House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again?

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Mar 9, 09, 16:14 #121

scorpio:

I'll give you some examples of the recent activity in my village. A Spaniard who has a Polish wife just recently purchased a large brick home here near the parish church. They have around 1/3 hectare of land surrounding their home and recently put in a new roof. We now have about 8 families from the Śląsk area that have bought wooden homes and farms here. One Pole from Tarnów bought a farm and now produces home made wine and sells rabbits. Another Pole from Tarnów bought vacant, unused farm land on top of the highest mountain here and opened up a very successful ski area. It's not large like Krynica, but people still swarm in to go skiing. Two villages away from me, the number of people from Śląsk is even higher. In an adjacent village, a German (along with his Polish wife) bought a charming farm exceeding 3 hectares and great views, before I moved into the area. He got a great price and that was in the year 2000. The family that sold it to him seems to be regretting the sale because they know they could have gotten over 15 times more for the same farm today. This is an unfortunate consequence for those locals who sold in the early 2000's (or even before that). Not many people really anticipated how much of a demand there would be for the simple rural life.

You seem to know a great deal about the local transactions, Scorpio. Are you involved in local planning or tourist board? Are you and your friends trying to turn southern Poland into a rural tourist destination? Maybe this would require its own thread?

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Mar 9, 09, 16:36 #122

Randal:

You seem to know a great deal about the local transactions, Scorpio. Are you involved in local planning or tourist board? Are you and your friends trying to turn southern Poland into a rural tourist destination? Maybe this would require its own thread?

When living in a village and area with such a small population, how can you not know what is going on around you? Everyone pretty much knows about everyone else's business here. One doesn't even have to buy a local newspaper...just talk to your neighbors. This is very typical.

I'm not involved in any local planning or tourist board. I came here over 6 years ago by myself as a foreigner and built a new home. My nearest relatives are about 70 km north of me. This has been my primary residence ever since then. It really is beautiful. I'm not promoting this area in any "organized" way, however, I don't mind when tourists do visit and stay with me. It's also good to inform others who seek a similar lifestyle what's it's like here. I would also welcome opinions from others who have a rural lifestyle in Poland. This would provide a more balanced view on living conditions and the real estate market in a rural setting.

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Edited by: Randal Mar 9, 09, 16:47 #123

scorpio:

I'm not promoting this area in any "organized" way

Well, so far your have a vineyard and a ski area and your B&B&bar… (and whatever else you may have mentioned that I have forgotten). Seems to me you should all organize together and promote your little region to international tourists. Particularly now with Poland being in the EU and Western tourists heading that way.

scorpio:

I don't mind when tourists do visit and stay with me.

Are you presently up and running, prepared to accept guests? I mean, suppose a US tourist visiting Poland was interested in a place to stay, a base to return to while touring P-Land.

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Mar 9, 09, 16:56 #124

Randal:

Are you presently up and running? I mean, suppose a US tourist visiting Poland was interested in a place to stay, a base to return to while touring P-Land.

Yes, my house is ready for guests in almost every respect. It beats staying in a hotel because you get to mingle with the locals and really see Poland and experience Polish culture, take rides in horse drawn wagons in the mountains, have campfires, pick mushrooms, berries, fruits, take walks in the forest trails, and even be part of the local gossip. :-) You get to help the owner split wood! Not only that, but there is more freedom of movement by staying here and the price is much lower than any hotel or motel. All facilities are available for use (kitchen and living room), and free unlimited internet. It's also a great base to visit Kraków (by bus for about 12 zloty each way or train for slightly higher amount - train station in the next village), Tarnów, Nowy Sącz, Biecz, etc. I don't mean this to be an advertisement, but you did ask.

RandalThreads: 1 Posts: 758 Joined: Feb 14, 09 ♂	Mar 9, 09, 17:04 #125
scorpio: You get to help the owner split wood! Hey! This doesn't sound like vacation! Oh, does one also get to help muck out the horse stalls? Lol... How long of a train ride to Kraków?

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Mar 9, 09, 17:56 #126

Randal:

This doesn't sound like vacation!

It's all part of the experience here.

Randal:

Oh, does one also get to help muck out the horse stalls?

Sure, my neighbors would be more than glad for you to shovel manure out of their stable 2 times per day. You might even get a meal out of it!

Randal:

How long of a train ride to Kraków?

The train ride takes longer than the bus and is more expensive. About 3 hours. The bus ride is more pleasant, with views via rolling hils and sleepy towns, and takes only 2 hours.

RandalThreads: 1 Posts: 758 Joined: Feb 14, 09 ♂	Mar 9, 09, 18:32 #127
You do make it sound quite lovely. If I get over there I'll have to look you up. Do you have a website?

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Mar 10, 09, 01:08 #128

SeanBM:

There was another poster who claimed equally that the "Irish" were the worst but he has not posted since.
I wonder if there is a connection with our new guest?.

If thats me your referring too, here I am, lets put the nasties behind us and move on. Been away for a while and had no access to a computor.

