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Polish non-intervention in Libya?

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posts: 135

Polonius3Threads: 1,005 Posts: 4,834 Joined: Apr 11, 08 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 16:34 #1
Poland's authorities have eschewed the opiton of participating in any military operation against the Qaddafi regime. In your view, is this a wise move, a sign of cowardice, a bit of both or something else?

WroclawThreads: 77 Posts: 7,404 Joined: Apr 1, 06 ♂ [Moderator]	Mar 19, 11, 16:38 #2
Polonius3: something else? matter of costs and equipment/manpower probably

JonnyMThreads: 16 Posts: 4,487 Joined: Mar 9, 11 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 16:40 #3
Simply not neccessary. Europe wants to limit their intervention to the bare minimum, and any intervention will be done by those best placed economically, logistically and geographically.

David_18Threads: 111 Posts: 1,212 Joined: Jan 4, 07 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 16:44 #4
I think that Poland learned from Iraq and Afghani wars that they wont be the ones benefiting from the war.

Polonius3Threads: 1,005 Posts: 4,834 Joined: Apr 11, 08 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 17:11 #5
I seem to recall there were suggestions Poland would get theri own oilfield in Kuwait for their involvement in Iraq. Thta soon fizzled out.

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Edited by: Crow Mar 19, 11, 17:27 #6

Why would Poland take part in war in which is final goal stealing property of some other people? In this case, ultimate NATO and EU goal is to exploit Libyan oil.

Poland is honest and brave, that`s why i love Poland. For me, Poland is core of real authentic native European West, pride of Sarmatia and leader of vast Slavic world, example.

actually, i have no words to describe what i feel. Poland fascinates me, more and more

Lodz_The_BoatThreads: 58 Posts: 2,314 Joined: Sep 7, 08 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 17:31 #7
Crow: Poland fascinates me, more and more I agree with the statement you made on Libya. Yes, it seems USA is just too desperate in these strange "domino effect" as they are calling it. Somehow it all seems very planned ...

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Edited by: Moderator Mar 19, 11, 17:44 #8

Lodz_The_Boat:

I agree with the statement you made on Libya. Yes, it seems USA is just too desperate in these strange "domino effect" as they are calling it. Somehow it all seems very planned ...

see Lodz, with every new day i am more and more convinced that reason for destruction of Yugoslavia was actually clash of two Western (European) concepts in approach to international politics. Yugoslavia was known as non-aligned country, multicultural and still very Slavic and absolutely truly European. Yugoslav approach was peaceful, non-violent, with respect of international law, with criticism to non-democratic and inhuman regimes but, with respect on situation in particular country. Especially, Yugoslavia always considered important to balance between interest of ALL (really ALL!) world powers and centers of civilizations. As i like to say, Yugoslavia was Mother, EU is something else.

Moment when EU/NATO finished with Yugoslavia/Serbia represent moment when respect of international law was replaced by rule of violence among countries. Meaning, if country has enough power, country would prosper, while all others who are weaker, have to serve and follow interests of most powerful player.

Please don't lead this thread off topic

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Edited by: Lodz_The_Boat Mar 19, 11, 17:54 #9

Crow:

Meaning, country has more power, country would prosper, while all others who are weaker, have to serve and follow interests of most powerful player.

This is the way the world had been working since a very long time. It definitely is not the right way.

Crow:

and still very Slavic

We need to change from "Slavic" to the region ... it sounds better to ears. Crow, to exist and be of some form of influence, you need to attract all your people and all the neighbors. To some Slavs themselves this term might sound threatening.

Infact, there are slavs in Poland who would like to live a more free life, free from any special ethnic obligation. Do you get what I mean? ... maybe even I am among them. However, beyond this, I don't think any Pole (including me) feels alienated from the good aspects of Slavic history and culture. We do feel a longing, but this longing have been made look as negative as possible.

Only some new concepts can make a difference. It is possible, but it needs to me marketed properly.

Did you see this by any chance: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/16/revolution_u?page=ful l

The concept needs to be handed over to the correct people (those who like to change the world) in the correct manner. The primitive manner of racial cohesion isn't going to work when members of your own slavic entity keep falling for other races :D (including germans, jews, east asians :), indians, persians, egyptians or turks and albanians even).

Need to have a clear view on things, I am sure you heard of "sustainable growth of energy, economy, logic and ideals" ... if its not sustainable, it is bound to collapse.

ANYWAYS (BACK TO TOPIC): I welcome this decision by Poland whole heartedly. We have nothing to do with this phony war of oil. We got much of our own problems to sort.

southernThreads: 116 Posts: 10,955 Joined: May 17, 07 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 18:36 #10
Greece will intervene.And heavily with F-16,battleships and allowing flights from Kreta bases.Very wrong decision.

