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Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow?

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posts: 55

SpecialPolak

Nov 18, 09, 17:12 #31

Getting started... this can never end... there are just too many:

(Wikipedia is also full of this, but Wikipedia is user generated,
so giving you the link it will allow all kind of real estate agents to modify the page
and say that no there is no real estate bubble in poland)

National Bank of Poland
Comparison of measures of bubble in the housing market of 6 major cities in Poland:

w w w .soc.cas.cz/download/871/paper_laszek_widlak_augustyniak_W04.pdf

National Bank of Poland warns about the " house price bubble " :

w w w .nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/en/publikacje/inne/bank_i_kredyt/2008_08/laszek. html

;)

♂

Edited by: SeanBM Nov 25, 09, 10:45 #32

SpecialPolak:

w w w .soc.cas.cz/download/871/paper_laszek_widlak_augustyniak_W04.pdf

<br />

SpecialPolak:

w w w .nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/en/publikacje/inne/bank_i_kredyt/2008_08/laszek. html

Both of these links are the same PDF file from Jacek Łaszek, Marta Widłak from NBP.

So you have come from

SpecialP:

More and more real estate market reports appear each week

and

SpecialPolak:

Getting started... this can never end... there are just too many:

to just one link.

Post more and I will read those too.

SpecialPolak:

(Wikipedia is also full of this, but Wikipedia is user generated,
so giving you the link it will allow all kind of real estate agents to modify the page
and say that no there is no real estate bubble in poland)

And them same goes for people who profit from a downturn in the market and other disgruntled people.

SpecialPolak	Nov 25, 09, 11:12 #33
There were also other 10 - 15 in the 5 threads on this forum where hundreds of users are posting their opinions about the collapse of prices on the mafia driven real estate polish market

andy bThreads: 7 Posts: 195 Joined: Nov 26, 07 ♂	Nov 25, 09, 14:19 #34
There were also other 10 - 15 in the 5 threads on this forum where hundreds of users are posting their opinions about the collapse of prices on the mafia driven real estate polish market Hi spammer, you and your multiple aliases are responsible for all of the same deluded lies and misinformation being spread on this forum.

♀

Nov 26, 09, 12:13 #35

As someone living in Ireland and seen what happened here, i find its hilarious that people in Poland think that their property is not in a gigantic bubble. Denial Denial Denial. For 200,000 zloty i would expect a very nice 3 BEDROOM apartment in a big city. The property prices and rent in Poland and Czech etc are criminal, and will explode with an ounce of justice. Like here in Ireland there will be plenty of paid clowns defending the criminality until the last minute.

AvalonThreads: 3 Posts: 814 Joined: Sep 11, 07 ♂	Nov 26, 09, 12:32 #36
milky another new alias....lol

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 57 Posts: 5,478 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER ♂	Edited by: Wroclaw Boy Nov 26, 09, 12:54 #37
milky: For 200,000 zloty i would expect a very nice 3 BEDROOM apartment in a big city. and you'll get it in many cities. Not the main ones but thrid tier, i can think of a few in my local area, Swidnica, Klodzko, Strzelin, Dzierzoniow. SpecialPolak: posting their opinions about the collapse of prices on the mafia driven real estate polish market Is that your latest idea - mafia no less.

♂

Edited by: Ziemowit Nov 26, 09, 12:57 #38

Avalon:

milky

another new alias....lol

I think he didn't buy when the prices were at their lowest, then when they climbed up waited until they return to their lowest, and as it hasn't happened yet, he is trying to put a spell on them in the hope they return to their lowest or even they down to less than their lowest.

Isn't he a Pole hoping to return to Poland and to make an investment in real estate?

SpimowitzSS	Nov 26, 09, 17:34 #39
Ziemowit, Avalon, how many aliases do you have ? This is being pathetic. Whenever somebody says the OBVIOUS: that prices in apartments will COLLAPSE in Poland very soon... he is being accused of being a clone... Isn't that pathetic ? This is just the last resort of the desperate real estate developers who havent sold a single apartment in quite a LONG TIME...

polskyThreads: 5 Posts: 98 Joined: May 26, 09 ♀	Jan 4, 10, 11:09 #40
Yes there is a big property prices bubble in Poland. Prices will go down 20-50% until they stabilise

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Jan 4, 10, 14:25 #41
Why do you think he's doing it? He believes that the prices are going to crash and he's trying to warn others to wait?

