Turkey, Japan, Poland and Mexico will be the new super powers.

CrowThreads: 365 Posts: 7,192 Joined: Feb 14, 07 ♂	Jul 28, 09, 10:15 #91
Poland would be super power. Serbian know

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	Jul 28, 09, 10:24 #92
PlasticPole: But on the other hand, what if the guy is a psychic and all this really happens? Then I'm glad I'm not around anymore...

SokratesThreads: 19 Posts: 4,464 Joined: Jan 19, 09 ♂ [Suspended]	Jul 28, 09, 11:08 #93
Bratwurst Boy: A short summary: This book is for every "America the greatest" flag waver as everybody else and his grandma seems to collapse and vanish besides the good 'ol USA of course who get's all the time "younger" and more virile and successful instead. You're just jealous beause you dont get to build battlestars and moonbases.

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Jul 28, 09, 11:48 #94

lesser:

Again old folks might be stuck in the past but their time will come to the end soon. I don't say that their younger colleagues are people of very high quality but their will change many things for sure.

Basic Political Science point: young people, in an overwhelming majority of cases, hold viewpoints exactly as or similar to their parents. This is fact.

lesser:

Europe is interested to do business with Russia, no matter what Poland would figure out. We will see whether they will be able to secure their energetic safety...

Only assuming Russia is capable of doing business with them. If Russia's oil does indeed run out before they can come up with another necessity that the rest of Europe needs, Europe will, in fact, cease being interested in doing business with them. Because they won't have anything valuable to do business for.

lesser:

The US established as a republic (not democracy!) without popular elections was famous from being stronghold of free market. The state however democratized itself and socialized in the same time.

Not strictly true. Members of the House of Representatives were always elected by popular vote, and the individual States left to their own devices for elections. The only change since then has been to open the Senate up to popular vote, as well. In the voting system, that is.

lesser:

Democracy is simply the road to socialism. Analyse of political science must lead you to such conclusions.

Democracy is just a matter of who is in control. Then there's different types of democracy for who, specifically, is in control. We live in the area of Representative Democracy.

Crow:

Poland only in combination with Serbia and Ukraine but, it would be Sarmatia Europae then

it is expected that Ukraine and Serbia support position of Polish language as official language of Sarmatian Alliance and Warsaw for Capitol

What you think Southern is it realistic scenario?

maybe, if Polish language become official on the territory of Alliance, Kiev can get position of Capitol? This could be compromise between Poles and Ukrainians. what you think?

I dunno, Crow. I just somehow can't seem to see how Serbia and the Ukraine have anything to offer Poland in such a 'union'. No offense, but in such a hypothetical scenario (which is more or less sure never to happen), I can't see Ukraine and Serbia as anything other than dead weight for Poland. And while the position of 'superpower' may be nowhere in Poland's immediate future, I'm quite sure it's capable of acheiving 'Power' on her own. Without, y'know, having to er... educate, and modernize, and stabilize nearby, poorer countries as well.

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Edited by: Crow Jul 28, 09, 12:54 #95

Pan Kazimierz:

I dunno, Crow. I just somehow can't seem to see how Serbia and the Ukraine have anything to offer Poland in such a 'union'. No offense, but in such a hypothetical scenario (which is more or less sure never to happen), I can't see Ukraine and Serbia as anything other than dead weight for Poland. And while the position of 'superpower' may be nowhere in Poland's immediate future, I'm quite sure it's capable of acheiving 'Power' on her own. Without, y'know, having to er... educate, and modernize, and stabilize nearby, poorer countries as well.

quite nonsensical comment. Then, in your oppinion Poland must be `dead weight` for EU?

Anybody of us have something to offer. Don`t underestimate what Ukraine and Serbia can give. Don`t forget that Yugoslavia was example of prosperity and development, with even higher rate of GDP then Japan in one moment.

take for example what Poland offering to EU: great amount of its population for assimilation, its territory for eventual primary war zone, its people as cannon fodders. Poland blindly follow policy of EU leading countries- to say Poland has role of servant to France, to Germany and to Britain. Considering NATO membership Poland serve well USA, Albania and to Turkey, too.

On the other side, in combination with Ukraine and Serbia, Poland could be equal partner or even somewhat privileged because of current geo-strategical situation.

