PiS 2% behind PO.

Grzegorz_Threads: 81 Posts: 6,213 Joined: Nov 16, 06 ♂	Sep 11, 11, 21:00 #1
According to recent poll. http://wybory.onet.pl/parlamentarne-2011/aktualnosci/najnowszy-sondaz- pis-dogania-platforme,1,4845351,aktualnosc.html

gumishuThreads: 17 Posts: 3,943 Joined: Apr 6, 09 ♂	Sep 11, 11, 21:02 #2
just scare-mongering ;)

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,158 Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂	Sep 11, 11, 21:15 #3
Greg, are you familiar with Gallup or Mori polls? Compare some of their findings with actual results of elections. The same may apply here.

Grzegorz_Threads: 81 Posts: 6,213 Joined: Nov 16, 06 ♂	Sep 11, 11, 21:22 #4
Polls in Poland have been looking strange since a few years...

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Sep 11, 11, 22:35 #5

According to recent poll.

What's interesting about that poll is that around 20% are undecided - and that's likely to be those that don't know whether to vote PO/SLD or a small bloc. Unlike PiS, PO don't need to win those votes - they can form a coalition with either the PSL or SLD without too much difficulty.

PiS need to be polling (in the current political environment of 4 big parties and no-one else) around 40% in order to have a chance of forming a government. 29% isn't enough - and can you honestly imagine PiS going into any sort of coalition with the SLD?

Polls in Poland have been looking strange since a few years...

What's strange about them? They consistently show that not much has changed since 2007 - which would be about right. The only difference seems to be that depending on the day, people are either PO or undecided, nothing else.

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Sep 11, 11, 22:57 #6

remember one thing delphi - Mr Komorowski stated a couple of months a go that there is no guarantee the leader of the winning party receives his appoitment to be the prime minister of a goverment to be formed (there is no such obligation in the law so it's not outrageaous in the slightest) - what is important his words are though to be directed both to Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk - Komorowski and Tusk are not best buddies anymore Komorowski has some better buddies in the PO and even outside PO - Donald Tusk maybe in for a nasty surprise

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Edited by: delphiandomine Sep 11, 11, 23:09 #7

remember one thing delphi - Mr Komorowski stated a couple of months a go that there is no guarantee the leader of the winning party receives his appoitment to be the prime minister of a goverment to be formed (there is no such obligation in the law so it's not outrageaous in the slightest) - what is important his words are though to be directed both to Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk - Komorowski and Tusk are not best buddies anymore Komorowski has some better buddies in the PO and even outside PO - Donald Tusk maybe in for a nasty surprise

As I understand it, Poland works quite simply - whoever can get enough votes in the Sejm to be appointed Prime Minister is the one who has the right to form a government. It's fair enough really - I don't think the largest party should automatically have a 'right' to govern just because they're the largest party - it should be (as it is) - the person who can command the support of the Sejm.

It's definitely an interesting question - if Tusk can't manage to get enough votes with the PSL alone, what then? It's not entirely inconceivable that we could see a PO-SLD coalition with Napieralski as Prime Minister. Equally though - I could see a deal done with the SLD where the SLD (who have said recently that they're more interested in a balanced budget than spending) get some of their policies passed in exchange for supporting the bulk of PO's platform.

It's certainly interesting times ahead - I'm not convinced the PSL will manage to get enough votes to get into parliament.

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Sep 11, 11, 23:15 #8

As I understand it, Poland works quite simply - whoever can get enough votes in the Sejm to be appointed Prime Minister is the one who has the right to form a government. It's fair enough really - I don't think the largest party should automatically have a 'right' to govern just because they're the largest party - it should be (as it is) - the person who can command the support of the Sejm.

actually it is the president (solely) who appoints the Prime Minister - and he does as he wishes

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Edited by: delphiandomine Sep 11, 11, 23:26 #9

actually it is the president (solely) who appoints the Prime Minister - and he does as he wishes

Surely this is merely done if the Prime Minister has the power to win a vote of confidence in the Sejm?

Aha - Articles 154 and 155 in the Constitution make it clear. I guess the reality is that the President wouldn't appoint anyone if they didn't have the ability to win a vote of confidence in the Sejm, though.

Legally, as I read it - if the Presidential appointee fails to win a vote of confidence, then the Sejm must chose one (who must then hold a vote of confidence) - and if there's no Prime Minister chosen within 14 days, there's automatically new elections.