♂

Jan 4, 10, 15:11 #42

delphiandomine:

No, he's doing it because he can't afford to buy in Krakow and has a *huge* chip on his shoulder about it. He's desperately hoping (in his deluded, sad world) that by spamming this forum, people won't buy property in Krakow and prices will fall dramatically.

Someone might want to point out that this forum isn't exactly a market maker...

I think there is a correction in the works because the fundamentals don't add up for me. Try as I might, I can't figure out why apartments in Warsaw cost more than in Frankfurt.

For investors, why are you bullish on property in polish cities? Non emotional answers would be nice.

Here are my worries

rental yields are low
price to income ratio seems skewed
large percentage of foreign denominated mortgages not hedged
low wage growth (attracts foreign capital)
huge increase in prices disproportionate to wage increases
cost to borrow capital at historically low levels

on the plus side

GDP is growing (much faster than wages)
unemployment is low
low mortgage default rate (I assume, really difficult to find actual numbers)

HarryThreads: 62 Posts: 8,508 Joined: May 2, 07 ♂ [Suspended]	Jan 4, 10, 15:42 #43
convex: Try as I might, I can't figure out why apartments in Warsaw cost more than in Frankfurt. The problem is that they do not cost more. Not unless you want high-end city centre apartments: those are more expensive in Warsaw due to the lower supply thereof.

convexThreads: 46 Posts: 7,185 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Jan 4, 10, 15:52 #44
Harry: The problem is that they do not cost more. What would you say is an average modest apartment in Warsaw? 50m2 +/- 400-500k?

♂ [Suspended]

Jan 4, 10, 17:00 #45

convex:

What would you say is an average modest apartment in Warsaw?

Outside the city centre selling prices on the secondary market for flats more than ten years old are in the region of 6,500zl to 7,000zl per square metre. Asking prices are higher! But if you are OK with living somewhere like Wesola, you can very easily get new-built flats for 5,500zl per square metre, or for 6,500zl per square metre Białołęka.

♂

Jan 4, 10, 17:56 #46

convex

For investors, why are you bullish on property in polish cities? Non emotional answers would be nice.

As a non-emotional builder, I can give you a some good reasons.

a) Even with 2,000.000 Poles working abroad, there is a need for some 3,000.000 new dwellings including those needed to replace exisiting defective housing stock.(Stats according to GUS 2004)
b) Building costs for new apartments is around 2,000 to 3,000 PLN m2 (average quality to developers standard, I am not talking high end developments) excluding the cost of the land.
(not the 600 PLN m2 that the idiot Mark Biernat would have you believe)
c) Average time from initial planning for large blocks or estate is 3-4 years by the time all permissions are granted.
d) Wages/materials/fuel used in constructioin have been rising for the past 4 years and are not going down.
e) Green taxes being brought in by the EU will increase the cost of everything from materials to the new certificates for "energy efficiency" that are required to be provided by the developers to the buyers (all these costs mount up substancially and have to be included as overall costs.
f) complying with Health & Safety legisilation with soon become compulsary in Poland (more jobs for the EU boys) which will again add to the cost of a project. (In the UK it added 8% to my project costs. ( an example would be having to supply toilets, showers and a canteen for the men on site, even small sites. Disposing of waste by approved contractors to landfill sites where they charge a fortune because of the EU regulations)
g) Financing a new project is going to cost more from the banks (if you can get them to lend to you) because of the ass-**le bankers.
h) As a pre-condition to joining the EU, Poland has to adopt the euro which means that wages will have to go up or is the suggestion that all the countries to the West of Poland will come here to do their shopping?. When Spain and Germany adopted the euro, prices for food etc, rose by around 15% and the people there are still complaining now.

