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Turkey, Japan, Poland and Mexico will be the new super powers.


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rockThreads: 5
Posts: 1,449
Joined: Jun 13, 08 ♂ 		 Jan 28, 09, 14:01    #1
The head of Stratfor (a think tank in USA close to CIA and called shadow CIA) George Friedman writes in his book ''The next 100 years'', Turkey, Japan, Poland and Mexico will be the main super powers of the world. In his forecast of 21th century he also says Russia and China will collapse in the next 100 years and Turkey-Japan alliance will make war against USA.

Has anybody read this book ?

What is your opinions about these forecasts ?
Shawn_H  Jan 28, 09, 14:07    #2
rock:
What is your opinions about these forecasts ?

On the surface, it doesn't sound plausible. Does he write on how this will all come to pass?
McCoyThreads: 46
Posts: 1,755
Joined: Jul 3, 08 ♂ 		Edited by: McCoy  Jan 28, 09, 14:08    #3
i read the interview with this guy.

h
ConstantineKThreads: 35
Posts: 1,949
Joined: May 10, 07 ♂ 		 Jan 28, 09, 14:12    #4
ha-ha turkey is superpower, ha-ha...it is already superpower. Superpower of gastarbaiters !!!
Pinching PeteThreads: 1
Posts: 1,112
Joined: Feb 23, 08 ♂ 		 Jan 28, 09, 14:17    #5
ConstantineK:
Superpower of gastarbaiters

champion wife stoners.
dcchrisThreads: 11
Posts: 687
Joined: Oct 29, 07 ♂ 		 Jan 28, 09, 14:52    #6
no chance. more like china and brazil and japan will be in with china
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,160
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Jan 28, 09, 15:08    #7
Some are trying to forge a union between Canada, the US and Mexico. The North American Union (NMU). Some say it will become a reality, making it a formidable force.

Japan could be but I don't think they have such aspirations.
Shawn_H  Jan 28, 09, 15:42    #8
Seanus:
Some say it will become a reality, making it a formidable force.

Recent saber / sabre rattling during the last US election about Re-negotiating NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) Read: Protectionism

With the down turn in the economy, protectionist sentiments are on the rise. I don't think Canadians would be in favour of giving up more influence to the Americans, given the last 8 years of American influence in the world.

And hey, if Mexico is on the rise (according to the thread title) why would they cede any power at this point?
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,160
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Jan 28, 09, 15:50    #9
Rockefeller is pushing the NAFTA and Obama will feel the heat. Turkey has the potential to be a major power but not a superpower.
dcchrisThreads: 11
Posts: 687
Joined: Oct 29, 07 ♂ 		 Jan 28, 09, 15:55    #10
mexico seems to be on the brink of being taken over by drug gangs. until they get some control over that situation forget about being a world power
plk123Threads: 30
Posts: 6,410
Joined: Aug 29, 07 ♂ 		 Jan 28, 09, 18:37    #11
someone's smoking rock.
YoshiThreads: 1
Posts: 57
Joined: Sep 15, 08 ♂ 		 Feb 5, 09, 22:09    #12
Seanus:
Japan could be but I don't think they have such aspirations.

No, we don't.

One big lesson that we learned from WWII is that we shouldn't be involved too deeply in dysfunctional regimes. We counted so much on some war lords in China in the 30's, and we screwed up the whole diplomacy in East Asia by allowing the Nationalists to have all the supports from the West. We asked the USSR to mediate peace with the USA (!), and they marched into Manchuria and South Sakhalin next month, of course.

Another thing is that we do NOT share the anti-American feelings so widespread now. The USA has loads of problems, which quite often adversely affect us, but not so much as those idiots stoning their wives, whipping their daughters dating foreigners, or the millitants indiscriminately raining rockets over the civilians of the neighbouring country that is the most powerful of the region and shamelessly dare to ask for help from the "international community" afterwards.