I suppose the logic behind this is that the relevant people can hold meetings with the President - and he/she who can win a vote of confidence will be appointed Prime Minister. I suppose the President also has to bear in mind that if he appoints someone who can't win a vote of confidence, he's likely to do a lot of harm to his own reputation.

(always thought that one of the better things that the Kaczynski twins did was to give up power without fuss in 2007)

As for what Komorowski said - for me, it was just a little reminder that the biggest party didn't always have the Prime Minister - as I recall, wasn't Pawlak the Prime Minister despite being from the 2nd biggest party in 1993?

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Edited by: gumishu Sep 11, 11, 23:35 #10

Surely this is merely done if the Prime Minister has the power to win a vote of confidence in the Sejm?

yes, of course - it would be a dictatorship otherwise wouldn't it

I suppose the logic behind this is that the relevant people can hold meetings with the President - and he/she who can win a vote of confidence will be appointed Prime Minister. I suppose the President also has to bear in mind that if he appoints someone who can't win a vote of confidence, he's likely to do a lot of harm to his own reputation.

you can pretty much figure out what Polish politics is all about with just some basic read delphi - sometimes though reputation does not matter much (think of a going president who stands no chance at getting re-elected - or serves his second term)

(always thought that one of the better things that the Kaczynski twins did was to give up power without fuss in 2007)

that is so much about Kaczyńskis and PiS being fascist or totalitarian or even seriously authoritarian

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Sep 12, 11, 08:06 #11

delphiandomine wrote:

PiS need to be polling (in the current political environment of 4 big parties and no-one else) around 40% in order to have a chance of forming a government. 29% isn't enough - and can you honestly imagine PiS going into any sort of coalition with the SLD?

I can't imagine PiS going into a coalition with anyone. Their only chance is 51% of the vote. True, PSL are basically political ****** willing to get into bed with anyone who'll offer them a bit of power but PiS has proven it's not a trustworthy coalition party. They've burned too many bridges.

I like the idea of a PO / SLD government but it's probably not very feasible.

sobieskiThreads: 82 Posts: 1,143 Joined: Jun 1, 08 ♂	Sep 12, 11, 09:27 #12
I can't imagine PiS going into a coalition with anyone For a party who was in a coalition with Samoobrona, everything is possible :)

gumishuThreads: 17 Posts: 3,943 Joined: Apr 6, 09 ♂	Sep 12, 11, 09:47 #13
sobieski For a party who was in a coalition with Samoobrona, everything is possible :) demonizing Samoobrona works only so far

mafketisThreads: 17 Posts: 1,880 Joined: Mar 31, 08 ♂	Sep 12, 11, 09:58 #14
The point is that PiS did not appear to be acting in good faith, the purpose of their alliance with SO and LPR (remember them? brrrrrr) seemed to pretty transparently be to ultimately dispose of the troublesome party heads and absorb their electorate. That largely worked but it cost them the middle of the road voters they would have needed to govern by themselves.

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Edited by: Ziemowit Sep 12, 11, 10:54 #15

PiS 2% behind PO is not the only thing that the poll by Homo Homini for the Polish Radio has revelead. It is worth noting that the Palikot brigade (Ruch Poparcia Palikota) claims more than 4% of the vote in that poll as compared to the 6.5% gained by the party of establishment PSL. This shows that they are quite close to the election treshold of 5% allowing them to get into the Sejm. Bearing in mind that some people would be reluctant to admit in a poll casting their vote for Palikot, it is quite plausible that the "enfant terrible" of Polish politics will get over the treshold. I am inclined to see Palikot as receivng some kind of vote of protest from those who are dissatisfied with PO and are basically anti-postcommunists so as not to vote for SLD, yet they are those who are not prepared to give power to the Somalian pirates of the Polish political scene incarnated for them in the PiS party.

gumishuThreads: 17 Posts: 3,943 Joined: Apr 6, 09 ♂	Sep 12, 11, 11:07 #16
Somalian pirates of the Polish political scene incarnated for them in the PiS party. interesting comparison - though I simply don't get it

SebastianThreads: 8 Posts: 129 Joined: Feb 16, 10 ♂	Sep 14, 11, 06:10 #17
Its quite embarrassing that so many Polish people vote for those ******* idiots in PiS. I can't wait until tusk wins again. Hopefully the PiS just goes away.

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