So you see, 5-6000 PLN m2 does not seem all that expensive if you know what you are talking about and you want something "new". Developers have to make a profit to make it worthwhile to build at all. Try and remember a single building project that has come in under budget?

The reason that Polish people are asking 4000 PLN m2 for total crap is that they know they can get it as there is not enough "affordable new" on the market.
Poles would rather have a new car than a nice apartment, thats their choice, but you will see the price of cars shoot up in the next couple of years, if you can afford the petrol/diesel to drive them.
Petrol has risen by 50% in the past 4 years, has that stopped people from driving?
Perhaps people will go back to using horse and carts?

I have spent most of my whole working life in construction so I hope this is the non-emotional response you wanted.

I welcome constructive criticism about the property market here in Poland but when I want an opinion on my health, I do not ask a bus driver.

Do not ask me how the Polish people will be able to afford housing, I have no idea, any more than I have any idea why nearly eveything here is dealt with in cash purchases.

♂

Jan 5, 10, 00:18 #47

Avalon:

Do not ask me how the Polish people will be able to afford housing, I have no idea, any more than I have any idea why nearly eveything here is dealt with in cash purchases.

Thanks for your worthy input Avalon, your comments make a lot of sense, the question is that how will Polish people be able to afford affordable housing, it seems to me that people with foreign cash/income still see buying real estate in Poland as cheap, apart from fuel, gas and electricity everything else in Poland is cheaper, food for example is 30/50 cheaper than most western countries. Just my owns pence worth, I don't think there will be a massive jump in wages and pensions in the foreseeable future, there will however be ongoing increases in fuel cost, ie petrol, gas and electricity.
Is investing in Polish real estate worth it, Yes if you live in Poland, No if your a outside investor, I say this because of the red tape involved in doing any business transaction in Poland is a hassle and secondly the uncertain position of the Polish zlote, (it has lost 20% of its value in the last 18 months)
Overseas Superannuation funds will still invest in commercial properties as any loses could be used as a tax deduction.
Finally I don't think the younger Polish generation will take too kind to the fact that real estate and owning a house is beyond their reach.

♀

Jan 5, 10, 17:20 #48

quotes=Avalon As a builder, I can give you a some good reasons.

a) Even with 2,000.000 Poles working abroad, there is a need for some 3,000.000 new dwellings including those needed to replace exisiting defective housing stock.(Stats according to GUS 2004)

Finally you spill the beans and say that you are a builder yourself,
this is why you spam this forum with your fantasies.

This "need" for 3.000.000 new dwellings is COMPLETELY made up by you.

There nothing real about this. Thosands of new apartments
are unsold, and stay empty. 3.000.000 new dwellings needed?

Even little kids are laughing in your face.

b) Building costs for new apartments is around 2,000 to 3,000 PLN m2 (average quality to developers standard, I am not talking high end developments) excluding the cost of the land.
(not the 600 PLN m2 that the idiot Mark Biernat would have you believe)

That's again big time BS. We examplined all costs into building,
and total cost NEVER surpassed 1000 PLN/sq.m. built.

But of course a builder will lie for money everyday...

d) Wages/materials/fuel used in constructioin have been rising for the past 4 years and are not going down.

Another straight lie. Construction materials - for example iron and steel
last year have been going 4 times DOWN in price because of crisis.

How can you lie so much, without blinking Avalon?
Not everyone is an empty brain naive idiot who will buy any BS you make up here...

g) Financing a new project is going to cost more from the banks (if you can get them to lend to you) because of the ass-**le bankers.

So you don't do it even with your own money Avalon?
That's newspapers are full of situations / sitraight scams when developers
like you took the money from clients for a paper project, and then the "project"
went bankrupt... leaving only cheated banks and clients...

h) As a pre-condition to joining the EU, Poland has to adopt the euro

That is pure crap again Avalon.
Poland is in EU already since 2004, and we are in 2010 !

And if Poland will ever adopt the euro, it will be after 2015 !

Many countries are in EU like United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and they will
probably NEVER adopt the euro.

You are so completely full of BS and lies.

Moderators should ban you from writing such crap over and over again.