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Mar 19, 11, 19:06 #11

I think that the Polish nation would accept the possibility of shedding the Polish blood for the freedom of the people in a foreign country.
The "freedom" was always the Polish buzz-word. Some says that this love of freedom is our weakness. Some that this is our virtue.
"Za naszą i waszą wolność" - "For our freedom and yours" Is the unofficial motto of Poland.
Many Polish soldiers has died fighting under banners like that:

But this time - in Libia - freedom is not the reason of war. Libia is a tribal country and this is a tribal war. Nobody knows who are the rebelians and and what they want. Some says that they are a freedom-fighters, that they want the democracy and the "freedom for all". Methinks - this is just an example of Western wishful thinking. Some says that they are Al-Queida fanatics. I don't believe it either.

I think that the closest to true is the statement of experts who pointed out that this is just a clan-war. There are over 100 of powerful clans in Libia. And they want to rule. This is not our business.

Another approach - which is deeply un-Polish BTW - is the economic one. But we are to small and too weak comparing to powers like the US, UK or France. For Poland, the profit/risk ratio would be near zero. We had learned this from the Iraq and Afghanistan.

I think that the Poland shall be stay away from this war.

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 19:14 #12
Poland has come a long way compared to the build up to the Iraq war...

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Mar 19, 11, 19:21 #13

enkidu:

Libia is a tribal country and this is a tribal war. Nobody knows who are the rebelians and and what they want. Some says that they are a freedom-fighters, that they want the democracy and the "freedom for all". Methinks - this is just an example of Western wishful thinking[ ]

I think that the Poland shall be stay away from this war.

That's exactly what I'm thinking. Poland should stay away. If France wish to participate - let them.

This whole Arab uprising thingy is bit confusing. They said, for example, that in Egypt it got massive support. Well, half a million participants out of 80 mil population is not exactly "massive". Not to mention there was nothing "massive" in women participation. They don't crave democracy. I think it will be one autocrat replacing another one.

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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Mar 19, 11, 19:26 #14

It's a tribal war...the Ghaddafi tribe oppressed the Senussi tribe for decades....now the West helps the Senussis and friends who...once they will have won...will make sure the Ghaddafi tribe gets opressed....but those will very probably mount insurgencies with the goal to retake the control over the most important harbors (oil)....and soon the West is part of a blood civil war....

The egyptian army is huge and modern...they are their neighbours...why don't do they help?
They have their reasons!

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Mar 19, 11, 19:29 #15

Looking at the oil exports of Libya, the two countries that will be mainly concerned by the Libya crisis are France and Italy. Page 4 of this pdf will show why. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/libya/pdf.pdf

I don't see why Poland would have any business messing with Libya. In the long run, oil prices globally may go up if oil exports from Libya diminished, since countries that depend on Libyan oil may have to look else where, but that's how supply and demand work. If Europe is very worried about this, then maybe Poland would eventually play some role. But I can't see any reason why countries other than France and Italy (maybe Germany, Spain and Greece also) should be concerned at this time. If Poland has alliance or treaty obligations that may need to be fulfilled, then that is another matter.

Crow: Why would Poland take part in war in which is final goal stealing property of some other people? In this case, ultimate NATO and EU goal is to exploit Libyan oil.

I don't think purchasing a good from another country is exploitation. The countries I mentioned above have invested interest in a stable Libya for the sake of their economies. Since France has already sided with the "rebels" and everyone considers Gaddafi to be a bad guy, how is supporting the will of a people exploiting them? Yes they are doing it because they depend on importing oil from Libya, but in the end Libya may benefit from a Gaddafi free country. As with any Islamic country it's possible they may become radicalized, but that is less likely with a western influence compared to being left on their own.

Lodz_The_Boat: I agree with the statement you made on Libya. Yes, it seems USA is just too desperate in these strange "domino effect" as they are calling it. Somehow it all seems very planned ...

If I remember correctly, our Commander in Chief was playing golf while waiting for Europe to take the lead on this one. He is incapable of planning anything but is March Madness picks.

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Mar 19, 11, 19:34 #16
Dande: As with any Islamic country it's possible they may become radicalized, but that is less likely with a western influence compared to being left on their own. As seen in...where exactly?

PlasticPoleThreads: 10 Posts: 5,432 Joined: May 28, 09 ♀	Mar 19, 11, 19:38 #17
Polonius3: In your view, is this a wise move, a sign of cowardice, a bit of both or something else? It's a wise move. Why does the west need to get involved in this? Why not let muslims deal with it and sort it out. This is just going to be another backfire.

joepilsudskiThreads: 44 Posts: 2,529 Joined: Apr 27, 07 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 19:57 #18
Any intervention in Libya has one purpose: To secure the continuing and future flow of oil and natural gas...The Libyan people are irrelevant as far as the 'intervening' countries are concerned...Do you think David Cameron or Nikolas Sarkozy are concerned about human rights?

DandeThreads: - Posts: 16 Joined: Feb 20, 11 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 20:04 #19
Bratwurst Boy: As seen in...where exactly? Look what happened to Iran when Jimmy Carter failed to support the Shah.

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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Mar 19, 11, 20:06 #20

joepilsudski:

Do you think David Cameron or Nikolas Sarkozy are concerned about human rights?

Western ally Saudi Arabia is helping to slaughter the rebels of Bahrain...I don't see us either helping the Bahrainis nor trying to oust the Saudi King!

