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The current property boom in Poland is a bubble

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posts: 113

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Edited by: Qacer Aug 27, 07, 13:05 #91

<div class="quoting">Quoting: BubbaWoo

how much further do you think they will fall? </div>

Here's the latest article on CNN regarding the housing market in the US:
CNN

You may also check out the Greater Tampa Bay Realtor's website to get a sample of Florida's real estate market:

The FL market is one of the main markets hit by the sub-prime crash. I was keeping track of a few home prices and two homes on my list went down from $249,000 to $239,000 and $242,000 to $230,000 in a two month time span. Some inventory homes went down from $350,000 to $250,000. The foreclosure rates are also going up. Because of this, banks have tightened lending requirements and eliminated some of the fancy mortgage options like unconventional ARMs and interest only loans.

BubbaWooThreads: 46 Posts: 4,438 Joined: Sep 26, 06 ♂	Aug 27, 07, 13:12 #92
thanks for the info Qacer - fortunately the market im looking at is pretty much the only one that has risen in recent months... oh yes indeedy! just replied to your PM

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Aug 29, 07, 23:20 #93

Basically, the non-US financial institutions that were buying the sub-prime mortgages kept on buying and others in turn were attracted to the high initial returns (some lured by pure greed, no doubt, but having little idea of the riskiness of the venture).

However, the US economy is still pretty strong, unemployment is low, creditworthy borrowers can still get home loans at comparatively low rates (remember the Carter administration, anyone?), and in some areas home sales are now actually rising. Here in the Midwest, we had seen in the past year or so some folks sell their tiny California or Northeast homes on postage-stamp size lots for, say, $900K, then buy a home here with twice the sq. footage on about 20 acres on a lake in the Ozarks, and still have half the proceeds to play around with or invest! Now California homes are getting harder to sell, so we are not seeing so many out of state buyers for our high-end homes.

Flying into Gdansk last week, I saw tons of building going on in subdivisions - large homes on big lots. However, Bubbawoo is "right on the money" in buying older properties and refurbishing them either for resale or rental. I am seeing formerly rundown parts of town here in Missouri becoming revitalized by such developers, with gang members moving out as young families move in. 85% of the real estate transactions here are for properties listed at $150,000 or less. 4 years ago, I bought a 600sqft one bedroom house for $30,000, gutted it, rewired it, etc. and could now get double if I put it on the market. Our waterfront acre on the Gulf of Mexico we bought 10 years ago for $18K. Last year a guy bought his acre (not on the water) for $750K.

So either buy it and sit on it till it appreciates, or buy run-down properties and use your own sweat equity to help them appreciate. The old mantra is still true, though - "Location, location, location", and I have to say that the Tri-Cities is one of the nicest locations I have seen in a while! I'll be back, but first I'll do my research and get my team together.

I'm new to this forum, but I do appreciate it when members refrain from personal attacks.

Giles

Sep 12, 07, 07:59 #94

Hmm... well i don't know much about anything, however. i do know that the two properties i've brought and paid for have in three years or so made decent returns. The little flat i brought last year for 77,000 zl is now valued at 189,000 zl. So i reckon thats good.
Finally i know bubba better than most on this forum since and he does know what he is doing. And yes Lef is very ignorant.

A brief aside, the other week i refused 6 australians entry to my nightclub in London, when the asked me why, i replied "because you are Australian". Aussie arrogance especially those in london, is unbelievable. They are aggressive, arrogant rude and often violent. I'm pleased to say i have had the pleasure of punching and stamping on many many Aussie heads. (New Zealanders however, are a completely different bunch and are generally polite and decent people.)

To all you decent Australians out there I apologies for my rantings, but the majority of your country men are like chavvy Brits. Kunts

davidpeakeThreads: 18 Posts: 515 Joined: Nov 7, 06 ♂	Sep 12, 07, 08:13 #95
Quoting: Giles To all you decent Australians out there I apologies for my rantings, but the majority of your country men are like chavvy Brits. Kunts What a load of ******** Giles

Spook

Sep 12, 07, 08:24 #96

There are a lot of very visable Aussies all over London who tend to behave like the worst of British stag parties every time they go out - they are loud, aggressive, rude and arrogant as Giles suggests... furthermore, they tend to get most uppity when decent British folk, like myself, point out that Australians are decended from British cast-offs and that many of them have a strange penchant for beastiality, as recorded for prosperity in the well known ditty by Rolf Harris

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Sep 12, 07, 08:28 #97

Quoting: Spook

point out that Australians are decended from British cast-offs

Many, thats not a overly true statement, more are actually from families that decided to move of their own free will.

But yes i agree some of us Australians do probably act correctly while away from home, but having travelled the world, i can say that you should not judge others until you see what your own country folk do while in other countries also.

Its not just aussies.

Spook	Sep 12, 07, 08:35 #98
David Im winding you up :-) Im blessed with both Australian and British nationality so feel qualified to comment on both

lietning921Threads: - Posts: 2 Joined: Apr 19, 07 ♂	Sep 12, 07, 17:00 #99
yes, once they begin with the easy credit...watch out the house will come tumbleing down....

hullo

Sep 12, 07, 21:17 #100

Quoting: Giles

To all you decent Australians out there I apologies for my rantings, but the majority of your country men are like chavvy Brits. Kunts

Stop talking about yourself in such a bad way, that reminds me your the one who was returning to Poland! Didn't work out, I thought so. Lol.
I'm glad you and the other Englishman have both left Poland, good riddance.
No decent Polish girl would be associated with you..

aussie

Sep 16, 07, 18:20 #101

Quoting: Giles

A brief aside, the other week i refused 6 australians entry to my nightclub in London, when the asked me why, i replied "because you are Australian". Aussie arrogance especially those in london, is unbelievable. They are aggressive, arrogant rude and often violent. I'm pleased to say i have had the pleasure of punching and stamping on many many Aussie heads. (New Zealanders however, are a completely different bunch and are generally polite and decent people.)