I have spent most of my whole working life in construction so I hope this is the non-emotional response you wanted.

♂

Jan 5, 10, 17:36 #49

Avalon:

(Stats according to GUS 2004)

polsky:

COMPLETELY made up by you.

He does give the source of his statement.

polsky:

We examplined all costs into building,
and total cost NEVER surpassed 1000 PLN/sq.m. built.

That is not true.

polsky:

Another straight lie. Construction materials - for example iron and steel
last year have been going 4 times DOWN in price because of crisis.

Prove it.

polsky:

So you don't do it even with your own money Avalon?

And you say you have been in construction, do me a favour and stop lying.

polsky:

That's newspapers are full of situations / sitraight scams when developers
like you took the money from clients for a paper project, and then the "project"
went bankrupt... leaving only cheated banks and clients...

I have met Avalon and seen one of his projects and I can tell you that he is an upstanding gentleman who is incapable of your slanderous accusation.

polsky:

Moderators should ban you from writing such crap over and over again.

Really this only applies to you.

polsky:

I have spent most of my whole working life in construction

That is the biggest lie you have told about yourself yet.

♂ [Suspended]

Jan 5, 10, 17:44 #50

polsky:

Even little kids are laughing in your face.

Wasn't it me that laughed in your face on the phone, beermat?

polsky:

That's again big time BS. We examplined all costs into building,
and total cost NEVER surpassed 1000 PLN/sq.m. built.

What does an unemployed "english teacher" from Krakow know about property? Mark, you live in a rented flat in a bad part of Krakow, what do you know about property?

polsky:

Another straight lie. Construction materials - for example iron and steel
last year have been going 4 times DOWN in price because of crisis.

4 times down? Beermat, where do you get this stuff from? It's priceless...have you thought about a career in comedy?

polsky:

So you don't do it even with your own money Avalon?

And you claim to teach Business English, Mark Biernat?

If you knew the first thing about business, you'd know that big projects are all about spending someone else's money.

polsky:

Many countries are in EU like United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and they will
probably NEVER adopt the euro.

Mark, I know it's tough living in a run down flat in a run down part of Krakow with a neurotic wife and hideous child, but please try and keep up. Norway isn't a member of the EU and never has been!

As for the EU - they've made it very, very clear that 2004-2007 accesssion countries must adopt the Euro. There's no negotiation on the matter - it's stated in the accession agreement that the Euro must be adopted. The UK, Sweden and Denmark have been allowed to do so because they never agreed to it in the first place - unlike the A10+2 countries.

polsky:

Moderators should ban you from writing such crap over and over again.

I'm mystified as to why you haven't been banned, Mark Biernat.

♂ [Suspended]

Jan 5, 10, 17:49 #51

polsky:

Thosands of new apartments are unsold, and stay empty

And yet little Mark can not afford to buy one. Poor Mark! Perhaps if he had a brain he could earn enough to buy one of those unsold flats.

polsky:

Many countries are in EU like United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and they will
probably NEVER adopt the euro.

Poor little Mark, his brain is so small that he doesn't even know that Norway isn't in the EU. No wonder he can not get a halfway decent job and earn enough money to buy a flat!

♂

Jan 5, 10, 22:23 #52

polsky

Finally you spill the beans and say that you are a builder yourself,
this is why you spam this forum with your fantasies.

Mark, I have never denied I am a retired builder, do you have any skills at all?

That's again big time BS. We examplined all costs into building,
and total cost NEVER surpassed 1000 PLN/sq.m. built.

But of course a builder will lie for money everyday...

I have experience of building in Poland, do you? You stated under an alias that you work in an accountants office and yet you seem to know nothing about business practice?

That is pure crap again Avalon.
Poland is in EU already since 2004, and we are in 2010 !

And if Poland will ever adopt the euro, it will be after 2015 !

Many countries are in EU like United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and they will
probably NEVER adopt the euro.

You are so completely full of BS and lies.

Do you understand English?.....I stated a fact, Poland has to adopt the euro as its currency. I have no idea as to exactly when but Tusk has pencilled in 2015. I only stated that wages will have to increase as will all commodities.

