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Without Smolensk the vote would've been 78-22


posts: 16

Polonius3Threads: 1,005
Posts: 4,834
Joined: Apr 11, 08 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 18:35    #1
If the Smolensk trgaedy had not occurrred, my guestimate is that Lech Kaczyński would have porbbaly not garnered more than some 22%-25% of the vote, with Komorowski winning the rmeaining 78%-75% or so. The national mourning, esp. TV coverage of thousands of of mourners outside the Presidential Palace and their anti-Tusk, anti-PO, anti-Gazeta Wyborcza and anti-TVN remarks created a whole new mindframe. Many realised what they were being spoon-fed by the pro-PO anti-Kaczyński media was a load of crap. It's no wonder Jarosław did as well as he did, and even commie Kwaśniewski commented that Kaczyński had won precisely because he lost. He lost the presidency but won a new perspective for PiS in next year's parliamentary poll. If the PO stumbles in the next 500 days, that will be grist to Kaczyński's mill.
SzwedwPolsceThreads: 13
Posts: 1,915
Joined: Feb 21, 09 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 18:38    #2
Polonius3:
He lost the presidency but won a new perspective for PiS in next year's parliamentary poll.

The general opinion is that the Smolensk-effect will not survive the summer.
ZedThreads: -
Posts: 304
Joined: May 25, 10 ♂ 		Edited by: Zed  Jul 6, 10, 18:53    #3
I would concur with the assertion of Polonius3, i.e. that LK would have lost at a much higher ratio, had it not been for the said air crash. Unfortunately too many Poles are very emotional and thus JK achieved a very high election result indeed.
Sire BrensharThreads: 1
Posts: 86
Joined: Jan 23, 10 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 21:47    #4
Had there been no Smolensk Jaroslaw might not even have been running for president.
pgtxThreads: 49
Posts: 6,327
Joined: Feb 14, 09  Gold Member MEMBER ♀ 		 Jul 6, 10, 21:50    #5
Zed:
Unfortunately too many Poles are very emotional and thus JK achieved a very high election result indeed.

yeah... many Poles voted out of pity...
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,158
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 21:54    #6
The chance was missed. If the election was in May, JK would have taken it.
dtaylor5632Threads: 49
Posts: 4,459
Joined: May 2, 09  Pictures: 3 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 21:55    #7
Seanus:
The chance was missed. If the election was in May, JK would have taken it.

Seanus, I really dont get you...
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,158
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 22:04    #8
The sympathy factor was higher then
plk123Threads: 30
Posts: 6,412
Joined: Aug 29, 07  Pictures: 2 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 22:15    #9
Sire Brenshar:
Had there been no Smolensk Jaroslaw might not even have been running for president.

right

Seanus:
The chance was missed. If the election was in May, JK would have taken it.

thank goodness
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,158
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 22:19    #10
Ah, but Polska jest najważniesza according to JK ;0 ;0 ;)
plk123Threads: 30
Posts: 6,412
Joined: Aug 29, 07  Pictures: 2 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 22:20    #11
Seanus:
Ah, but Polska jest najważniesza according to JK ;0 ;0 ;)

it is but gierek wasn't.
pgtxThreads: 49
Posts: 6,327
Joined: Feb 14, 09  Gold Member MEMBER ♀ 		 Jul 6, 10, 22:23    #12
if Kaczka's middle name was Franciszek, we would have our own Polish JFK...

;)
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,158
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 22:25    #13
A prime target for assassination then? :( :(
plk123Threads: 30
Posts: 6,412
Joined: Aug 29, 07  Pictures: 2 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 22:41    #14
Seanus:
A prime target for assassination then? :( :(

didn't the russians shoot the his plane out of the sky? ;) :D
SeanusThreads: 22
Posts: 30,158
Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 22:49    #15
He's still around. Didn't you see him on tv? ;)
warszawskiThreads: 60
Posts: 2,389
Joined: May 21, 10 ♂ 		 Jul 6, 10, 23:15    #16
Polonius3:
Kaczyński had won precisely because he lost


I would agree with the above comment, PIS has moved closer to the center with JK at the helm. They now have 12 months to re-invent themselves, there are some very wise heads guiding them, do not underestimate their determination.PO now has their hands tied on market reforms with health care and pensions. It is going to be a very interesting period before the election.


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