Pan KazimierzThreads: 2 Posts: 276 Joined: Jul 4, 09 ♂	Jul 28, 09, 13:05 #96
Crow: Then, in your oppinion Poland must be `dead weight` for EU? For the moment, more or less, yes. Poland is receiving far more from the EU than it's contributing, last I checked. Crow: take for example what Poland offering to EU: great amount of its population for assimilation, its territory for eventual primary war zone, its people as cannon fodders. They already had that. Anything new?

niejestemcapitaThreads: 3 Posts: 666 Joined: Jan 3, 09 ♀	Jul 28, 09, 13:06 #97
Pan Kazimierz: Poland is receiving far more from the EU than it's contributing, last I checked. source?

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂	Jul 28, 09, 13:06 #98
At least permission will be sought before they are invaded next time ;) ;) ;)

Pan KazimierzThreads: 2 Posts: 276 Joined: Jul 4, 09 ♂	Jul 28, 09, 13:36 #99
Seanus: At least permission will be sought before they are invaded next time ;) ;) ;) Right... much like how modern-day police officers ask you politely for your papers after they pull you over. =p

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Edited by: lesser Jul 28, 09, 23:26 #100

Pan Kazimierz:

Basic Political Science point: young people, in an overwhelming majority of cases, hold viewpoints exactly as or similar to their parents. This is fact.

Parents usually influence views of their children to some extend. These are foundations and building contain more elements. Notice that cultural trends changing all the time and your theory would make such changes impossible.

Pan Kazimierz:

Only assuming Russia is capable of doing business with them. If Russia's oil does indeed run out before they can come up with another necessity that the rest of Europe needs, Europe will, in fact, cease being interested in doing business with them. Because they won't have anything valuable to do business for.

Naturally that Russian leadership must have proper attitude. Russia is a big market and have a lot of cheap labour.

Pan Kazimierz:

Not strictly true. Members of the House of Representatives were always elected by popular vote, and the individual States left to their own devices for elections. The only change since then has been to open the Senate up to popular vote, as well. In the voting system, that is.

This was not popular vote, there were a lot of restriction. Please read this short article. Winning the Vote: A History of Voting Rights

Pan Kazimierz:

Democracy is just a matter of who is in control. Then there's different types of democracy for who, specifically, is in control. We live in the area of Representative Democracy.

I write "democracy" but I think that 'representative democracy' is almost as much democratic as 'people's democracy'. This system is controlled by political class of doubtful quality with high time preference (this matter practically exclude reasonable policy). Usually (so called mature democracy) two major parties exchange each other on the top. There is no place for new subjects to enter the game.

Pan Kazimierz:

For the moment, more or less, yes. Poland is receiving far more from the EU than it's contributing, last I checked.

niejestemcapita:

source?

There is no source to confirm this statement, the EU is known from lack of transparency. So is Poland. But I think that this is true, although without any revelations. What is lacking in such calculation is cost of implement of all unreasonable regulations coming from Brussels. You can bet this is huge disadvantage for Poland and any other member state. Bureaucrats in Brussels feel necessary to tell us that we can import only one kind of bananas, providing detailed data for allowed angles.... Let set this trivial example of EU regulation as an example of their reasoning.

There are million of such regulations. Adam Bielan (PiS) and Marek Borowski (Sdpl) recently encouraged voters to participate in EU elections saying that about 80% of law in Poland is made in Brussels. They represent two different parties, both are enthusiastic about the EU and I think that we can trust them in this isolated matter. It show to what extend European taxpayers are robbed by Brussels.

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Jul 29, 09, 03:48 #101

MareGaea:

Turkey once was a superpower in Europe, and never will be again

Why not?
(Poland and Turkey were very close friends 400 years ago. They used to wear each others clothes ;)

MareGaea:

Japan is way past its glory-days

Says who? What about in 50 years? The next generations?
(Poland prefers trading with Japan (as oposed to Germany) and admires her economic status)

MareGaea:

and Mexico doesn't have a clue of what is going on.

For a while now Polish diplomats have been travelling to Mexico to improve and build upon closer partnership headed by then Polish premier Jerzy Buzek.

Mexico will clear up it's gang mess when everyone has made their money. On a much smaller sclae here in Uk we have the cigarette industry, MP's that take whatever money they want and football players that beat the crap out of members of the public and walk free.

