Euro a little bit more - maybe to 3.7, 3.8.

You definitely won't see a crash as far as 6zl or 7zl to the Pound - but you will probably see wild swinging between 4-5zl for the forseeable future.

I agree with everything Delphi said here.

The Zloty was over valued when it was 3.3 to the Euro and was undervalued at 4.2.
I think 3.8 is the correct value but again this is speculation on my behalf.

The weakening of the Zloty was a contributing factor for Poland's continued growth during these troubled economic times, imports were more expensive, exports were cheaper for other countries to buy.

SmokeyoneThreads: 18 Posts: 63 Joined: Oct 25, 07 ♂	Mar 16, 10, 14:44 #4
I have some savings in Poland so when I visit (about every other month) I can either change more Pounds or withdraw out of savings. I was thinking of a cut off of 4zl to the Pound when I would start to withdraw savings but maybe I should be thinking of something like 4.10zl to the Pound as a cut off....

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 56 Posts: 5,262 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER ♂	Mar 16, 10, 16:22 #5
In my opinion anybody with Zloty funds should change into pounds asap, sit and wait theres around 20% to be made in probably less than four months.

Think Twice	Mar 16, 10, 17:43 #6
The ECB or whoever from Brussels should investigate the Polish economy and not just take it on face value what the Poles are telling them. Polands deficit is double to what they are claiming. Should be more like 12 zloty to the pound. lol.

SmokeyoneThreads: 18 Posts: 63 Joined: Oct 25, 07 ♂	Mar 16, 10, 18:58 #7
So in effect the exchange rate could go either way - but I have also heard that the Polish economy is not as good as the Polish government says it is.....

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 56 Posts: 5,262 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER ♂	Mar 16, 10, 19:09 #8
Smokeyone: So in effect the exchange rate could go either way Of course its a gamble.

Cardno85Threads: 33 Posts: 857 Joined: Jul 11, 08 MEMBER ♂	Mar 16, 10, 19:19 #9
Wroclaw Boy: Of course its a gamble Yes, it's like trading on the stock market. And there are a lot of people who trade their currencies as if they are stocks and shares. I always use a currency trade site for checking current rates http://xe.com

Think Twice

Mar 16, 10, 19:33 #10

Smokeyone:

but I have also heard that the Polish economy is not as good as the Polish government says it is.....

Like I said.... someone should investigate.

I travel around Europe and can not get my head around what the Poles are claiming.
Quite frankly I think someones telling " porky pies ", ( lies ).

On the time I spend in Poland, I would like to add that the country still lacks the efficiency of western society.

GREECE ? ACT BEFORE IT,S TOO LATE !!!

ZiemowitThreads: 10 Posts: 1,056 Joined: May 8, 09 ♂	Mar 16, 10, 19:53 #11
Think Twice: Polands deficit is double to what they are claiming. Could you please specify any figures? What's Poland's deficit now and who says it should be double this figure and why?

Think Twice	Mar 16, 10, 20:04 #12
Ziemowit: Could you please specify any figures? What's Poland's deficit now and who says it should be double this figure and why? Don,t give me this prove it crap, and provide links etc. (very repetitive on this site.) You live in Poland, so you should know the answers or be able to find them easier than me. Here,s a tip............. go outside your front door and see for yourself.

SokratesThreads: 19 Posts: 4,464 Joined: Jan 19, 09 ♂ [Suspended]	Mar 16, 10, 20:49 #13
Think Twice: Here,s a tip............. go outside your front door and see for yourself. I did, got a nice look over my city, nothing to indicate deficit :)))

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Mar 16, 10, 21:16 #14

SeanBM:

I think 3.8 is the correct value but again this is speculation on my behalf.

Yep, agreed. With it, a rate of around 4.5-4.7zl to the pound sounds about right - the only reason why it's hovering around 4.2 at the minute is because the Pound is artificially weak - exactly the same situation as when the Zloty was hanging around at 5.25 a few months ago.

Wroclaw Boy:

In my opinion anybody with Zloty funds should change into pounds asap, sit and wait theres around 20% to be made in probably less than four months.

Mmm. If there's a change of government, then there's going to be an immediate rise in the value of the Pound. But if there's a hung government, then it might collapse even further - though as you say, there's a good chunk of cash to be made by just hanging on in there.

Think Twice:

Here,s a tip............. go outside your front door and see for yourself.

I did. Plenty of money flying around Poznan at the minute.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08 ♂	Mar 16, 10, 21:40 #15
I don't think the Polish currency is the currency of the future, it never was nor will be, I don't think Poland with a population of 38 million people will influence the world economic market, the US and Zlote has always fluctuated, in the summer time the dollar goes down due to more tourist dollars in the country and in winter it goes up, It will continue to be between 2.4 to 3zl per dollar.

SeanBMThreads: 41 Posts: 8,647 Joined: Mar 10, 08 ♂	Mar 16, 10, 21:43 #16
bolek: I don't think the Polish currency is the currency of the future Are you talking about Poland joining the Euro? That is the plan, although I have not had a look at when the next time they will think about actually joining.

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Apr 29, 10, 00:20 #17

SeanBM:

I think 3.8 is the correct value but again this is speculation on my behalf.

Looks like 3.8/3.9 is indeed the natural level for the Zloty. It hasn't really moved much at all over the last month - and I cannot see any justification for it to weaken, or indeed strengthen. It does seem about the right level - roughly about 8 zloty for a beer in a German bar, or 15zl for a dish in an average cheap Chinese restaurant in Berlin.