Being called a liar is a bit rich coming from someone who spams this forum under so many alias's and has never backed up with facts, any statement he has made, except for a few articals that are dated prior to 2008 are totallaly irrelevant to the situation that exists in Krakow today.

Mark, you live in a fantasy world and should seriously consider seeking treatment.

♂

Jan 6, 10, 19:02 #53

bolek:

Thanks for your worthy input Avalon

Thanks alot for the builders perspective. It does make sense that new construction would cost nearly as much as it does further west (land and labor being cheaper, materials higher). Does bureaucracy affect the end price here more than in other countries that you've done development in?

bolek:

Is investing in Polish real estate worth it, Yes if you live in Poland, No if your a outside investor

If you've got a 30 year note, and you plan on living there for the duration, it makes perfect sense. If you're speculating and hoping to get rid of property in 5 years at a profit...maybe not so much.

Slovakia is a good example of what will happen when Poland goes to the Euro. Once Poland no longer has control over its monetary policy, it won't be able to keep labor cheap, which will mean a decline in FDI. Worried about that bit.

polsky:

Many countries are in EU like United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and they will
probably NEVER adopt the euro.

Norway isn't part of the EU, UK and Denmark have opt-out agreements, and Sweden isn't meeting the budgetary requirements to adopt the Euro. I don't think Poland has the will to make the sacrifices needed to join the Euro anytime soon (inflation is what is holding Poland back).

♂

Jan 6, 10, 21:06 #54

convex

Does bureaucracy affect the end price here more than in other countries that you've done development in?

Yes, and its a lot more expensive here than in the UK.
eg:Small block of flats in the UK, architect, planning permission, buidling inspector. £4-5000.00.
This includes 5 visits from Local council building inspector.

Poland, architect, planning permission £10-20,000 depending on greed. You then have to employ your own building inspector and pay him around around £100.00. a month for 1 or 2 half hour visits and this is for the duration of the contract. On completion, you pay £200.00. each for the electrics and water connection to be tested and certified and "stamped" (this is not carried out by the companies that install same)
The city council then have to "sign off" the building (legalize it) and if there is any discrepancy on any measurements you are fined £600.00. On my parking spaces (for 26 cars I was undersized by 60cm, apparently, nobody in Poland drives a Maluch, they all drive SUV's or Rolls Royces) so was fined. They always find something wrong so there is always a fine. (Nobody told me this in the beginning but apparently its the norm in Poland)
On 13 apartments, the man that issues the "energy certificate" ( or HIPS as its known in the UK) wanted £200.00. per apartment but managed to talk him down to £900.00. as a job lot.

I could write a book or make a film about getting the electricity, water and gas companies to actually connect the building up to the mains services. You have to get the written permission of all the neighbours and landowners over/under wherever the cables/pipes pass and God help you if they live abroad or in the North of poland. This does not include the 50 visits to each office to sign different forms and sometimes travel to 3 different offices to get them "stamped".

I would have to say that time and moneywise, its at least 400% more expensive to do the paperwork for a project of identical size in the UK. This does not take into consideration, the stress of having to deal with the dumb bast***ds.

The moment you buy the land to build on, you pay a business tax, based on the size of the land until you have sold all the properties (this does not apply in the UK)

I have more paperwork for one project than I had for 10 years continuous work in the UK.

So when you read what Mark Biernat (Polsky, etc, etc, etc or whatever name he decides to use on the day) posts on these property threads, you know he is talking out of his ass.

That's again big time BS. We examplined all costs into building,
and total cost NEVER surpassed 1000 PLN/sq.m. built.

I would want that just for the paperwork.

♀

Jan 22, 10, 17:32 #55

instead of talking about the facts, you constantly just do personal attacks trying to avoid the FACTS. I posted here articles, studies, even the biggest PROPERTY PRICES WEBSITE in the world analyses.

People can see the truth everyday, they will not simply blindly believe your personal attacks just because you have thousands of posts (your whole life is this forum and intoxicating people with your opinions), because people are not blind and not stupid as you and the other developers want them to be.

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