House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again?

andystar

Mar 6, 09, 01:28 #91

Polish real estate prices are not immune to what is happening in the rest of the world. Too many in Poland took out loans denominated in Swiss francs, and the falling zloty is killing them.

I live in Sarasota Florida where median prices have fallen 41% since Feb 2008. That kind of drop can easily occur in Poland. If you're shopping for a HOME, and not just an investment, you can find sellers desperate to take lowball offers anywhere in the world these days.......from Dubai to Krakow to Dublin.

JAK

Mar 6, 09, 02:58 #92

Must be great in the US - I know people who live in Atlanta and even before the crash I though property was pretty good value. In the case of the hot spots in Poland e.g. Krakow no one in their right mind will want to buy until there is confidence that the market has roughly bottomed out. That may not even be this year. It will be interesting to hear in the future how people look back on the speculative madness that has been perpetrated in Poland. I do feel that in the future there will not be the same level of naievety among property investors and this will mean that the speculator "establishment" will not be able to make the merry hell that it has to date.

polandabroad

Mar 6, 09, 06:07 #93

6 months ago the dollar:zloty exchange rate was 2.0, now it's 3.7-3.8. When you consider real estate in Poland has decreased 20% and add the appreciation of the dollar in the last six months, you are getting properties at about 55-60% discounts from six months ago.

I guess if the eastern european economies do implode, 70-80% discounts are possible by the end of the year with the currency depreciation buying in dollars or euros.

Flemming43

Mar 6, 09, 09:31 #94

Question about whether prices will drop further is interesting for me, since I'm about to buy an apartement in Poland.
I'm from Denmark.

I'm not an expert, but I beleive prices will drop further in coming months. 25% of polish apartemets/houses are financed in swiss franc. In Ukraine I think it is 60% and in some baltic countries up to 85%!!

Now everybody talk about the potential risk of a "swiss collaps", when owners of house in these countries, have to sell out (due to dropping value of PLN and financial crise).

♂

Mar 6, 09, 09:55 #95

It should be stressed that most 'house' price analyses for Poland and other countries in Europe are actually for 'flats' and not houses per se. It is a grave error to bundle the drop in 'flat' prices with that of private 'house' prices. Keep in mind, as I have often mentioned numerous times on Polish Forums, land exceeding 1 hectare has not been allowed for sale to foreigners without permission from the Polish government. That law will end in the year 2016. This pertains to private houses on such land, and small farms. This is where the real estate market in Poland still thrives and has the most potential. I can attest to that since I own a large small farm exceeding 7 hectares, with a new home, barn, two farm buildings, arable land and forests, well with spring water, plumbing, and electricity. Such property represents true ownership, rather than a cramped flat in a large concrete apartment building stuffed with hundred's of other families.

♂

Mar 6, 09, 12:33 #96

JAK:

I suppose many Irish speculators have unwittingly made an involuntary one way contribution to the Polish economy. To look at the bravado and swaggering in the posts from a year ago.. my word.

Give quotes or examples of this bravado and swaggering.
You sound bitter.

JAK:

There was plenty of smugness a year ago

Again give some evidence.

JAK:

I say if you can give it out then you can take it as well.

What are you talking about?, do i care.

JAK:

where next for Irish speculative voyaging - China? In that case we can look forward to a boom and bust scenario there as well.

Wow, you really are a bitter little person.

BubbaWooThreads: 46 Posts: 4,438 Joined: Sep 26, 06 ♂	Mar 6, 09, 13:32 #97
SeanBM: You sound bitter. and resentful what happened jak - did you miss out on something you thought was yours...?

♂

Mar 6, 09, 17:12 #98

scorpio:

Keep in mind, as I have often mentioned numerous times on Polish Forums, land exceeding 1 hectare has not been allowed for sale to foreigners without permission from the Polish government. That law will end in the year 2016. This pertains to private houses on such land, and small farms.

This is quite interesting. I hadn’t heard this before, not even in the thread about foreigners buying Polish properties.

Wroclaw Boy	Mar 6, 09, 17:17 #99
Randal: That law will end in the year 2016. That date is for ever changing

♂

Edited by: scorpio Mar 6, 09, 18:36 #100

Randal:

This is quite interesting. I hadn’t heard this before, not even in the thread about foreigners buying Polish properties.

It is true. Foreigners are allowed to buy a flat without any permission, and as many as they wish. They can also buy a private home on a parcel of land less than 1 hectare also without permission, although, permission may be necessary under certain circumstances. Anything exceeding 1 hectare needs permission without a doubt until the year 2016. This mostly has to do with the status of being a 'farmer' and the special privileges they have when it comes to insurance, pension, and taxes.

To me it is clearly a hidden market in Poland that most foreigners don't pay attention to. Also, all of the property price reports focus only on flats, and not the houses on larger parcels of land. They tend to group everything into 'property' or 'houses', which isn't accurate at all. It is true that there are currently an abundance of flats on the market for resale. Small farms are much more scarce, although there are some still to be found at reasonable prices.

