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Other pilots' perspectives on the Katyń crash?


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skysoulmateThreads: 41
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Edited by: skysoulmate  Apr 16, 10, 12:29    #1
Very saddened by the Katyń crash and was wondering if there were other aviators (convex?) here who could share their views on the subject.


I’ve been very busy and have managed to stay away from PF for a while. The aircraft tragedy compelled me to check back in…

What an incredibly sad story. I will keep my thoughts and my prayers with the victims and their friends and relatives.

It’s so ironic it all happened on the 70th anniversary of Katyń mass murders. (full disclosure - a distant relative of ours was killed there).

I think it’s extremely sad and ironic that Ryszard Kaczorowski died on the very same flight as Anna Walentynowicz – on their way to Katyń.

Ryszard Kaczorowski, the last President of Poland in exile who resigned from his position following Poland's regaining independence from the Soviet sphere of influence and election of Lech Wałęsa as the first democratically-elected president together with Anna Walentynowicz, whose firing in August 1980 from the Lenin Shipyards in Gdansk sparked a workers' strike that spurred the eventual creation of the Solidarity freedom movement.

The past and the future of Poland - all on the same flight…
:(


As far as the accident itself…

I find it remarkable that Putin is now “in charge” of the accident investigation. Aviation safety agencies such as the NTSB, the European Aviation Safety Agency, the British Air Accidents Investigation Branch, the Transportation Safety Board of Canada , or Bureau d'Enquêtes et d'Analyses pour la Sécurité de l'Aviation Civile of France, etc., are supposed to be very independent agencies that resist influence from airlines, aircraft manufacturers and governments.

To have a prime minister (in this case a de facto Tsar) take charge of an aircraft accident investigation is simply strange and will probably create all kinds of rumors and conspiracy theories. I am sure it was a well meant gesture to show how important this issue is to the Russian government but in my view it will backfire.

Also, the accident just happened yet some Russian investigators are already stating it was caused by pilot error? Most investigations take months to complete, tons of data to be analyzed, voice recording synched to the computer and engine read-outs, etc. Apparently an “investigation” only takes hours in Russia…

Note, I too believe this very well may be a pilot error BUT I would expect an official agency to be much more reserved in their comments until the full investigation is complete.


While looking into this accident I found some old articles where Kaczynski supposedly was micromanaging his pilots; in fact he once tried to demote a captain who refused to land at an airfield he deemed unsafe. I don’t want to say bad things about a person who cannot defend himself anymore but IF true then all I can say is WOW!

How about the meaning of the term PIC – Pilot-in-COMMAND!? How can a layperson question a profession pilot’s decision making? I sure hope those were untrue rumors about Kaczynski.


The crew apparently made 3 approaches and crashed on the 4th attempt. While there’s no official rule on how many attempts you can make (it's based on fuel reserves) this is highly unusual. Most pilots would give it 1 or maybe 2 shots and then divert. It seems like those pilots felt very pressed into “making it in.”


I believe that a TU-154 is just slightly larger than a Boeing 727? The 727-200 model is certified for a minimum landing distance of 5,080 ft or 1,585 meters but most airlines use a 6,000 foot minimum so assuming the TU 154 was about the same size I’d say for planning purposes the 8,200ft or 2,500 meter runway was plenty long (I’m assuming it was the XUBS Smolensk base they went to?) I know they never made it that far but it’s interesting to see their (assumed) thought process.


This link has some very good graphics showing the accident but it also made me wonder...

http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/Wiadomosci/1,80269,7761040,Zobacz__jak_dos zlo_do_tragedii_prezydenckiego_samolotu.html

Haven’t been able to look up the available instrument approaches in Smolensk yet but I wonder what options they had? Did they “shoot” an ILS (precision approach used when the visibility is low) or was it (very doubtful) a non-precision approach such as VOR, GPS, NDB, etc.? Surely they must have used a precision approach. I can’t even imagine using an NDB for a fogged-in airport, NDB approaches are old school, WWII approaches made for slower aircraft. It’s a good backup but airline pilots very seldom use them.

