Next 100 years - Poland as great power?

IronsideThreads: 56 Posts: 6,196 Joined: Feb 26, 09 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 02:10 #1
What do you think? Discuss!

MareGaeaThreads: 45 Posts: 5,529 Joined: Feb 6, 08 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 02:14 #2
Hm, unless Poland's geographical position changes once again to a more strategic and commercially attractive location, I don't see it happening. >^..^< M-G (goodnight)

frdThreads: 8 Posts: 1,956 Joined: Feb 3, 09 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 02:21 #3
Ironside: What do you think? Discuss! I've got this globe, it's actually mate of paper with a lamp inside, lulz at the fake patriotism!!!!!!

Sire BrensharThreads: 1 Posts: 86 Joined: Jan 23, 10 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 04:58 #4
"the boundary between Europe and Russia is Poland" But of course, no wonder it will become a world power! -How can he expect himself to be taken seriously? (Though it would be rather nice)

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 07:05 #5
Jesus christ Friedman is a hack. F16s=great power? watch out, because Oman and Pakistan are coming up quick... It's sad to watch Strafor eat itself like this.

♂

Edited by: plk123 Jun 11, 10, 09:04 #6

MareGaea:

Hm, unless Poland's geographical position changes once again to a more strategic and commercially attractive location, I don't see it happening.

being in the middle is the best geographical location one would ever want.. Poland has a great potential to be a great power in the future but that depends on too many factors.. if the other Kaczka gets elected, then i doubt it. :)

Sire Brenshar:

-How can he expect himself to be taken seriously?

how does that lack sense?

convex:

F16s=great power?

it's more then that..

♂

Jun 11, 10, 09:16 #7

The United States of Europe will be a super power, just give it another 20 years when Europe has one language and one currency. People will fly the European flag from their homes and talk passionately about being European. They will call Europe their home and sing traditional European songs from the European song contests of days gone by. Poland on it's own will not be a super power. Neither will any other European county on it's own, those days are long gone. Poland, France and Germany will all be major states in the United States of Europe. Then in thirty years time Russia will join the Union, a few years later Russia will devour Poland once more, then Germany, Austria, France and so on and so on, until the rebirth of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic once again rules the world!...........

O my God, I'm going to move to the Isle of Wight and keep out of it....

alexw68

Jun 11, 10, 10:06 #8

It's a social and cultural rather than geographical issue. If allowed to, anything could happen.

It will take, at least, the following:

- an entire generation of old-school politicking to go out to grass
- full tolerance, nay, acceptance, of ethnic/religious minorities (I'm not trying to be PC here - this is just an inference from the last time Poland WAS a, if not the, major European power, in the Middle Ages)
- partial disestablishment of the Church (whose moral guidance, but NOT political influence, would remain welcome)
- Reject the 19th-century ideology of patriotism that underscores - even now - so much political and social discourse and make Kazimierz Wielki, not the novels of Stefan frickin' Zeromski, the guiding star
- Give the younger generation its chance. They've earnt it...

southernThreads: 116 Posts: 10,895 Joined: May 17, 07 ♂	Edited by: southern Jun 11, 10, 10:20 #9
You should be happy if Poland even exists in next 100 years.

alexw68	Jun 11, 10, 10:36 #10
You should be happy if Poland even exists in next 100 years. ... but not surprised. Poland's prospects in that regard are far healthier than those of its former occupier: http://www.russia-ic.com/news/show/3618/

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 15:01 #11
alexw68: ... but not surprised. Poland's prospects in that regard are far healthier than those of its former occupier: A country with vast natural resources, enough nuclear weapons to get the job done, and a shrinking population that is concentrated in urban centers. Yea, whew, what a crappy position to be in.

AmathystThreads: 30 Posts: 3,898 Joined: Nov 10, 06 ♀	Jun 11, 10, 15:11 #12
convex: A country with vast natural resources, enough nuclear weapons to get the job done, and a shrinking population that is concentrated in urban centers. Yea, whew, what a crappy position to be in. LOL..not laughing at you..laughing with you..I think some people just dream of the demise of Russia, but I dont think that's coming any time soon.

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 15:18 #13
I think some Poles wish to be all alone in Europe with the old countries dying away and the void filled by muslim breeds...

alexw68

Edited by: alexw68 Jun 11, 10, 15:53 #14

Amathyst: I think some people just dream of the demise of Russia

No dreams. Extrapolate the population decline figures from the last link I posted and it's down there with some of the more AIDS-ravaged African republics.