Wroclaw Boy:

That date is for ever changing

It really is. I remember at one time the date was 2012, and then got bumped up to 2016. I think Poland is trying to keep the date in sync with when Germany allows Poles to work in their country legally.

RandalThreads: 1 Posts: 758 Joined: Feb 14, 09 ♂	Edited by: Randal Mar 6, 09, 18:43 #101
scorpio: It is true. I like it. During the discussions about foreigners buying up Poland I was hoping to see some sort of government protections in place. But no one mentioned this provision. A little protectionist nationalism is good, particularly during difficult times. A hectare is like an acre?

scorpioThreads: 26 Posts: 196 Joined: Nov 15, 07 ♂	Mar 6, 09, 19:38 #102
Randal: A little protectionist nationalism is good, particularly during difficult times. A hectare is like an acre? Agreed, I think this provision is a good one. Another theory behind this was to give some time for land prices in Poland to reach a near equilibrium with Western European countries. 1 hectare = 2.471 acres

RandalThreads: 1 Posts: 758 Joined: Feb 14, 09 ♂	Mar 6, 09, 19:52 #103
Thanks. That is all very interesting. Hey, you’re the guy that’s gonna open the outdoor/ off road adventure camp, right? How were you able to buy your property if you’re not Polish? Your wife?

♂

Mar 6, 09, 20:00 #104

Randal:

Thanks. That is all very interesting.

You're very welcome.

Randal:

Hey, you’re the guy that’s gonna open the outdoor/ off road adventure camp, right?

No, that was probably Wildrover. I'm more into Agro / Eco Tourism, and hope to complete and open a pub in my barn along with activities in the other half of the building, like ping pong, basketball, and even dances every once in a while.

Randal:

How were you able to buy your property if you’re not Polish? Your wife?

I was able to buy my property in Poland because my mother was born and raised in Poland and later went to the USA. I was born in the USA, but now I hold dual citizenship (USA and Poland). Poland has a great law which allows non-Polish born individuals to become a Polish citizen if one of your parents or even grandparents were born in Poland. If this is the case, in Poland's eyes, you are a native Pole. So, I was able to purchase as much land as I wanted, unrestricted.

RandalThreads: 1 Posts: 758 Joined: Feb 14, 09 ♂	Mar 6, 09, 20:26 #105
scorpio: Agro / Eco Tourism Cool. Like Dwight! What else? Bed & breakfast? Weddings? Corn maze? Horse riding? Hay rides? Vineyard? Haunted barn at Halloween? If I ever get over to Poland I’ll stop by for a beer and the Saturday night barn dance! What part of P-Land?

JAK	Mar 6, 09, 20:36 #106
What a great idea - good luck!

RandalThreads: 1 Posts: 758 Joined: Feb 14, 09 ♂	Mar 6, 09, 20:43 #107
Why don't you sign up and become a member, JAK?

Guest

Mar 6, 09, 20:48 #108

scorpio:

This is where the real estate market in Poland still thrives and has the most potential. I can attest to that since I own a large small farm exceeding 7 hectares, with a new home, barn, two farm buildings, arable land and forests, well with spring water, plumbing, and electricity. Such property represents true ownership,

scorpio, lol, are you trying to edge people up for the next Polish boom and thus make yourself rich, forget it and don't delude yourself, stop trying to suck in people to loose more money in the real estate market. Unless Poland is different, in the States and elsewhere a country property is just a country property and is priced accordingly, If property prices increase it will do so in city locations. The country is where the natives live, take a drive to a country town and see for yourself.

JAK	Mar 6, 09, 21:15 #109
Many thanks for that - good idea - I do plan to buy - for my family use - and I will no doubt find some tips from the good people here :-)

♂

Edited by: scorpio Mar 6, 09, 21:42 #110

Randal:

Cool. Like Dwight! What else? Bed & breakfast? Weddings? Corn maze? Horse riding? Hay rides? Vineyard? Haunted barn at Halloween?
If I ever get over to Poland I’ll stop by for a beer and the Saturday night barn dance!
What part of P-Land?

B&B, maybe horse riding and hay rides in the future. You are welcome to visit anytime. I'm about 30 km south of Tarnów in the mountains.

Guest:

scorpio, lol, are you trying to edge people up for the next Polish boom and thus make yourself rich, forget it and don't delude yourself, stop trying to suck in people to loose more money in the real estate market

I'm quite comfortable financially already, so there is no reason to 'suck' people into doing anything. The fact is, parcels of land over 1 hectare haven't been exposed properly to any form of supply and demand 'Europe-wide', so prices haven't been determined according to true market value yet, which makes land / forest / meadows underpriced. It's no delusion.

You sound very bitter "Guest". Why hide behind a guest nick?

JAK

Mar 8, 09, 04:15 #111

Extract from Bank Zachodni Bulletin "Macroscope" Feb 2009, "Housing Market Update". December saw continuation of a fall in offered flat prices in Poland’s major cities. The exception was Poznań where a slight correction of the significant fall in two previous months took place. Looking at annual price change in December, the Warsaw market remains the relatively strongest with a mere 2% price drop. The worst performers are still Poznań (-7%) and Krakow (-11%).
In the near term, the unfavourable relation between demand and supply (the number of dwellings completed and offer of flats bought earlier for speculative purposes is clearly higher than the number of active buyers) will lead to further fall in prices during 2009, which in our view will top 10% on average in the whole country.