The temp was 1C and so was the due point, good indication of fog. Normally a category IIIB approach should be utilized (can land with almost no visibility but might need towing to the ramp) but I am not sure if that airplane was category III equipped (standard cat I is basically a 200 foot approach).

I also wonder if they were using the autopilot? I’m wondering because apparently when they engaged the “altitude hold” the airplane continued down for another 100 feet or so. That’s pretty normal as the inertia of descending basically takes a few seconds to overcome. Most often pilots press the alt hold button a few hundred feet prior to the “bottom” altitude and then fine tune the altitude with the vertical speed selector. I wonder if they pushed the button a few seconds too late because I have hard time believing they’d intentionally “bust the minimums”. That’s just a no-no, especially in transport category aircraft. Even if they did, why were they offset from the runway’s centerline? Was the ILS beacon offset too? Doesn’t make sense to me… Again, don’t have the charts in front of me.



Sorry if my post uses lots of aviation lingo; this accident “hit home”. Supposed to be very discrete with any identifying info online but will say that i’m a former full-time military aviator and now part-time military (air national guard) and full time commercial pilot (standard progression in the States). Recently I transitioned to a new airframe; in the airline world have flown primarily heavy Boeing aircraft.



My thoughts and prayers go out to all the victims of this tragedy, may they all rest in peace.


To the pilots of this fateful flight…

May strong tailwinds carry you all the way to pilots’ Valhalla.

By John Gillespie Magee Jr.

High Flight
Oh! I have slipped the surly bonds of Earth
And danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings;
Sunward I’ve climbed, and joined the tumbling mirth
of sun-split clouds, — and done a hundred things
You have not dreamed of—wheeled and soared and swung
High in the sunlit silence. Hov’ring there,
I’ve chased the shouting wind along, and flung
My eager craft through footless halls of air....
Up, up the long, delirious, burning blue
I’ve topped the wind-swept heights with easy grace
Where never lark nor even eagle flew—
And, while with silent lifting mind I’ve trod
The high untrespassed sanctity of space,
Put out my hand, and touched the face of God.


hairballThreads: 37
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 Apr 16, 10, 12:33    #2
A member of the Russian investigation team has said that there is no evidence that any of the passengers of the doomed plane that crashed last Saturday killing all 96 on board forced the pilot to land at Smolensk airport.


More here
convexThreads: 46
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 Apr 16, 10, 12:34    #3
hairball:
More here


Not direct pressure. After they blame the flight crew, they need to answer the question of why they made the decisions that they did.
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 Apr 16, 10, 12:37    #4
And so the game of 'pin the blame on the pilot' begins.
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 Apr 16, 10, 12:40    #5
Harry:
And so the game of 'pin the blame on the pilot' begins.


My exact thought when I read the article.
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 Apr 16, 10, 12:42    #6
Awesome idea for a thread!
convexThreads: 46
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 Apr 16, 10, 12:53    #7
Good to see you back, I was waiting for you to pop up.

skysoulmate:
I find it remarkable that Putin is now “in charge” of the accident investigation.


He's just coordinating it. The idea behind it being that with Putin "in charge", you won't have some middle manager holding up any bureaucratic details (information release for instance, or allowing Polish investigators the access they need to do their job). I don't think it's sinister as much as pragmatic.

skysoulmate:
Also, the accident just happened yet some Russian investigators are already stating it was caused by pilot error?


Remember, there are no official reports from the Russian investigation team that it was pilot error. There are various people giving interviews with their opinions, ATC, pilots, etc.

skysoulmate:
How about the meaning of the term PIC – Pilot-in-COMMAND!? How can a layperson question a profession pilot’s decision making? I sure hope those were untrue rumors about Kaczynski.


