Chicago Pollock: Cuts? Are you kidding with 12% unemployment and wages that are the probably the lowest in Europe. If Poland goes bankrupt it's because the wages are too low. Low wages low tax base. Poland needs a vibrant Middle Class and you're not going to get that with low wages.
I'm talking about the endless handouts to people such as farmers, the way that many individuals have been allowed to retire early (ballet dancers can collect their ZUS-funded pension at 40 - wtf?), the way that completely uneconomic train services are subsidised, the way that students get a hell of a lot of subsidies in terms of transportation, the list goes on.
Poland is screaming out for someone to make savage cuts in the same way that Estonia did/does.
hague1cmaeron: As to the political appetite for reform, in Poland the government is currently undertaking pensions reform, in the UK the government wouldn't dare to mention the subject.
The reform is cosmetic - it's doing nothing to change the fact that there are vast amounts of people enjoying state-funded early retirement. Taking a bit from the private pension scheme and putting it into the public scheme isn't enough - there's a huge black hole, and the only way to stop it is to put a stop to all those generous early retirement provisions.
Let's not forget that Poland also has a similar problem to the UK in terms of people falsely claiming unemployment/disability benefits.
hague1cmaeron: Seems to me it is the UK that is in much need of a double dose of Thacherism, but given the strong class hatred prevalent in UK society, it is going to be very hard to achieve.
Can't argue with that - the explosion in public sector non-jobs under Labour was shocking.
cms: Once the election is out of the way then the PO will find some other way to put off the required restructuring - some other election or waiting till after 2012 to avoid strikes during the matches or some other excuse. They seem paralyzed as to what they really need to do.
It's not paralysis, but electoral math. Who is going to support the reforms needed? The PSL will block any attempt to hit rural areas/farmers (KRUS, anyone?), PiS will oppose for the sake of opposition and the SLD are a self declared socialist party who want higher taxes to balance things - not cuts. It's virtually impossible for PO to do anything that's needed - even within PO, there are a few almost-SLD types who will rebel against cuts.
Something that people don't seem to understand is that the PSL wield massive power - Pawlak knows that solely by supporting PO's programme, they cannot dare to touch the PSL's voter base. So - what can be done?
I think we all agree that at the start of the crisis, the Government should have taken an axe to many things and allowed unemployment to rise. But if they did, the socialist Poles would have thrown them out very quickly.
Don't forget, look at the history of Polish governments from 1989. Not one government since then with the exception of the current one has been anything but socialist - and the current one realises that if they start taking an axe, then people will abandon them and vote for the SLD instead. PO simply don't have the numbers to actually do very much.
I'm curious - what do people think can actually be done, given the electoral math?
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