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Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49%


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 Nov 23, 11, 19:21    #241
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- It wouldn’t make sense for Poland to fix the zloty to the euro now in the European Union’s Exchange Rate Mechanism as such a move would be “a recipe for turmoil” and speculation on the currency market, central bank Governor Marek Belka said in an interview published today on the central bank’s Obserwatorfinansowy.pl website.

Poland can’t achieve its political goals in the European Union without joining the euro area, Belka said, according to the website. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Donald Tusk would have been criticized has he announced a deadline for adoption at a moment when currency area’s rupture can’t be ruled out, Obserwatorfinansowy.pl quoted Belka as saying.

pipThreads: 11
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 Nov 23, 11, 20:00    #242
i hope Poland doesn't take the Euro.
scottie1113Threads: 11
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 Nov 23, 11, 20:47    #243
I think it's going to be a while before Poland is ready to accept the Euro, and I really hope it doesn't happen.
milkyThreads: 10
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 Nov 23, 11, 21:27    #244
Wroclaw:
've said that, or something similar, ple

maybe 5% of the reason..
milkyThreads: 10
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 Nov 23, 11, 22:19    #245
The results of the fifteenth wave of the survey of high-level professionals from the management and operating divisions of 200 largest Polish construction companies, which was conducted for the purposes of report “Construction sector in Poland H2 2011 – Comparative regional analysis and development forecasts for 2011-2014”, reveal a strong downturn in construction industry confidence. PMR Polish Construction Confidence Indicator had a value of -2.4 pts in September 2011, presenting a much less optimistic outlook of construction companies on the future market situation after two years of relative stabilisation.

http://oxstones.com/price-wars-to-continue-for-at-least-two-years-on-t he-polish-construction-market/
scottie1113Threads: 11
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 Nov 23, 11, 22:25    #246
OK, and you still think prices are going to come down dramatically?
PeterWeg03  Nov 24, 11, 01:11    #247
theKNOWLEDGE:

Bit of a misleading headline - it should say "new unsold" rather than just "unsold".


Utterly irrelevant, they are comparing like with like.
BRSThreads: -
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Edited by: BRS  Nov 24, 11, 09:19    #248
Despite this construction news, it is still impossible to even build a piece of $%*& apartment and sell it at a profit if there was a severe fall in prices.

Poland had a construction boom with easy profits, that why Italian companies are building the metro, Greek companies are building roads, Chinese companies tried to build roads and German and Austrian companies are so large - this still is considered the land of construction opportunity. Severe competition puts the poorly managed construction companies into bankruptcy and cleans up the market. I don't expect we will see any of the big names thinking its strategically a good idea to leave Poland.
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 Nov 24, 11, 09:28    #249
milky:
much less optimistic outlook of construction companies



For the life of me I can't get the edit to work, my message should start:

Despite this construction news, it is.....
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 Nov 24, 11, 10:01    #250
milky:

presenting a much less optimistic outlook of construction companies on the future market situation after two years of relative stabilisation.


You have known this for the past 2 years. If the banks are not lending because of the Euro crises, building will slow down. The money to buy the projects is not there, This will not mean much of a decrease in prices because there is a "finite" limit on being profitable and going broke. There is no point in companies investing millions/billions on projects they cannot sell. Speculative builing will stop and only projects which are subscribed by at least 50% "off plan" will be built with gurantees/insurance for the finished project.
Because of the same mortgage lending problems in the UK, housing construction has reached its lowest level in 50 years, the demand is there but the finances are not.
This week the banks have again stopped lending to each other, reminicent of the 2008 crash. Even the govenor of the Bank of England has stated this week that he "does not know what is happening tomorrow", so much for the experts. The world has never seen a problem like the "Euro" and its impossible to know the full repercussions of a possible collapse.
Companies, banks, hedge funds are sat on billions in cash and will not invest until this mess sorts itself out.
All anybody can do is sit back and wait. If you like gambling you can try the stock market or currencies, but, you are up against the rich with insider information.
peterwegThreads: 35
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 Nov 24, 11, 13:40    #251
Avalon:
Companies, banks, hedge funds are sat on billions in cash



Banks and hedge funds don't have any cash.

Banks in particular do not lend money they have, you give them a property and they manufacture it out of thin air using the property as proof that the money exists. Any cash the may have is lent out at 10-50 times multiple as a loan on an asset.