MareGaea:

Poland will never be a superpower in the first 200 years because it simply lacks good politicians, infrastructure, mentality and a good geographic position

Define good politicians? Are you saying Poland can't govern herself?
News Flash!! The European Parliament has elected former Polish Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek as its new president Fack me
Lech Walesa - NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
The greatest Pope ever - he was a politician for Poland and the world
Esperanto - the future world language - invented in - Poland.
The idea of an atomic bomb occurred to him in February 1939
Yes it was a Pole who said this - who later went on to develop the
nuclear bomb - and then won the NOBEL PEACE PRIZE later to keep it
under control - and all that future nuclear power.
Previously - a Pole discovered Radium which made possible X-rays and cancer
treatment - TWICE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
Previously - a Pole told you that the Earth rotates around the Sun
(not the other way round)
Poland has the best computer programmers in the world
(they also cracked the Enigma code)
..and this is just off the top of me ed.

Infrastructure - last time I was in Poland I travelled on a - train, drove on a - road - flew in a - plane ... got A to B basically. In 30 years you will be able to do that just as fast as anywhere else.

Mentality - anyone over the age of 30 is brain washed by the commis - Yes.
The new generation - I would have to call you a patronising C**t - Sir.

Poland is at the heart of Europe and at the crossroads of Europe and the far East. Local geographics are no longer relevant - we are thinking a lot bigger now.

100 years is enough time for many changes - for the impossible to become possible - for empires to crumble - and for underdogs to succeed.

TheOtherThreads: 4 Posts: 1,439 Joined: Jul 13, 09 ♂	Jul 29, 09, 04:18 #102
Ogorki: Previously - a Pole discovered Radium which made possible X-rays and cancertreatment - TWICE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE Previously - a Pole told you that the Earth rotates around the Sun Hey, why don't we continue with the thread whether Kopernikus was German or not. And while we are at it, let's discuss whether Marie Curie was Russian or not. <g>

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Jul 29, 09, 09:03 #103

lesser:

Parents usually influence views of their children to some extend. These are foundations and building contain more elements. Notice that cultural trends changing all the time and your theory would make such changes impossible.

Errwhat? That's not a theory, it's an observed fact. Have you never taken a Political Science course?

Ogorki:

Ogorki

Not to offend, but it's kind of funny how you measure a country's probability of becoming a superpower by the strength of their relationship with Poland.

lesserThreads: 7 Posts: 2,014 Joined: Oct 19, 07 ♂	Edited by: lesser Jul 29, 09, 20:36 #104
Pan Kazimierz: Errwhat? That's not a theory, it's an observed fact. Have you never taken a Political Science course? You simply overestimate the influence of parents. I will stick to my interpretation which is logical and consistent as I mentioned earlier.

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Jul 30, 09, 10:01 #105

lesser:

You simply overestimate the influence of parents.

That's really hard to do. One thing they tell you over and over and over again is that people almost always end up voting as their parents. And that when predicting how someone belonging to a certain demographic (young, education level, etc.) will vote, see: how their parents voted, and go with that. And that when parents disagree politically, it's still going to be the same vote as the parent with which they identify the most.
This hold true in every Rep. Democracy, everywhere. More so in the US because of their only having two parties, but Europe as well.
What you said was, "parents usually influence the views of their children to some extent". That's misleading. Parents almost always are, up and away, the single greatest influence on their children's voting in existence. Peer group comes next; a long, long way down the ladder.

lesser:

This was not popular vote, there were a lot of restriction.

There were a lot of restrictions on who could vote. But out of those who could, the Representative candidate that got the most votes won. This has been extended to Senate today, but Presidential elections are determined by popular vote by no stretch of the imagination.

♂

Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Jul 30, 09, 10:39 #106

Pan Kazimierz:

That's really hard to do. One thing they tell you over and over and over again is that people almost always end up voting as their parents.

The contrary is true.
Most youth want to be nothing more than different from their parents...starting in the puberty it is part of the process to become grown up.
Why do you think every parent generation nags about the young ones and groans.

How do you think the big youth movements like the 68's came about? Teenager wanting to do everything different as their parents.

You can see it in Germany right now..the 68'er generation is old now but their kids often prefer now old fashioned values again, the whole thing their own parents fighted against.

Of course influence the views of the parents the next generation, but it is the nature of youth to rebel against old, learned values and education.
So the views of the parents are often the first things which suffer...even if only for the sake or it!

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂	Jul 30, 09, 11:21 #107
BB has a point. There is ever more pronounced in Japan and is coming to the fore in many Western countries. Times have changed and we are fighting different causes. Read up on the rojinrui Vs shinjinrui issue and you will see what BB means.

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Jul 30, 09, 12:26 #108

Bratwurst Boy:

The contrary is true.