Once pilot error is established, I'm curious to see the Polish AF review. It's not the first time this has happened, and it seems that there is a serious problem with risk management and rule enforcement in the Polish AF. For instance, what is the policy when an aircrew breaks the law (descending below minimums for instance) in order to complete the mission? Is that punished? What changes were implemented as a result of the Miroslawiec accident? What happened as a result of the Tblisi incident?

skysoulmate:
The crew apparently made 3 approaches and crashed on the 4th attempt. While there’s no official rule on how many attempts you can make (based on fuel reserves) this is highly unusual. Most pilots would give it 1 or maybe 2 shots and then divert. It seems like those pilots felt very pressed into “making it in.”


They're now saying it was a single approach, the reported "3 previous approaches" was the plane turning during the approach.

skysoulmate:
Haven’t been able to look up the available instrument approaches in Smolensk yet but I wonder what options they had? Did they “shoot” an ILS (precision approach used when the visibility is low) or was it (very doubtful) a non-precision approach such as VOR, GPS, NDB, etc.? Surely they must have used a precision approach. I can’t even imagine using an NDB for a fogged-in airport, NDB approaches are old school, WWII approaches made for slower aircraft. It’s a good backup but airline pilots very seldom use them.


There's no ILS at Smolensk, there is however an NDB approach and from what I understand, there's also talk about a PAR approach at UUBS. No approach lighting...

skysoulmate:
I wonder if they pushed the button a few seconds too late because I have hard time believing they’d intentionally “bust the minimums”. That’s just a no-no, especially in transport category aircraft. Even if they did, why were they offset from the runway’s centerline?


There's also the question of QFE/QNH... There was some discussion about TAWS and the accuracy of the maps. Regardless of all that, wouldn't the radar altimeter still be warning about the height? There's talk that the crew knew what was happening in the final couple of seconds before impact.

pprune has a good discussion going on this with some Polish and Russian pilots contributing.
convexThreads: 46
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 Apr 16, 10, 12:59    #8
I've posted it a couple of times already, but it's worth repeating.

The pilot flew the plane into the ground, we know that much.

Why he flew it into the ground, that's the question that needs to be answered. Just because no one came onto the flight deck and ordered the crew to land doesn't mean there wasn't pressure to put it down. I would like to see how the Polish AF punishes pilots that break the law in order to complete the mission. What changes were implemented after the Miroslawic and Tblisi incident? I think they'll find out that there is a problem with the AF itself. Now would be the time to change the culture, as the commander of the AF was on that plane, and they could make the changes without having to fire any of the leadership...
DannyJThreads: 1
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 Apr 16, 10, 13:03    #9
Harry:
And so the game of 'pin the blame on the pilot' begins.


And you really think the poles will blame "Duckboy"?
convexThreads: 46
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 Apr 16, 10, 13:12    #10
DannyJ:
And you really think the poles will blame "Duckboy"?


It wasn't his fault. Even if he went into the cockpit and demanded that they land the plane, it's not his plane. There should be a law on the books to publicly censure anyone attempting to influence a pilots decision on a VIP flight, and to publicly commend any aircrews for resisting pressure and performing their duties. Unfortunately, that's not going to happen...
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 Apr 16, 10, 13:12    #11
DannyJ:
And you really think the poles will blame "Duckboy"?

That's 'Saint Duckboy' these days.
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Edited by: DannyJ  Apr 16, 10, 13:16    #12
convex:
It wasn't his fault. Even if he went into the cockpit and demanded that they land the plane, it's not his plane. There should be a law on the books to publicly censure anyone attempting to influence a pilots decision on a VIP flight, and to publicly commend any aircrews for resisting pressure and performing their duties. Unfortunately, that's not going to happen...


One hour after it happened I said he had a hand in his own death, I stick by that.
convexThreads: 46
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 Apr 16, 10, 13:18    #13
"The pilot was determined to stick to arrangements made earlier and uphold his duties for the safety of his passengers," said Mr Klich. "You have to remember that he was responsible for not only 40 people but three presidents and one prime minister.

"We had no idea whether an aircraft could fly to Tbilisi, and whether it could land there," he continued.

"There was a risk it could have been shot down."

After landing in Azerbaijan, and facing the prospect of an arduous four-hour car journey to Tbilisi, Mr Kaczynski rounded on the pilot, who has not been named and has been apparently suffering from depression since the incident.