Convex: A country with vast natural resources

...whose 'primitive' (Medvedev's own word) commodity-based economy goes up and down like a tart's drawers along with the price of peak oil;

enough nuclear weapons to get the job done

... enough of a land army to get the job done in Chechnya, too. Yeah, that worked, didn't it?

and a shrinking population that is concentrated in urban centers

When the urban center in question is a sink-hole like Perm or Chelabinsk the usual nostrums don't really apply. Add to that the increasingly evident point that all modern economies are taking from the next generation to finance this one, population growth is a silent premise, and one that seriously doesn't hold in Russia. The male life expectancy rate is 57 and falling, fertility rates too. Not a winning combination.

Yea, whew, what a crappy position to be in.

Come off it, you sound like one of those fifth columnists Stalin invited to Russia in the 30s who wrote back in wonder at the model society they could see 50 meters either side of the railway track.

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 17:06 #15
Poland doesn't have charismatic figures who will make it a major power on the international stage. It doesn't have the attributes of a Russia or a Poland. Those countries have people that pushed those countries into a position of immense strength.

1jolaThreads: 33 Posts: 2,739 Joined: Sep 23, 08 ♂	Jun 11, 10, 17:22 #16
Seanus: Poland doesn't have charismatic figures who will make it a major power on the international stage. Outside of Sikorski, I don't think we have anyone who speaks English or...Mandarin.

♀

Jun 11, 10, 18:21 #17

Poland won't become a major player in world's politics with the way things are right now. There's just nothign that would set us apart from other European countries, we're too average. I see several options that might change it:
1. We find a lot of oil on our lands
2. We start a mass production of rare, high-quality, valuable items (technology, not ham. Nobody gets a world acclaim for pig farms)
3. We change the way we look at politics (as in:we stop electing people based on their level of patriotism instead of actual qualifications and shaping our foreign relations through the prism of likes and dislikes rather than profit)
4. There's a third world war. That would change a lot of things in politics and economy.

MareGaeaThreads: 45 Posts: 5,529 Joined: Feb 6, 08 ♂	Edited by: MareGaea Jun 12, 10, 00:44 #18
plk123: Poland has a great potential It does, but not as far as maritime trade is concerned. Malign Danes can block off Polish maritime trade from the rest of the world any time they want to. That would be very easy to do. Just close off the Kattegatt and Poland cannot reach any other country than Germany, Russia, Finland and Sweden. >^..^< M-G (wants to see more football)

southernThreads: 116 Posts: 10,895 Joined: May 17, 07 ♂	Jun 12, 10, 11:52 #19
Poland does not have long time strategy like Russia and is always restricted to second actor role.

IronsideThreads: 56 Posts: 6,196 Joined: Feb 26, 09 ♂	Jun 12, 10, 22:08 #20
Actually I don't think that Freedman is right in his predictions as material gains are not only ones that matters. Also, defence on USA interests could be dangerous not beneficial.

CrowThreads: 365 Posts: 7,190 Joined: Feb 14, 07 ♂	Jun 13, 10, 00:59 #21
Next 100 years - Poland as great power? i really hope so or else.... we are all doomed

♀

Jun 13, 10, 01:14 #22

vetala:

1. We find a lot of oil on our lands

You better start drilling ;0)

vetala:

4. There's a third world war. That would change a lot of things in politics and economy.

No such thing, we'll just flatten each other - THE END! The EU was invented for a reason, we're all friends now - who do you suggest we fight with and for what reason?

southern:

Poland does not have long time strategy like Russia and is always restricted to second actor role.

Poland has no influence or hard cash, therefore they will never be a major player.

ShawnHThreads: 9 Posts: 3,001 Joined: Jul 2, 09 ♂	Jun 13, 10, 01:57 #23
vetala: 1. We find a lot of oil on our lands Most of it coming from the gulf of Mexico?

♂

Jun 13, 10, 05:14 #24

alexw68:

...whose 'primitive' (Medvedev's own word) commodity-based economy goes up and down like a tart's drawers along with the price of peak oil;

A primitive self sustaining cash rich economy which is building itself at a fairly rapid pace even despite the business climate. That primitive economy is diversifying at a very fast rate.

Would you rather be sitting on half of the worlds commodities, or not?

alexw68:

... enough of a land army to get the job done in Chechnya, too. Yeah, that worked, didn't it?

The military doesn't work as a police force, that's not exactly surprising. Any major wars will involve flying boom tubes.

alexw68:

When the urban center in question is a sink-hole like Perm or Chelabinsk the usual nostrums don't really apply. Add to that the increasingly evident point that all modern economies are taking from the next generation to finance this one, population growth is a silent premise, and one that seriously doesn't hold in Russia. The male life expectancy rate is 57 and falling, fertility rates too. Not a winning combination.