So banks may have trillions of euro's but its mostly owed to them.
rt3dThreads: 18
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 Nov 24, 11, 15:22    #252
There will be defiantly, a slow growth in 2012 and the coming years..

www.marketwatch.com/story/very-slow-growth-2012-then-long-bear-to-2020 -2011-11-22
PeterWeg03  Nov 25, 11, 08:10    #253
Poles buying cheaper apartments in Germany

24th November 2011

Polish citizens are purchasing increasing amounts of property in Eastern Germany, reported Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

In certain locations, Poles account for as much as 50 percent of the local population. The main reason behind the rise is the cost of apartments, which are often priced up to 50 percent lower than in Poland.

A 60-65 sqm renovated apartment in Görlitz, on the German side of the Polish-German border, can cost zł.50-70,000, which is about half the price of a similar sized apartment on the Polish side of the border.

wbj.pl/article-57035-poles-buying-cheaper-apartments-in-germany.html?t yp=pam

Explain that. Bubble?
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 Nov 25, 11, 08:40    #254
PeterWeg03:
Explain that. Bubble?


Land is cheaper in Eastern germany than Poland, not only building land, also agricultural land.
milkyThreads: 10
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 Nov 25, 11, 08:53    #255
Wedle:
Explain that. Bubble?

Yes this is one of the many proofs,that it is a bubble. Unless,Poland get its act together and stop trying to compete with China as a low wage economy,people will just move to Germany or stay in Britain and Eire etc. I met a girl yesterday who was just back from 4 months work in Germany;she just stayed long enough to afford a (10 year old car)car. Soon people will be going on seasonal work to pay for the year's petrol.
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 Nov 25, 11, 09:57    #256
peterweg:

Banks in particular do not lend money they have, you give them a property and they manufacture it out of thin air using the property as proof that the money exists. Any cash the may have is lent out at 10-50 times multiple as a loan on an asset.


So I get a mortgage from the Bank to buy a property. I pay a deposit of say 20% to the Vendor. Sign the paperwork and the bank pays the other 80%, bank has security on the property, vendor has his 100% price for the property, or do you think that the vendor accepted a "promisory note" from the bank? My promise to pay the bank X amount over the next 25 years is what the bank "leverages" on. How do you think the vendor got paid for the property?. Mortgages had to exist to be "re-packaged' into "sub-prime".
Do they seriously let you out without a supervisor?
BRSThreads: -
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 Nov 25, 11, 10:06    #257
milky:
Yes this is one of the many proofs,that it is a bubble



This is proof of nothing, no one wants to live in East Germany, there are hundreds of articles about this going back more than 10 years, one of many below. Location, location, location - ghost towns are cheap.

A shrinking population and the tendency for people to move into big cities in western Germany has emptied out thousands of homes in small towns in the eastern region. - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/article2627341.ece
pipThreads: 11
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 Nov 25, 11, 10:12    #258
no matter how many times you say Poland is in a bubble- it doesn't make it true.
peterwegThreads: 35
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Edited by: peterweg  Nov 25, 11, 10:15    #259
Avalon:

So I get a mortgage from the Bank to buy a property. I pay a deposit of say 20% to the Vendor. Sign the paperwork and the bank pays the other 80%, bank has security on the property, vendor has his 100% price for the property, or do you think that the vendor accepted a "promisory note" from the bank? My promise to pay the bank X amount over the next 25 years is what the bank "leverages" on.


Correct. Banks leverage the deposit - basically they print the money based on the security of the asset with a certain possibility that it will be repaid over the term of the mortage.

Avalon:

How do you think the vendor got paid for the property?. Mortgages had to exist to be "re-packaged' into "sub-prime".


The money comes from the bank which prints it based on the fact that it now owns a new asset. The bank will be repaid by the lendor.

You seem to understand it, except for the fact that banks don't have 'cash' they have an ability to create money to lend, money which 'comes from the future' in the form of debt.

Alphaville has a mocking article about the fact that the general public has only now realised how this works

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/15/747991/on-the-demonisation- of-debt/


Here's the article it refers to


Hard to believe, isn't it? Martin Wolf, one of the experts who sat on the independent commission on banking, put it bluntly, saying in the Financial Times that "the essence of the contemporary monetary system was the creation of money, out of nothing, by private banks' often foolish lending"

Money has been privatised by stealth
cmsThreads: 6
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 Nov 25, 11, 10:24    #260
I agree that comparisons of pricing with East Germany are probably not that meaningful.