Press reports say that the president lambasted the officer for his "cowardice", and added that he said he would "deal with this matter when we get home".

That should have been publicly shamed. How full of yourself do you have to be to make those comments? That alone should be reason to block the gates in Krakow. Severely lacking in the decision making department....
hairballThreads: 37
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 Apr 16, 10, 14:03    #14
It would seem to me that after what happened in Georgia, the pilot decided he didn't want to be labelled a cowered, so he decided to kill everyone instead.
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 Apr 16, 10, 14:15    #15
It's not going to be easy proving that the pilot was pressured.
That pressure might have started all the way back at that pilot's job interview.
And keep in mind, one of the integral skills of a pilot is to be able to make a correct decision no matter what the pressure is.
OlgaThreads: 2
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 Apr 16, 10, 14:54    #16
f stop:
It's not going to be easy proving that the pilot was pressured.

Damn right it won't be. Conclusions like that cannot be drawn out of thin air just because it suits somebody's agenda.

"Polish pilot was not pressured to land -prosecutor"
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63B2Q820100412
convexThreads: 46
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 Apr 16, 10, 15:12    #17
Olga:
Damn right it won't be. Conclusions like that cannot be drawn out of thin air just because it suits somebody's agenda.


No, you'd have to look at past events that happened, and how they were handled. You'd have to look at things like air force policy in dealing with the times that laws were broken in order to complete the mission.
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 Apr 16, 10, 15:12    #18
Glad to see you back, sky! :)

skysoulmate:
I find it remarkable that Putin is now “in charge” of the accident investigation.


I don't much like this fact either but I believe that was made rather than a sign of "hey, that tragedy is not ordinary for us and we're going investigate it at a high level". That's what I think. They would have to assign anybody from Russia to investigate it along with Polish and international specialists and I would have been surprised if they'd assigned Shoygu for that.

skysoulmate:
Also, the accident just happened yet some Russian investigators are already stating it was caused by pilot error? Most investigations take months to complete, tons of data to be analyzed, voice recording synched to the computer and engine read-outs, etc. Apparently an “investigation” only takes hours in Russia…


skysoulmate:
The crew apparently made 3 approaches and crashed on the 4th attempt. While there’s no official rule on how many attempts you can make (it's based on fuel reserves) this is highly unusual. Most pilots would give it 1 or maybe 2 shots and then divert. It seems like those pilots felt very pressed into “making it in.”


There were plenty of rumours spread by Media in the first couple days. Yesterday (or the day before) AFAIK the officials stated there was only one approach and kindly asked Media not to spread unchecked info.
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 Apr 16, 10, 16:31    #19
convex:
He's just coordinating it. The idea behind it being that with Putin "in charge", you won't have some middle manager holding up any bureaucratic details (information release for instance, or allowing Polish investigators the access they need to do their job). I don't think it's sinister as much as pragmatic.


Putin is probably the only man in Russia who has the power to dominate everyone and ensure that there's no funny business - he's not stupid, he knows that the Poles will pick up on every suspicious detail - who better to run such an investigation than a man who will find out what actually happened?

I also notice that there's been absolutely no reports of Polish investigators having problems - which tells you that Putin is doing a good job.
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 Apr 16, 10, 23:09    #20
skysoulmate:

I’ve been very busy and have managed to stay away from PF for a while.

I was worried you got soured by some of the posters/postings here.. glad to see that is not the case.. and glad you're back. :)

skysoulmate:
I sure hope those were untrue rumors about Kaczynski.

i don't think those are rumors.. i think they have been proven.. especially the trying to demote a pilot.. i've seen some articles on this.. doesn't seem like a rumor..

skysoulmate:
Was the ILS beacon offset too?

i'm thinking no ILS eq. at the airport..

skysoulmate:
Even if they did, why were they offset from the runway’s centerline?

they really blew that one.. there is a link to a great sat pic of the accident scene.. maybe convex posted it.. dunno.. but it's buried on one of the other threads about this tragedy.

convex:
No approach lighting...

ouch
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 Apr 17, 10, 00:13    #21
plk123:
they really blew that one.. there is a link to a great sat pic of the accident scene.. maybe convex posted it.. dunno.. but it's buried on one of the other threads about this tragedy.