♂

Mar 8, 09, 04:31 #112

Guest:

Unless Poland is different, in the States and elsewhere a country property is just a country property and is priced accordingly, If property prices increase it will do so in city locations. The country is where the natives live, take a drive to a country town and see for yourself.

let me guess, youre an american with no experience of realestate, or life for that matter, anywhwere else in the world...

♂

Mar 9, 09, 12:30 #113

JAK:

December saw continuation of a fall in offered flat prices in Poland’s major cities...In the near term, the unfavourable relation between demand and supply (the number of dwellings completed and offer of flats bought earlier for speculative purposes is clearly higher than the number of active buyers) will lead to further fall in prices during 2009

Your prognosis is fair and accurate, because you specify a component of the real estate market ("flats") instead of lumping the housing category into one. That's what more property analysts should be doing. They should be more specific as there are obviously various components comprising real estate.

Recently in my village, there was an old wooden home in inhabitable shape (no other farm buildings except for an outhouse) for sale down the mountain from me, near a stream and paved road. It sits on only 0.40 hectares of arable land with no forest and has electric and well water. A nearby local Polish family just purchased it for 120,000 zloty. In itself, this amount of land would not qualify someone to become a farmer. However, this particular family already owns over 3 hectares elsewhere in the village, so they can live there and maintain their farmer status. Overall, a good investment as opposed to dropping money on a flat.

JucheThreads: 13 Posts: 356 Joined: Feb 17, 09 ♂	Mar 9, 09, 12:38 #114
BubbaWoo: The country is where the natives live, take a drive to a country town and see for yourself. i was wondering why no natives anywhere in Warsaw...

Wroclaw Boy	Mar 9, 09, 12:42 #115
scorpio: Overall, a good investment as opposed to dropping money on a flat. Houses and land seem to be holding their prices fairly stable, i noticed houses in some of big the cities are actually increasing in price due to the over supply of flats and apartments.

SeanusThreads: 22 Posts: 30,160 Joined: Dec 25, 07 ♂	Mar 9, 09, 13:02 #116
It's a good time to buy in Gliwice. Most property prices are dropping. Strike while the iron is hot I say.

BubbaWooThreads: 46 Posts: 4,438 Joined: Sep 26, 06 ♂	Mar 9, 09, 13:05 #117
Juche: BubbaWoo: The country is where the natives live, take a drive to a country town and see for yourself. i was wondering why no natives anywhere in Warsaw... misquote do be careful dear fellow, it tends to cause the most unnecessary offence

♂

Edited by: scorpio Mar 9, 09, 13:07 #118

Wroclaw Boy:

Houses and land seem to be holding their prices fairly stable

Agreed, I notice that as well. There also seems to be an influx of people now longing to own their own house on a piece of land where they can breath a bit.

I'll give you some examples of the recent activity in my village. A Spaniard who has a Polish wife just recently purchased a large brick home here near the parish church. They have around 1/3 hectare of land surrounding their home and recently put in a new roof. We now have about 8 families from the Śląsk area that have bought wooden homes and farms here. One Pole from Tarnów bought a farm and now produces home made wine and sells rabbits. Another Pole from Tarnów bought vacant, unused farm land on top of the highest mountain here and opened up a very successful ski area. It's not large like Krynica, but people still swarm in to go skiing. Two villages away from me, the number of people from Śląsk is even higher. In an adjacent village, a German (along with his Polish wife) bought a charming farm exceeding 3 hectares and great views, before I moved into the area. He got a great price and that was in the year 2000. The family that sold it to him seems to be regretting the sale because they know they could have gotten over 15 times more for the same farm today. This is an unfortunate consequence for those locals who sold in the early 2000's (or even before that). Not many people really anticipated how much of a demand there would be for the simple rural life.

♂

Mar 9, 09, 13:13 #119

scorpio:

There also seems to be an influx of people now longing to own their own house on a piece of land where they can breath a bit.

this is inevitable and hardly suprising

but i remember just a few years ago saying to friends who wanted to buy in the 3M that they would be so much better off looking just a little way out of the city - more for your money, fresh air, garden for the kids and dog, close to shops etc on the obwodnice, and only a short drive to Sopot, Gdansk or Gdynia

but would they listen...?

whatever

except for my business partner who took my advice, bought a good sized plot in rebiechowo for a bargain price, built a beautiful house and is now enjoying a much better life

Wroclaw Boy	Mar 9, 09, 14:31 #120
scorpio: It really is. I remember at one time the date was 2012, and then got bumped up to 2016. I think Poland is trying to keep the date in sync with when Germany allows Poles to work in their country legally. If i remember rightly originally it was supposed to be 5 years after Polands EU accession. That'd be May this year.

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