We have no reason whatsoever to fight against another democracy on behalf of some backward tribes far away. WE TRIED IT ONCE. THAT WAS MORE THAN ENOUGH!!!
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,160
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Feb 5, 09, 22:13    #13
I know. I have talked to many Japanese students about it and they are of the same opinion. Heiwa ha totemo taisetsu yo ne. Nihon ga daisuki dayo
joepilsudskiThreads: 44
Posts: 2,521
Joined: Apr 27, 07 Pictures: 1 ♂ 		Edited by: joepilsudski  Feb 6, 09, 06:05    #14
rock:
''The next 100 years'', Turkey, Japan, Poland and Mexico will be the main super powers of the world.



Well, not just Poland but the 'Pan-Sarmatian Union' will be a superpower...Please consult Crow...

Yoshi:
or the millitants indiscriminately raining rockets over the civilians of the neighbouring country

Are you talking about Israel/Ashkenazistan raining rockets on Gaza and bombing the civilians with F-15s?
David_18Threads: 111
Posts: 1,202
Joined: Jan 4, 07 ♂ 		 Feb 6, 09, 06:12    #15
Viva la Polska!!!!!!

I believe that Poland are making some kinda polonisation in eastern Europe atm. And in a couple of decades Eastern Europe will be unified under the polish flag once again.
HatefulBunch397Threads: -
Posts: 1,018
Joined: Nov 5, 08 ♀ 		 Feb 6, 09, 06:40    #16
My Japanese history professor said the next one hundred years will belong to China. I haven't read the book you mentioned. I wonder...what makes the author think Poland will be a super power considering all the other European countries all competing together...what does the author say gives Poland the advantage over all the others?
I think China is going to take over the world, lol.

As for Israel going into Gaza, you have to remember Gaza started the thing by firing those pathetic missiles at Israel. It was plain foolish.
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,160
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Feb 6, 09, 09:30    #17
You and your missiles, stop trashing threads with this garbage. You could defend genocide with this missile crap, couldn't you?

Get a grip and cut the BS
osiolThreads: 59
Posts: 4,714
Joined: Jul 25, 07 ♂ 		 Feb 6, 09, 09:50    #18
I wouldn't want to see superpower status bestowed on any nice countries. It's as much a curse as it is a benefit.

I do think things will change, mostly because there has always been change and there always will be. I can't imagine the countries listed becoming superpowers as such.

Turkey - as far as Muslim countries go, it's fairly liberal, but that's not saying too much! I heard some stuff about how powerful the army is there. Over here (UK) when there is some sort of disaster or when the fire brigade go on strike, the army are brought in to help out. In Turkey, the army will probably help out if a school teacher is off sick.

Mexico - The combination of good food, good music, pretty women, hot weather and donkey abuse are not conducive to superpower status (okay, so some of the food gives you the runs, some of the music is just plain irritating, the weather - no comment and some of the donkeys are well looked after). Nor is their interesting relationship with the US particularly favourable.

Poland - lots of us here know a lot about Poland, many of you know more than I do so you're better places to make comments. Certainly in a good position to gain economic might, but still within the confines of a European context. I don't see it overtaking Germany, France and the UK in global significance.

Japan - A country already economically powerful, although it has been through difficult times. Very much doing its own thing whilst selling gadgetry, electronics and cars around the world, it's a good thing their colonial urges came to a halt a number of years ago.

Other countries that may be on the rise:
India
Brazil
Osioģia
MareGaeaThreads: 45
Posts: 5,529
Joined: Feb 6, 08 ♂ 		Edited by: MareGaea  Feb 6, 09, 09:58    #19
rock:
Has anybody read this book ?

No. If I want to laugh, I will read a comic book. Turkey once was a superpower in Europe, and never will be again; Japan is way past its glory-days, and any power of this country, which does not have a regular army, will be economic; Poland will never be a superpower in the first 200 years because it simply lacks good politicians, infrastructure, mentality and a good geographic position and Mexico doesn't have a clue of what is going on.