I think you refer to this one?

tragedy
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 Apr 17, 10, 00:27    #22
skysoulmate: if you're interested in pilot's perspective, this link is pretty good. If you have not followed, it's probably most expedient to start from the end:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/411701-polish-government-tu154m-cra sh-35.html
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 Apr 17, 10, 02:09    #23
"Device spurs questions in Polish crash...The Polish jet that crashed short of a runway in fog, killing that nation's president and other top leaders, was equipped with a safety device that warns pilots when they get too close to the ground, the device's manufacturer said Tuesday.The existence of the device deepens the mystery of why the jet struck woods and exploded as pilots attempted to land Saturday at a Russian military airport, aviation safety experts said. If the safety device was working properly, it would be the first such crash of an aircraft equipped with the system since its introduction in the late 1990s."

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/2010-04-13-fog-plane-crash-pola nd_N.htm?POE=TRVISVA
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 Apr 17, 10, 02:16    #24
Olga, you should get hired by some institution of investigations... you spend way too much time on this...

what's your real reason to do so...?
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 Apr 17, 10, 02:38    #25
pgtx:
what's your real reason to do so...?

Truth, not lies, is the reason.
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Edited by: plk123  Apr 17, 10, 04:58    #26
RADO:
I think you refer to this one?

no, it was just a high quality satellite picture not a collage..

wildrover:
That guy hiding behind the tree in picture 6 looks a lot like Mr Putin...i hope Olga does not spot it....!!!

rofl
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 Apr 17, 10, 09:13    #27
z_darius:
They also admitted that TU-154 doesn't have fuel dumping capability.


Is this true?

Then why did Russia Today Television say the plane was dumping fuel?
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 Apr 17, 10, 09:54    #28
So, anton, what can you say about what happened on the day of 9/11? It's unfathomable and wholly inconceivable that they could have churned out so much, so quickly. How is it that they knew all about the pilots and perpetrators so soon? Their greed in selling BS stories got the better of them and exposed them badly.

Other pilots would likely support the view that an experienced pilot could easily have pulled off that landing. He knew what he was doing and, for some inexplicable reason, tilted the plane at a ghastly angle and plunged down after clipping trees. Even amateur pilots learn about evasive maneuvers and there is not a chance that he would have skirted around the top or flirted with the trees like he did. No way!!
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 Apr 17, 10, 09:57    #29
Seanus:
So, anton, what can you say about what happened on the day of 9/11? It's unfathomable and wholly inconceivable that they could have churned out so much, so quickly. How is it that they knew all about the pilots and perpetrators so soon? Their greed in selling BS stories got the better of them and exposed them badly.

Other pilots would likely support the view that an experienced pilot could easily have pulled off that landing. He knew what he was doing and, for some inexplicable reason, tilted the plane at a ghastly angle and plunged down after clipping trees. Even amateur pilots learn about evasive maneuvers and there is not a chance that he would have skirted around the top or flirted with the trees like he did. No way!!

Atta boy, Seanus...put the lad in his place. Love it!
SeanusThreads: 22
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 Apr 17, 10, 10:10    #30
I'm not an Atta boy ;) ;) He was a disgruntled Egyptian ;)

On a more serious note, you have to bring more to the table, anton. See beyond denial and you are off the starting blocks.

I find it hard to believe that the fog thickened to a material degree over a half-hour period. Even if it did, pilots don't just cancel flights or start panicking. They have onboard options in the cockpit which allow them to make their landing easier. A flight is a well-thought-out thing and they would have factored in fog and made provision accordingly. It wasn't like the crazy and almost impossible across-the-lawn maneuver near the Pentagon. You can hear pilots discussing this in the Italian documentary ZERO (in English) and also learn about flight paths (the video name escapes me) from a 90-min documentary on the angle of approach of the plane that went for the Pentagon. Plenty witnesses describe it. It's on Youtube.


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