Predicitng Poland's parliamentary election, 2011?

Polonius3Threads: 1,005 Posts: 4,834 Joined: Apr 11, 08 ♂	Oct 7, 11, 02:35 #1
Anyone game for a Polish election prediction contest? My betting is that the vote will break down roughly as follows: PO - 37 PiS - 34 SLD - 9 PSL -8 Palikot - 6 PJN - 4 PPP - 2

hague1cmaeronThreads: 21 Posts: 1,652 Joined: Mar 30, 10 ♂	Edited by: hague1cmaeron Oct 7, 11, 03:45 #2
There is already an existing thread on this already, and i have made my prediction, which in the light of recent events seems to be a ted too optimistic. However if a second go is allowed, these are my predictions: If it is a sunny day. PO: 38% PIS:29% SLD: 10% PSL: 7% Ruch Palikota: 6% If it is a rainy day. PO: 36% PIS:31% SLD: 11% PSL: 7% Ruch Palikota: 5%

Polonius3Threads: 1,005 Posts: 4,834 Joined: Apr 11, 08 ♂	Oct 7, 11, 04:04 #3
You may well be right. PiS-supporting devout Cathoilics go to Sunday mass regardless of the wetaher and cast their ballot on the way home. Many of the more slouchy PO types regard Sunday as mainly a day to sleep in, and bad wetaher may keep them housebound and less likely to venture out.

♂ [Suspended]

Edited by: delphiandomine Oct 7, 11, 19:23 #4

You may well be right. PiS-supporting devout Cathoilics go to Sunday mass regardless of the wetaher and cast their ballot on the way home. Many of the more slouchy PO types regard Sunday as mainly a day to sleep in, and bad wetaher may keep them housebound and less likely to venture out.

Plenty of PO-voting devout Catholics go to mass regardless. I know plenty of them.

Anyone game for a Polish election prediction contest?

PO - 37%
PiS - 29%
Ruch Palikota - 9%
PSL - 7%
SLD - 7%
PJN - 3%

With 8% going to 'others'.

Prediction : Minority PO government which does deals with individual combinations of parties to get legislation through the Sejm.

pawianThreads: 90 Posts: 5,398 Joined: May 30, 08 ♂	Edited by: pawian Oct 7, 11, 21:58 #5
I stick to my earlier prediction. Polish Parliament elections in October 2011 PO wins over PiS though only by a few percent. SLD and PSL get some seats too. Palikot and other don`t. =Polonius3]Many of the more slouchy PO types regard Sunday as mainly a day to sleep in, and bad wetaher may keep them housebound and less likely to venture out. You have never met a PO type, then. :):):)

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,158 Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂	Oct 7, 11, 22:02 #6
I think PO will win by 11%. They are just too steady in most areas.

pawianThreads: 90 Posts: 5,398 Joined: May 30, 08 ♂	Oct 7, 11, 23:15 #7
=hague1cmaeron]If it is a sunny day. If it is a rainy day. Hey, it was my idea that on a rainy day Palikot fans won`t vote! :):):):):):):):)

hague1cmaeronThreads: 21 Posts: 1,652 Joined: Mar 30, 10 ♂	Oct 8, 11, 07:07 #8
Hey, it was my idea that on a rainy day Palikot fans won`t vote! :):):):):):):):) Really, I din't pick up on that(:

aphrodisiacThreads: 22 Posts: 3,998 Joined: Apr 15, 09 ♀	Edited by: aphrodisiac Oct 8, 11, 08:24 #9
strangely enough more and more people might be voting for Palikot. I guess he offers something which is different from the PO vs PiS war of tags and trust me, a lot of people are sooo tired of that that they will vote for the unpredictable Palikot. That's how strange this election is. Going back on topic: Szczecin will def be non- PiS from what I hear.

hague1cmaeronThreads: 21 Posts: 1,652 Joined: Mar 30, 10 ♂	Oct 8, 11, 11:32 #10
strangely enough more and more people might be voting for Palikot. That is what they are saying when they are asked, but I doubt they have the discipline to turn up when it actually counts. I think his electorate is quite soft and his numbers are exaggerated by 2-3%.

♂

Oct 9, 11, 00:29 #11

=hague1cmaeron]That is what they are saying when they are asked, but I doubt they have the discipline to turn up when it actually counts. I think his electorate is quite soft and his numbers are exaggerated by 2-3%.

I agree. Besides, people can vote Palikot in only one election district. In others, his party`s candidates are put forward. Most of them are accidental tourists. Will they gather as much support as Palikot himself? I doubt it.
I still believe Palikot Support Movement won`t cross the line.

nahummerThreads: - Posts: 3 Joined: Oct 9, 11 ♂	Oct 9, 11, 12:29 #12
PO - 33% PiS - 29% Ruch Palikota - 10% SLD - 9% SLD - 8% PJN - 3% Of course, as I mentioned on another thread already, the winner was already chosen in Brussels - theendisalwaysnear.blogspot.com/2011/10/polish-political-predictabilit y.html

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