M-G (mundial)
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,160
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Feb 6, 09, 13:15    #20
Pretty succinct and accurate analysis, M-G. Mexico is even behind Brazil in the pecking order although many have grand plans for Mexico. That is, if you believe the hype and spin. I don't.
MareGaeaThreads: 45
Posts: 5,529
Joined: Feb 6, 08 ♂ 		 Feb 6, 09, 15:09    #21
If you read Immanuel Wallerstein's "The Modern World-System" 1 thru 3, you can see that in between the hegemonial fall of a previous superpower and the rise of a new one, a certain pause of a century can be pssbl. This period can be about 50 to 100 years (between the fall of the Republic of the 7 Provinces -the Netherlands- as hegemonial superpower and the rise of Great Britain as hegemonial superpower lies about 75 years) or any other amount of time.

Furthermore, the fall of one superpower as a hegemonial state does not necessarily have to be followed by the rise of another one: after the first, brief, period of British hegemonial power there was about 50 years an ex-aequo between the powers in Europe and the world. It was only after Napoleon definitively was beaten that Britain got his second period of hegemonial superpower for nearly 100 years: 1815 to 1914.

During the Great European War (1914 - 1945) there was no distinctive superpower in the world. Germany tried in that period twice to gain the status of hegemonial superpower, but failed in both attempts. Previously it had been France (1789 - 1815) who had tried to gain the same status, but failed as well. Saillant detail in these two attempts was that, although they did not succeed in reaching their goal, they effectively succeeded in putting British hegemonial superpower to an end. Twice. After 1945 the US became the new hegemonial superpower. And they still are, unchallenged yet.

What did France and Germany do wrong so their attempts failed? Well, basically nothing: they were strong militairy powers and they gained much of their objectives. However, hegemonial superpower is not based on one factor alone: a country can call itself a hegemonial superpower when it is capable to dominate other countries, not only militairy, but also economical and cultural. France and Germany basically only succeeded in parts of these three necessities: even though France was considered the pariah of Europe during the Concert Of Europe during the decades that followed the demise of Napoleon, French was the spoken language at courts and in politics. However, they never managed to dominate economically. Culturally, yes and only partly militairy. Germany dominated only 100% militairy, only partly economically and never culturally.

There are only 3 countries in the world that ever had the status of hegemonial superpower in history: The Netherlands, Great Britain (2x) and the US. Look at the US now: they dominate us militairy, economically and cultural as well. Voila.

Once any of the countries mentioned in the title of this thread will be capable of fulfilling all three requirements, they will be hegemonial superpower. But I don't see that happening with any of them. And furthermore: should the US demise, it is by far not sure that there will be another superpower to take over from them: China does not fulfill all 3 requirements at this moment in time.

M-G (pfff!)
Lotnik767Threads: 6
Posts: 210
Joined: Nov 12, 08 ♂ 		 Feb 6, 09, 15:55    #22
Well anything is possible it just takes one person some times to make things right!! US will always be a super power and it will always have influence, because the US is going thro a bumpy road at this time it doesn’t mean that they will never recover (1920's) they did. People should be lucky that US exists! With out them where would have been more wars, you think its non sense but it's true! They way Poland is going now is a good way keep in mind that we are about 20 years behind Germany, France, England, USA because we got screwed after WWII by the now reach countries I mentioned above, So now Poland is trying to recover and she is doing a great job and I believe in about 25 years Poland will catch up with the rest of the big countries in military, economics, culture and influence! Mexico is corrupted and over run by drug Cartels so I don't see any positive changes for them. Japan already rules. Turkey well they will always be the same. We will see what the future holds!
MareGaeaThreads: 45
Posts: 5,529
Joined: Feb 6, 08 ♂ 		 Feb 6, 09, 16:01    #23
Indeed, we will see. But let's not forget the geographical position of Poland: in between it's worst enemies, which happen to be major powers in their own good right. I am not stating that Poland does not do a good job in trying to recover after the devastation of WW2 and all it's traumas, followed by 50 years of Communist rule. I am just saying that I don't see it happing on the short run. A good start would be a major change in mentality and getting more progressive as being progressive is obviously the way to get more results than being just plain conservative. This does NOT rule out that in some fields you will have to remain conservative, though. It just helps to be progressive: as the old Dutch proverb goes: "Niet geschoten is altijd mis" (If you don't shoot, you will always miss - if you don't dare anything new, you will never be able to move forward).