To all you decent Australians out there I apologies for my rantings, but the majority of your country men are like chavvy Brits. Kunts

Giles we are a group of true blue aussies, we have been known to enjoy a beer or two, we are heading to London for Christmas, would love to catch and discuss these comments with you, (we promise to leave out black belts at home)

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jul 7, 10, 19:43 #102
Its amazing how little discussion there is on this forum in relation to the massive property bubble in Poland..

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Jul 7, 10, 20:01 #103
Spook: get most uppity when decent British folk, like myself, point out that Australians are decended from British cast-offs and that many of them have a strange penchant for beastiality way to deal with someone who just spent 20 hours on the plane! They might be rowdy, but Spook is just plain dumb. er... what bubble?

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jul 7, 10, 20:32 #104
Its amazing how little discussion there is on this forum in relation to the massive property bubble in Poland..

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Edited by: milky Jul 7, 10, 20:55 #105
http://www.buyinghousepoland.co.uk/polish-passports-visas.htm I wonder why the"Discussion" button has not worked on the above for several months now. I remember seen things like this before on Irish real-estate websites before the pop..

wildroverThreads: 180 Posts: 8,188 Joined: Jun 7, 07 ♂	Jul 7, 10, 21:02 #106
milky: Its amazing how little discussion there is on this forum in relation to the massive property bubble in Poland.. Maybe nobody gives a stuff about it...?

alexw68

Jul 7, 10, 21:09 #107

wildrover:

Maybe nobody gives a stuff about it...?

That, and the big discrepancy between supply and demand mean it's not actually a bubble per se. Granted, there were a lot of developers who by 2008 were beginning to take the **** on a grand scale, but it wasn't anything like as systemic as what was going down in the US and the UK to a lesser extent with subprime.

Current prices may not reflect your conception of what constitutes fair value. That, however, has probably been true of the British property market for 15 years, not just the last 2 or 3.

So - supply demand inequality - yes: bubble, no.

A

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Jul 7, 10, 21:11 #108

well according (wikapedia)to this they must
Over the span of years 2002-2008 real estate prices in Poland have increased drastically. Between June 2006 and June 2007 alone the average price of a square metre in Warsaw rose from 6,683 PLN (1,636 EUR) to 9,540 PLN (2,519 EUR) (over 50% rise in euro terms).[1]

According to a major Polish newspaper, Gazeta Wyborcza, the average monthly salary in Warsaw buys 0.26 m2, or in Kraków 0.22 m2.[2]

Same sources give rental profitability at 4% yearly. This is lower than interest rates on bank deposits (5% in Polbank etc.).[2]

In early 2007 the Polish property market began to show early signs of a property bubble; these included:

* banks increasing loan periods from 30 to 50 years to extend credit limits;
* over 1 million families already in debt, and roughly 300,000 more going in debt every year;

wildroverThreads: 180 Posts: 8,188 Joined: Jun 7, 07 ♂	Jul 7, 10, 21:17 #109
Anybody want to buy my house...?

alexw68

Jul 7, 10, 21:18 #110

milky:

Same sources give rental profitability at 4% yearly. This is lower than interest rates on bank deposits (5% in Polbank etc.).[2]

Rental profitability doesn't include the capital value of the asset. It also assumes that the majority of the rental income (the other 96%) goes towards paying off the loan - a benefit to the property holder in and of itself.

There is much more stock out there for rent than before: so, if you limit your thesis to 'there's a buy-to-let bubble', you begin to have a point with respect to those investors - and only those investors - who imagine they'll get a rental income while still paying a mortgage off on a property.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jul 7, 10, 21:38 #111
If property triples or doubles in price over a short period of 3 yrs..Its a bubble...In Ireland the prices and wages tripled and it is now world famous world champion bubble burster. Wages are as sh1t as ever inPoland and property has gone through the roof so its a bubble. Simple fact

wildroverThreads: 180 Posts: 8,188 Joined: Jun 7, 07 ♂	Jul 7, 10, 22:34 #112
its not eactly a bubble though...more like a bit of froth , but more foamy..... i think..?

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Jul 16, 10, 12:44 #113

milky:

http://www.buyinghousepoland.co.uk/polish-passports-visas.htm

I wonder why the"Discussion" button has not worked on the above for several months now.
I remember seen things like this before on Irish real-estate websites before the pop..

Brendan Burgess, Founder, Ask About Money was on on RTE Pat Kenny Show 14th July
This guy(hypocrite) was on the radio on wed advising people on how to handle their major money problems in such hard times. He has just wrote a book(how to handle your money kind of thing lol) and people were ringing in, mainly all those people in the sh1t because they bought property during the bubble and now they cant pay and have not paid in months ets etc..
At the end of the show this "Guru" got a text from a viewer accusing him of encouraging the property bubble by closing down the debate on property prices on the askaboutmoney, website.
Burgess(who had huge audience) at the time of the bubble very very strongly encouraged people to join the property ladder before it got too expensive to get on. Now he has turned around to help people for money to fix what he helped create.
Anyway his answer to the critical text was basically, that the debate at the time was getting out of hand and a lot of people were using "bad language" so he closed down the debate.. Looks like we have these guys in Poland as well eh

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