Egypt is big, has a modern neighbour and is next to Libya...even short after their own revolution they can't be arsed to help their neighbourly rebels.
Saudi army is big and modern (and in the neighbourhood) enough to help the libyan rebels...but they won't...for easy reasons!
Even the most western neighbour Turkey warns of a western intervention!

But the usual suspects+France this time can't wait..What a mess!

Their financial situation can't be that bad after all..

PlasticPoleThreads: 10 Posts: 5,432 Joined: May 28, 09 ♀	Mar 19, 11, 20:15 #21
Dande: Look what happened to Iran when Jimmy Carter failed to support the Shah. If that is their destiny than so be it. The west cannot stop these islamic countries from going backwards, if that is what the people living there want. Bombing them and making them more extreme will not solve a thing.

MEMBER ♂

Edited by: mephias Mar 19, 11, 20:33 #22

Polonius3:

Poland's authorities have eschewed the opiton of participating in any military operation

It is geograhically not necessary (Considering the current phase). I doubt if any Polish authority considered this so there is no decision.

I support it as long as there is no ground attack and. If Gaddafi can't use aircrafts and his heavy firepower is destroyed, rebels will breath a bit and Gaddafi will go. (It is very early for making oil comments).

PlasticPole:

The west cannot stop these islamic countries from going backwards

I know it is difficult for you to look from different angles but this has little to do with Islam, There are many other dictatorships in non-muslim countries, I hope this will spread there too and all will go down.

enkiduThreads: 18 Posts: 983 Joined: Sep 23, 08 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 20:38 #23
Bratwurst Boy: Dande: As with any Islamic country it's possible they may become radicalized, but that is less likely with a western influence compared to being left on their own. As seen in...where exactly? Good point. Very good, indeed. :)

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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Mar 19, 11, 20:39 #24

mephias:

I support it as long as there is no ground attack and. If Gaddafi can't use aircrafts and his heavy firepower is destroyed, rebels will breath a bit and Gaddafi will go. (It is very early for making oil comments).

I don't believe that...
You don't bring on regime change from air alone!
As long as Ghaddafis troops have the harbors to get weapons in and oil out so long Ghaddafi stays in power with no reason to go and the Cyrenaica lybians isolated.
And air support doesn't help the rebels to become a military power. Ground troops will be necessary to oust Ghaddafi...that has become the real goal since yesterday. Everything else will end in total humiliation of the West. (What will happen anyhow..)

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Mar 19, 11, 20:44 #25

mephias:

I just saw a news show, an expert was saying if one civilian gets harmed in a bombing, the west will be villified in the region yet again. That is why we need to let Libya deal with this. Why should we go in there and harm civilians and get blamed by Arabs while Lybia will do the same thing and have only itself to blame?

mephiasThreads: 15 Posts: 812 Joined: Nov 14, 08 MEMBER ♂	Mar 19, 11, 20:46 #26
Bratwurst Boy: Bratwurst Boy I would agree but weren't these rebels besieging Tripoli few days ago, At least it shouldn't be like Iraq.

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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Mar 19, 11, 20:49 #27

PlasticPole:

I just saw a news show, an expert was saying if one civilian gets harmed in a bombing, the west will be villified in the region yet again.

Why do you think their arab brethren can't be arsed to help...
The West makes such a fine scapegoat when things go downhill once again!

mephias:

At least it shouldn't be like Iraq.

Why do I have such a sinking feeling in my stomach....

Not to forget that we know nothing about the "rebels". I just read that Al-Quaida is supporting the rebels too.
Now the West is allied with Al-Quaida...isn't that nice! At the same time...in Afghanistan...

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Mar 19, 11, 20:52 #28

Bratwurst Boy:

Why do you think their arab brethren can't be arsed to help...
The West makes such a fine scapegoat when things go downhill once again!

That was a stipulation of President Obama's. He wanted the Arabs to do it, but they aren't!!! Those Arabs will not shoulder any responsibility so why does the west have to? People are going to get harmed during the no fly zone. People are going to get harmed if the civil war is allowed to continue...
So why not go the route where Libya gets blamed for the harm and not the west.
Thing is, if the west let it continue, then we would be blamed for "not intervening while innocent civilians are harmed." So either way, they got us, not matter what we do, they will blame us for their problems. That's the way it is with Islam. Always the other guys fault, never theirs.

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	Mar 19, 11, 20:52 #29
PlasticPole: He wanted the Arabs to do it, but they aren't!!! That should actually ring all alarm bells...

MEMBER ♂

Edited by: mephias Mar 19, 11, 21:09 #30

Bratwurst Boy:

I just read that Al-Quaida is supporting the rebels.
Now the West is allied with Al-Quaida...isn't that nice!

It is Gaddafi's claim (His son was saying it on the TV ). I don't know if Al-Quaida is that strong in Libya (If there is chaos for sure they will use it). But yes situation will be very complex since there is no government tradition and structure in Libya unlike Egypt where army is strong enough.

PlasticPole:

So either way, they got us, not matter what we do, they will blame us for their problems.

It is a bit shallow approach if you think the complexity of problems.

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