You know, I forgot to mention that in every class, there's always a number of clowns that think their personal opinions of the world and the psychology of the average human mind is an authority over massive studies conducted on a local and global scale. Let me be clear: what I am telling you is not disputed, it is not controversial, and it is not complicated. It is very plain, very simple fact, and if you are arguing it, then you are simply wrong. In fact, if you insinuate in any way that it is not true in an essay, you will probably fail automatically, because it is a very basic and elementary point that everyone in the course is expected to know better than their times tables. There is no more to it.

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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Jul 30, 09, 12:33 #109

Pan Kazimierz:

what I am telling you is not disputed, it is not controversial, and it is not complicated. It is very plain, very simple fact, and if you are arguing it, then you are simply wrong.

Rofl!!!!

Then you should better look elsewhere...into a mirror maybe, you may like it as it won't talk back...because that's a discussion board here.
And you know..it takes at least two for a good discussion. LOL

Pan KazimierzThreads: 2 Posts: 276 Joined: Jul 4, 09 ♂	Jul 30, 09, 12:38 #110
Bratwurst Boy: And you know..it takes at least two for a good discussion. LOL A good discussion. In my opinion, a discussion that is simply an argument against known, observed fact is not a good one. Are we also going to discuss whether or not green is a color, or whether the sun shines in the daytime?

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Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Jul 30, 09, 12:49 #111

Pan Kazimierz:

A good discussion. In my opinion, a discussion that is simply an argument against known, observed fact is not a good one.

And you telling everybody what a fact is and what can't discussed because it's the "plain truth" of course, did I get that right?

Pany? Do you listen to yourself sometimes? :)

Contrary to you I brought at least two examples where the children did exactly what you denied...objecting to their parents ways and views, acting differently, with purpose.
They even changed the whole political landscape in Germany (and not only here). The 68'ers were a whole western world-phenomenon.

Should tell you something about YOUR "plain truth" and who is the clown here!

♂

Edited by: Pan Kazimierz Jul 30, 09, 13:01 #112

Bratwurst Boy:

And you telling everybody what a fact is and what can't discussed because it's the "plain truth" of course, did I get that right?

I first gave you the respect of assuming that you already knew this basic point, and simply hadn't considered it earlier.
If something has been confirmed by every large-and-small scale study ever done on it, with numerous of those, why should I not tell you that it's silly to debate it?

Bratwurst Boy:

Pany? Do you listen to yourself sometimes? :)

I do indeed. We hold wonderful conversations together.

Bratwurst Boy:

Contrary to you I brought at least two examples where the children did exactly what you denied...objecting to their parents ways and views, acting differently, with purpose.
They even changed the whole political landscape in Germany (and not only here). The 68'ers were a whole western world-phenomenon.

Missing absolutely crucial points:
A) Did you check the numbers.
B) Did you check polls regarding the change in percentage of who's votes or views actually differed from their parents/a parent's.
C) Did you check voter turnout/activity level among the demographic in question.

That's how it's done. Further, are you familiar with the term 'voter realignment'?

♂

Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Jul 30, 09, 13:07 #113

You've got to be kidding...which study would something like the 68'er movement ignore???
Are you serious or are you just pulling our leg?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_student_movement

And again...if all kids would become and behave and think like their parents did the christian church for example would still be as almighty as she was 500 years back.
A society would never change or evolve if the kids always do like their parents did.
We would still live in the middle ages...

How can you ignore these developments?

Please provide a link to your "facts", I'm very interested in this study now....

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Jul 30, 09, 14:00 #114

Bratwurst Boy:

You've got to be kidding...which study would something like the 68'er movement ignore???
Are you serious or are you just pulling our leg?

I am not sure what this sentence means.

Bratwurst Boy:

And again...if all kids would become and behave and think like their parents did the christian church for example would still be as almighty as she was 500 years back.
A society would never change or evolve if the kids always do like their parents did.
We would still live in the middle ages...

How can you ignore these developments?

That's a silly thing to say. The vast majority of children also have the same number of fingers, toes, and teeth as their parents, yet we know those numbers have also changed over time. But you can't say that therefore, the vast majority of children don't really have the same number of digits as their parents did.

Also, I said that children almost always -vote- as their parents.

Bratwurst Boy:

Please provide a link to your "facts", I'm very interested in this study now....