Russia is managing to get its population off of the welfare state opium, and paying back it's debts. Male life expectancy is 61, and rising. Urban centers like Novosibirsk, Vladivostok, Rostov, Volgograd (not to mention the big boys)... Do you know anyone holding Russian debt? The minute it's issued, it's snapped up, and then matures incredibly quickly. I know a country holding massive amounts of foreign debt and one of the worlds largest foreign currency reserves, give you a hint, rhymes with mussia.

alexw68:

Come off it, you sound like one of those fifth columnists Stalin invited to Russia in the 30s who wrote back in wonder at the model society they could see 50 meters either side of the railway track.

With all those pesky facts? That's what's on the table, and we're discussing long term. Will Europe and the US be able to continue borrowing their way to prosperity? Latest bond sales weren't looking too hot... What you fail to understand is that Russia is only interested in the 50 meters on either side of the track. Would you suggest that the future lies in the worlds largest debtor nations, or the worlds largest creditor nations?

♂

Edited by: rychlik Jun 15, 10, 07:32 #25

MareGaea:

Malign Danes can block off Polish maritime trade from the rest of the world any time they want to.

And why would the Danes do this? This is a foolish anti-Polish statement.
Check this out. History in 20 year cycles. If you think the world will be remotely the same in 20 years because of how things are now, then you are the dummy:
1900- London is the center of the universe. Europe is enjoying unprecedented prosperity and is at peace. A peaceful, prosperous Europe many thought would rule the world.

1920- Europe has been torn apart by a vicious war. The Austro-Hungarian, Russian, German and Ottoman empires had vanished. Millions lost their lives. Communism dominated Russia. America and Japan emerged as powers. The peace treaty imposed on Germany made sure it would not re-emerge.

1940- Germany has re-emerged and re-armed itself. Allied with Commie Russia, it is bringing destruction to Europe once again. Countries like Poland and France are quickly invaded. The bloodiest war in history has just begun.

1960- Germany was crushed in the war that lasted 6 years. Europe was occupied and divided by the USA and Russia. The USA emerged as a super power, controlling all the worlds oceans. Russia was second.

1980- the Americans were defeated in a war- by Communist North Vietnam. It was also expelled from Iran and it looked like the Soviets were about to take the oil sands. To contain them, the USA forms an alliance with Maoist China.

2000- the Soviet Union had collapsed, Europe was "free" once again, China was still Communist in name but Capitalist in practice. NATO had advanced into Eastern Europe (ex. Poland), surrounding Russia, once only a dream.

Then September 11 happened and the world turned on it's head again. The USA went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan, Poland helping in this of course, and currently in 2010 the conflicts are still going on. There was a pesky recession all over the world. Europe was deeply affected YET Poland manages to keep it's head above water projecting economic growth. Who would have predicted this? Who knows what the consequences of these events will be by the year 2020 (the two wars + recession + the unknown)? Greece is disintegrating and Spain and Italy might get hit too. You anti-Polish Jews/Anglos have to realize that eras come and go. Countries rise and fall in the ranks all the time. Slavs deserve a bit of the pie as well.

Poland is moving in the right direction. They've achieved a lot in the last 20 years. Their alliance with the USA can only strengthen them- economically and militarily because of things like technology transfers. Countries like Germany once benefited from this too. I don't care if Poland never produces Porsches as long as they diversify their economy and not rely solely on exporting. Poland should concentrate on a good standard of living and the rest will fall into place. I think they are much better at achieving this than the bloody Russians ever will.

All of you jealous anti-Polish westerners can suck it. You know who you guys are. You never have anything good to say.

SokratesThreads: 19 Posts: 4,464 Joined: Jan 19, 09 ♂ [Suspended]	Jun 15, 10, 12:22 #26
convex: A primitive self sustaining cash rich economy which is building itself at a fairly rapid pace even despite the business climate. That primitive economy is diversifying at a very fast rate. Rubbish 1.0.1. convex: Russia is managing to get its population off of the welfare state opium Russia cant maintain welfare so it lets people starve simple as that.

joepilsudskiThreads: 44 Posts: 2,521 Joined: Apr 27, 07 ♂	Jun 28, 10, 17:07 #27
Next 100 Years: Poland Wins World Cup

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂	Jun 29, 10, 11:23 #28
In rowing maybe, Joe. Komorowski flatly refused entry to Waweł as he said he'd only go in with Donald Tusk. Lepper and Giertych reveal their 'extracurricular activities' and get it off their chests. Palikot falls off the nearest cliff. Poland as a great power? Nope, the globalists will bring them down based on current appointments.

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