M-G (thinks all countries should have equal opportunities to get ahead. Except Romania. I hate Romania.)

:)
Lotnik767Threads: 6
Posts: 210
Joined: Nov 12, 08 ♂ 		 Feb 6, 09, 16:10    #24
"Niet geschoten is altijd mis" (If you don't shoot, you will always miss - if you don't dare anything new, you will never be able to move forward).

I agree 100% that Poland should try new things and new approaches to becoming better and more prosperous country. And yes Poland is stuck in between to big enemies but they should take advantage of that is some kind of way, Poland should be making so much money off Germans and Russians but they are not!! Hope that we will have a leader one day that will stand up for Poland and Polish people and won’t be scared!! But they main thing should be too try some thing new and not be afraid of doing it, and Poland should invest in her self and her People!!
aydnsznThreads: -
Posts: 6
Joined: Feb 23, 09 ♂ 		 Feb 23, 09, 18:11    #25
Yes i have read about it..
Turkish people & Polish People & Japanese people &Mexican people think about them all racist, patriot and aggressive....This is the point links them..I am Turkish myself My Gf is Polish and one of my good friend is Mexican and i am living in London coming from Istanbul and have visited many places in the world. I am social man as well as a good listener..
Eventhough war is a hard decision this with this idea it is possible to see that these countries will have more in comman and this may bring them togethar...
Regards
HatefulBunch397Threads: -
Posts: 1,018
Joined: Nov 5, 08 ♀ 		 Feb 23, 09, 18:29    #26
I don't know if it's possible for Mexico to become a superpower with the US on it's northern border.
lesserThreads: 7
Posts: 2,014
Joined: Oct 19, 07 ♂ 		 Feb 23, 09, 19:17    #27
HatefulBunch397:
I don't know if it's possible for Mexico to become a superpower with the US on it's northern border.

northern or eastern?
HatefulBunch397Threads: -
Posts: 1,018
Joined: Nov 5, 08 ♀ 		 Feb 23, 09, 19:46    #28
Lesser, northern in some places, eastern in another?
SokratesThreads: 19
Posts: 4,464
Joined: Jan 19, 09 ♂ [Suspended] 		Edited by: Sokrates  Feb 23, 09, 19:52    #29
Actually i've read his book and its pretty plausible save for Mexico.

The points he is making are as follows.

US is facing a serious crisis and while it will retain the world power status it will become more isolationist.

This provides a power vacuum which China and Japan will attempt to fill also fiercely rivalling each other.

Germany is in decline, to put his thesis in the pill, German civilization became tired, the economy itself is strong but slowly grinding to a halt due to overblown socialism and soon to be serious demographical issues, this creates a void which Poland as the most developed and energetic of the "western-ish" countries will fill gathering other smaller countries like Romania and Hungary.

Mexico ? He makes some good points about Mexico but ultimately fails to see the depth of corruption and demoralisation of its society so i dont agree here.

Turkey - he sees Turkey as a new power which will encroach Balkans where it will clash with by then polish zones of influence whereas Russia though agressive will settle on a cold war with polish lead block since it wont be able to afford a hot war anymore.

His theories off the shelf seem far fetched but once you read his book the logic behind them is pretty solid.
southernThreads: 116
Posts: 10,900
Joined: May 17, 07 ♂ 		 Feb 23, 09, 19:58    #30
Sokrates:
Turkey as a new power which will encroach Balkans

If Kurds don't suffocate Turkey.

Sokrates:
vacuum which China and Japan will attempt to fill also fiercely rivalling each other.

Producing for example minimal condoms for two penises together.

Sokrates:
Mexico ?

Very likely winner in the tequilla war.

Sokrates:
Russia though agressive will settle

I prefer Russia.
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