What is meaningful however is that Warsaw prices are now similar to Germany's three richest cities, Duesseldorf, Munich and Frankfurt yet wages are about 40% of the amount.
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Edited by: Wedle  Nov 25, 11, 10:51    #261
cms:
What is meaningful however is that Warsaw prices are now similar to Germany's three richest cities, Duesseldorf, Munich and Frankfurt yet wages are about 40% of the amount.


First-time buyers in Britain are struggling. House prices remain high, mortgages are hard to come by, and deposits are difficult to find. Many are now renting until long into their 30s, but survey after survey suggests that homeownership is still the ultimate goal for a British family. Yet in Europe's most economically successful country, Germany, renting is the norm. Is the grass really grüner on the continent?
As the Germans like to say, "Jein" – or yes and no. For a start, renting is not necessarily the cheap option. In thriving cities like Hamburg, Cologne and Munich, tenants might be spending up to half their wages on rent. And the prospect of paying a landlord well into old age appeals to Germans no more than it does to the Brits.

Regional variations are enormous – in Berlin, the rental property share is an incredible 90% of the total residential market, which obviously keeps prices down; even in prosperous Hamburg the rental market is nearly 80%. But in other states like Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate, homeownership is almost 60%, the highest in Germany.

Secondly, the Germans keep the purse strings tight. Stringent lending requirements ensure there isn't an oversupply of housing finance available – lenders are risk-averse and normally require a deposit of 20% or substantial collateral, and proof of good earnings over several years, which for many would-be buyers is impossible.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/mar/19/brits-buy-germans-rent
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 Nov 25, 11, 11:37    #262
peterweg:

except for the fact that banks don't have 'cash' they have an ability to create money to lend


The banks cannot create the cash until they own/secure the asset. The asset is not secured until the bank gives the money to the vendor. The vendor "HAS" his money. The money has to exist before the bank can leverage it to a larger amount. Hence money/cash is provided by the bank , but you say the banks have no cash!!!. If the bank leverages the asset/interest, by selling it on to 10 different companies then fraud has been committed which explains a lot of the present financial crises. In your world it must be permanent credit. Were you an IT consultant for the EU?
Private debt is not really the main problem, even if you cannot pay your mortgage you are not going to owe the banks 380 billion euros like Greece or 1.9 trillion euros like Italy.

"If the bank leverages the asset/interest, by selling it on to 10 different companies then fraud has been committed which explains a lot of the present financial crises."

This by the way is the "Ponzi scheme", the house/land exists and still has its individual worth and is an asset, whether the value goes up or down is immaterial.

I love this anology of the debt crises:-

It is a slow day in a little Greek Village.

The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted.

Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

On this particular day, a rich German tourist is driving through the village,
stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel
owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs,
the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the
butcher.

The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to
the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the
supplier of feed and fuel.

The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks
bill at the taverna.

The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar,
who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him
"services" on credit.

The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel
owner with the €100 note.

The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich
traveller will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note,
states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money, and leaves town.

No one produced anything.

No one earned anything.

However, the whole village is now out of debt and looking to the future with a
lot more optimism.

And that is how the bailout package works
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Edited by: Wedle  Nov 26, 11, 20:43    #263
Talking up Poland again...


WARSAW — Polish authorities criticized a decision by Moody’s Investors Service to change the outlook on the Polish banking sector to negative from stable, saying the sector’s condition doesn’t justify the cut.
Moody’s earlier Tuesday changed its outlook on Poland’s banking system to negative to reflect its expectation that the banks’ operating environment will deteriorate on weaker economic growth.
Moody’s decision is “stunning and surprising” and may lower valuations of Polish banks, said Marek Belka, governor of the National Bank of Poland. The move was likely due to systemic problems in the euro-zone banking sector, while Polish banks are well capitalized, although the need of euro-zone banks to raise their capital ratios could limit the financing of Polish units, he told reporters.