If you're so interested, feel free to do as I did and take a PolScience course. There's no way you could not hear it and pass; they won't shut up about it. It practically equates to PolSci what the Times Tables are to Mathematics. My net connection is limited for the moment; if I should find in the near future that I have time that I don't know what to do with and my internet works, by some miracle, at that same time, then I will be more than happy to look for some sources for your education. Alternatively, I don't think that it would be so difficult for you to find it yourself, if you really believe I'm making this up/lying to you. It's not exactly obscure to the field.

♂

Edited by: Bratwurst Boy Jul 30, 09, 14:13 #115

Pan Kazimierz:

Also, I said that children almost always -vote- as their parents.

Well, I didn't...and the green party in Germany for example is voted for by millions...she didn't even exist before the 68'er movement.

To say children generally or mostly vote like their parents is really silly!

Pan Kazimierz:

If you're so interested, feel free to do as I did and take a PolScience course.

So there is no study to support your "facts"...what a surprise!

♂

Jul 30, 09, 14:29 #116

Bratwurst Boy:

Well, I didn't...and the green party in Germany for example is voted for by millions...she didn't even exist before the 68'er movement.

A) Did you check the numbers.
B) Did you check polls regarding the change in percentage of who's votes or views actually differed from their parents/a parent's.
C) Did you check voter turnout/activity level among the demographic in question.

That's how it's done. Further, are you familiar with the term 'voter realignment'?

Bratwurst Boy:

To say children generally or mostly vote like their parents is really silly!

Here's a bright idea: why don't you go look into the matter more extensively before trying to counter known observations with your vague impressions?

Bratwurst Boy:

So there is no study to support your "facts"...what a surprise!

Here's another one: why don't you go look into the matter more extensively (or at all), before determining that the fact that I didn't hand you empirical proof on a silver platter means that there isn't any. I often have to refresh thrice just to make a post, so I'm not right now going to hit up any pages with major ads on them, sorry.

Bratwurst BoyThreads: 11 Posts: 14,563 Joined: Apr 2, 07 ♂	Jul 30, 09, 14:31 #117
A small link would do, thank you! :)

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Jul 30, 09, 21:03 #118

Pan Kazimierz:

That's really hard to do. One thing they tell you over and over and over again is that people almost always end up voting as their parents. And that when predicting how someone belonging to a certain demographic (young, education level, etc.) will vote, see: how their parents voted, and go with that. And that when parents disagree politically, it's still going to be the same vote as the parent with which they identify the most.
This hold true in every Rep. Democracy, everywhere. More so in the US because of their only having two parties, but Europe as well.

Even if children vote like parents, this doesn't confirm your thesis. While it is in agreement with mine. There are almost always two major parties that gather most of votes. Naturally so many people cannot hold almost the same views, world is not black or white. Republican party gather votes of social-conservatives, nationalists, free marketers or even libertarians. There is whole variety of views often strangely mixed in human mind. Parents provide foundations and children often use it to flow in some direction. I don't mean completely opposite direction, this is rather rare. This is some kind of 'correction course'.

Pan Kazimierz:

Parents almost always are, up and away, the single greatest influence on their children's voting in existence. Peer group comes next; a long, long way down the ladder.

I agree that influence of parents is the greatest but I still think that you overestimate this matter.

Pan Kazimierz:

There were a lot of restrictions on who could vote. But out of those who could, the Representative candidate that got the most votes won. This has been extended to Senate today, but Presidential elections are determined by popular vote by no stretch of the imagination.

It went far from my original point, If there is a lot of restrictions this means that there is no popular voting.

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Jul 31, 09, 16:06 #119

lesser:

Even if children vote like parents, this doesn't confirm your thesis. While it is in agreement with mine.

Yes, technically yours was correct. I'm just noting that the wording, though technically correct, was misleading in that it implied a far less direct correlation than what actually existed.
You're mostly right on the rest of that first part of your post... quick question: you live in the States?

lesser:

I agree that influence of parents is the greatest but I still think that you overestimate this matter.

Nope. Starts with parents, then long way down comes peer group, then education level, then we have a jumble of income/ethnic background/age, etc. Religion is generally not a reliable indicator, except in the case of Jews in the States (I'm not sure about elsewhere, that's where I studied), where their Democratic vote is overwhelmingly high. By 'jumble', I mean, "I'm not really sure of the exact order these come in, and I don't feel like looking it up because they all end up being individually insignificant next to a combination of parental influence and all the others.

lesserThreads: 7 Posts: 2,014 Joined: Oct 19, 07 ♂	Edited by: lesser Aug 1, 09, 22:18 #120
Pan Kazimierz: quick question: you live in the States? If I would be from the US then my English would be far better! :)

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