However, the Zloty/Pound relationship is absolutely neurotic and unpredictable, but this has been the same way ever since the Zloty became convertible in the first place.

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Edited by: Ziemowit Apr 29, 10, 13:05 #18

From what I've read in the Polish press, the Zloty has weakened following the Euro dropping as a result of the aggreviating crisis in Greece.

The Greek drama currently being staged on the financial scene suggests that other EU currencies may be seen in line with the strength of the common currency.

Part of the Greek troop may soon be moving to Portugal and Italy and Spain to help prepare the national versions of the play, so there stands a good chance for the tickets in euros for this not-so-"classical" performance to get cheaper still. Some even say the UK authorities would be quite happy to invite the Greek troop to stage their famous piece in The West End.

FrankThreads: 27 Posts: 1,342 Joined: Aug 14, 06 ♂	Apr 29, 10, 20:19 #19
Emmm......hows about no-one knows......................plain and simple......and theres nothing ANYONE on this board can do to alter its appreciation.......or depreciation.........end of.... F

jarnowaThreads: 5 Posts: 797 Joined: Nov 21, 09 ♂	Apr 29, 10, 21:35 #20
interesting topic. :) Smokeyone: opion of friends in Poland that the economy is heading for trouble what trouble do they expect?

delphiandomineThreads: 39 Posts: 9,571 Joined: Nov 25, 08 ♂	Apr 30, 10, 00:03 #21
Frank: hows about no-one knows Well, you can make a pretty educated guess based on what's happened previously and the fundamentals of the market. Right now for instance would seem to be a very sensible time to bet against the Zloty in relation to the Pound - if the Conservatives win, then the Zloty will weaken against the (artificially) weak Pound.

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Apr 30, 10, 15:07 #22

Then, if this assumption is true, we should talk of a strenghtening Pound rather than of a weakening Zloty, as the Pound would appreciate against all other curriencies, not the Zloty alone.

I don't believe in the theory of the artificially weak Pound. It is still too major a currency to be kept artificially low for so long. In other words, the economic prospects for the UK are judged rather "modest" by the markets, so they do not think high of the Pound. Do you think the Tory Party back in government will change the judgement of these prospects dramatically? And what if Nick Clegg wins, will it be equally good for the Pound as the victory of David Cameron?

Just for the matter of record: the British Pound is valued at 4,50 Zloty today, the Euro at 3.91, and the US Dollar at 2,94.

MEMBER ♂

Apr 30, 10, 17:56 #23

Wroclaw Boy:

In my opinion anybody with Zloty funds should change into pounds asap, sit and wait theres around 20% to be made in probably less than four months.

When i posted this the exchange rate was about 4.17 PLN to the pound, today its 4.50, so a 1000 PLN would have made a profit of £17, wey hey. Might have been worth it on 100,000 PLN for a £1700 profit. I still think it will improve though.

Cant believe it was 7 PLN to the pound when i first became aware back around 2002.

MEMBER ♂

May 5, 10, 10:09 #24

Wroclaw Boy:

Wroclaw Boy:
In my opinion anybody with Zloty funds should change into pounds asap, sit and wait theres around 20% to be made in probably less than four months.
When i posted this the exchange rate was about 4.17 PLN to the pound, today its 4.50, so a 1000 PLN would have made a profit of £17, wey hey. Might have been worth it on 100,000 PLN for a £1700 profit. I still think it will improve though.

If anybodys interested its getting more lucrative for anybody with sterling - FX rate today is 4.71 pln - £1, up from 4.50 five days ago.

Is it time to change up those pounds? Im thinking yes, but it'll still go more.

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May 5, 10, 10:30 #25

Wroclaw Boy:

Is it time to change up those pounds? Im thinking yes, but it'll still go more.

It'll be interesting, I don't want to make the call at all because it depends what happens - I can't see the markets reacting positively to a Labour win on Thursday. I also suspect that part of the reason for the Zloty weakening against the Pound is because the Zloty is seen as joined to the Euro - the PLN/GBP rate has always been more unpredictable and wild than the EUR/PLN rate.

Mind you, a decisive Tory victory on Thursday might easily push it to 5PLN/1 Pound.

cheapsgate

May 5, 10, 10:56 #26

Wroclaw Boy:

Cant believe it was 7 PLN to the pound when i first became aware back around 2002.

Yeah me to, those were the good old days before entrance into the EU. It was like the character "Loads of Money", you never really checked the prices of goods, you just brought them because they were deemed to be so cheap. It was like "cigarette heaven" to smokers and non-smokers, that alone paid for you vacation.

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 56 Posts: 5,262 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER ♂	May 5, 10, 13:41 #27
Wroclaw Boy: Is it time to change up those pounds? Im thinking yes, Scrap that its going up all the time, best wait till tomorrow.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08 ♂	May 5, 10, 23:37 #28
Ziemowit: and the US Dollar at 2,94. its now 3.10 and rising,, this will make Poland attractive for the tourist and property buyers.

nauczyciel	May 6, 10, 08:35 #29
1.00 CAD = 3.10810 PLN Canada Dollars Poland Zlotych 1 CAD = 3.10810 PLN 1 PLN = 0.321740 CAD Just last week the CAD was worth 2.90zl. 1.00 USD = 3.21093 PLN United States Dollars Poland Zlotych 1 USD = 3.21093 PLN 1 PLN = 0.311437 USD 8:33 GMT+1 6/5/10

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 56 Posts: 5,262 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER ♂	May 6, 10, 09:28 #30
Its 4.83 to the pound right now, im off to the kantor to change up the cash asap. If Labour stays in governemnt it will come crashing back down again.

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