[imgs=http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2011/11/15/moody’s -cuts-polands-banking-sector-outlook-authorities-disagree/]
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 Nov 26, 11, 21:05    #264
My aim in these posts is to use my language skill to present you a more comprehensive European press view that you won’t get on other blogs. Hopefully, this gives you a more balanced perspective of what different European constituents are saying about the sovereign debt crisis.
I have already highlighted some of the issues being reported on Eurobonds. But I should point out that I believe the Germans are already considering Eurobonds despite official denials. The Germans want to explore all of the eventualities and will only discuss the palatable ones in public. The article in Der Standard from Austria points to this likelihood.
The other major story is contagion. The English-language press has had considerable coverage of downgrades in Portugal, France and Hungary. What they have not got a lot on is the contagion into eastern Europe. Poland’s currency is tanking as a result. Moreover, the halt of Austrian loans into central Europe is creating a credit crunch there which will negatively affect the economy irrespective of the macro fundamentals (which are poor due to real economy effects out of Euroland). Slovenia, a former model country in the east, is the other major target of contagion.

Euro-Schuldenkrise: Anleger fliehen aus polnischem Zloty – Rohstoffe + Devisen – Finanzen – Handelsblatt
“The Euro debt crisis has put the Polish Zloty under pressure. Blame is apparently on currency speculation. Poland fears crossing the permissible indebtedness mark of 55 percent of GDP.”

Source: creditwritedowns.com/2011/11/foreign-news-eurobonds-and-contagion-to-p oland-and-slovenia.html
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 Nov 28, 11, 09:01    #265
Wedle:
has put the Polish Zloty under pressure


If the zloty does tank there could be positive consequences for housing:

-foreigners will be more hesitent to sell their apartments, preferring to wait (as the price of apartments fall and the amount translated into their home currency also falls due to exchange)
-Poland might start to look attractive for foreign investment again (as in EURO, USD, GBP or whaterever the apartments will get cheaper combined with the fall in zloty prices)
-Polish people working abroad could get more zloty for the Polish savings, making housing less expensive
-people with Swiss Franc or other currency loans will continue to pay their loans off (they can't sell as they wouldn't have enough to pay off the loan)

Therefore a fall of the zloty could offer some support for housing prices if we believe the foreigners and Polish working abroad have such a large influence - personally I think these factors don't have as much influence as some would want us to believe.
cmsThreads: 6
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 Nov 28, 11, 11:21    #266
Er you are forgetting interest rates? These will need to be hiked to support the currency and that will far outweigh all the other effects.
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Edited by: Moderator  Nov 28, 11, 12:50    #267
pip:
i hope Poland doesn't take the Euro.


Which Euro? it looks like 8-10 core countries will setup a Financial Union (EU FU lol). that will be far stronger as it will exclude the PIIGS. This would be very attractive to Poland.



Germany, France examine radical push for eurozone integration


By Luke Baker and Julien Toyer

BRUSSELS | Sun Nov 27, 2011 10:59pm GMT

(Reuters) - Germany and France are exploring radical methods of securing deeper and more rapid fiscal integration among euro zone countries, aware that getting broad backing for the necessary treaty changes may not be possible, officials say.

Germany's original plan was to try to secure agreement among all 27 EU countries for a limited treaty change by the end of 2012, making it possible to impose much tighter budget controls over the 17 euro zone countries -- a way of shoring up the region's defences against the debt crisis.

But in meetings with EU leaders in recent weeks, it has become clear to both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy that it may not be possible to get all 27 countries on board, EU sources say.

Even if that were possible, it could take a year or more to secure the changes while market attacks on Italy, Spain and now France suggest bold measures are needed within weeks.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/27/uk-eurozone-crisis-idUKTRE7AQ 0CJ20111127
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 Nov 28, 11, 17:37    #268
cms:
Er you are forgetting interest rates


You're right - but most of what is written in this thread is nonsense - so I don't try too hard :-)

Reality today most people with money don't really have safe options how to invest it - people without money are basically in trouble

I'm not sure how/if this will ever clean up - while we may not repeat what happened in Japan - it really is impossible knowing what to do - while I feel apartment prices will drop, I do feel better being diversified (owning property and multiple currency savings and shares)
cmsThreads: 6
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 Nov 28, 11, 18:56    #269
A sound strategy is 30 per cent each of cash/bonds, property and shares and leave 10 percent to invest in something high risk. Problem in uk, us, Ireland and now Poland is that people end up with much more than 50 percent tied up in their home. Taking equity out of your home was very rare until the late 80s.
milkyThreads: 10
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 Nov 28, 11, 21:39    #270
BRS:
if we believe the foreigners and Polish working abroad have such a large influence - personally I think these factors don't have as much influence as some would want us to believe.

you better believe it, what else could cause it....


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