Let me just say I was not referring to individual investors, just the corporate ones, anyway.. Look I hope people make a good return with property investments providing it is fair and honest. I've pointed out that there are a lot of wild cards when investing in real estate in Poland, one which has surfaced is the falling zlote, changes in exchange rate of foreign currency against loans are just a few. One point which is crucial (and you have made this point) is that wages must increase before real estate prices increase.
The idea of buying cheap country property sounds great and is indeed very cheap, but how many people in the country would be in the market to buy your property, Poles tend to purchase a block of land and build themselves.
More important access to hospitals, transport, and employment, let alone cost of heating and electricity. Poles have traditionally lived in flats/apartments and buying a detached house is somewhat new, it has its positives and negatives.
Its cheaper to buy a country property in the States than getting involved in red tape and uncertainty.
Undoubtedly I will get quick responses from property investors telling me the opposite hmm

SeanBMThreads: 41 Posts: 8,727 Joined: Mar 10, 08 ♂	Mar 10, 09, 01:19 #129
Maybe yourself and JAK know something I don't but why is it you both pointed the finger at Irish developers/inverters, corporate or otherwise?, being involved in any suspicious or anything but fair and honest dealings? I have heard no scandals and I keep my ear to the ground.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08 ♂	Mar 10, 09, 01:35 #130
SeanBM settle down, I don't think Poles like foreign property developers making mega dollars the same as you don't like seeing CEO's making tens of million dollars a year in income, thats the way it is old boy, lump it or leave it. I think the Irish developers are licking there wounds at the moment!!

SeanBMThreads: 41 Posts: 8,727 Joined: Mar 10, 08 ♂	Mar 10, 09, 01:42 #131
Why do you talk about Irish?.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08 ♂	Mar 11, 09, 05:09 #132
SeanBM: Why do you talk about Irish?. Have to talk about somebody!... No heard a lot about the Irish firms in Krakow, no doubt it may also have been a reference to the English companies. Sorry, I did not want to be personal, I hope you enjoy being amonst the polish people, thats great.

agomulaThreads: - Posts: 5 Joined: Mar 11, 09 ♂	Mar 11, 09, 12:17 #133
I see a lot od non residents struggling to repay their mortgages at the current exchange rate of the swiss franc at the moment. More and more people are switching to Euro nowadays

Guest

Mar 11, 09, 15:00 #134

agomula:

I see a lot od non residents struggling to repay their mortgages at the current exchange rate of the swiss franc at the moment. More and more people are switching to Euro nowadays

I borrowed in CHF and repay in PLN. My home currency is EURO. In fx terms my repayments have only increased by 10%. This is offset against the drop in CHF 3 month libor rate. So, as a non resident I don't see any real change in what I was repaying 12 months ago. As CHF increased against PLN, so did the EURO. Can't say the same for GBP though.

11 March 2009 chf to pln 3.107
11 March 2008 chf to pln 2.23

11 March 2009 eur to pln 4.61
11 March 2008 eur to pln 3.53

Denski

Mar 14, 09, 23:38 #135

Well I have to say Gents I called the Euro to the Zloty at 1 to 5 back in Dec 2008. Now I stick to my guns and tell you the best time to buy real estate in Poland will be Q2 2010. As for Scorpio and his talk about Agro farms this could be your year as most Poles will be staying in Poland for vacation. Just like to add one point to your quote about buying land and that is if you buy more than 1.5 H you do not to change the status of the land to build. Furthermore anyone considering buying a farm in Poland that is not polish and does not have a Polish wife/husband forget it especially if you have children. The last thing you want is your chuild going to a local Polish school because ther will be no international schools.

Good luck for 2009.

Denski	Mar 14, 09, 23:49 #136
Bolek, you know as well as any person that has been around in Poland for a while that the British and the Irish developers have been shafted big time by the polish land resellers. A number of polish developers have just been selling land to the Irish British and Spanish for the last two years. A classic example is look at how Quinlan Golab was shafted on Kosykowa.

Denski

Mar 15, 09, 00:15 #137

scorpio:

Your prognosis is fair and accurate, because you specify a component of the real estate market ("flats") instead of lumping the housing category into one. That's what more property analysts should be doing. They should be more specific as there are obviously various components comprising real estate.

Scorpio I respect the lifestyle you wish to lead and I am sure you have a more relaxed day than I do living in another small town Warszawa. But lets level with each other here. We (4 people) bought around 2.4 H of land in Mazury next to a clear water lake, no speed boats allowed only sailing boats, windsufing, fishing and diving. Fantastic spot. We do not expect to make money on it we will develop it and build 6 dworek style houses plus tennis court and recreational area and rent them out. If we break even we will be satisfied and then maybe hope to sell it on in15/20 years. Its a dream it is romantic we paid 12.50 plz per sq mtr in 2004. The next plot ( 4,000 squ mtr) is available today at 80plz per sq mtr but until the owner sells our land is worth 12.50 plz.per squ mtr.

Denski

Mar 15, 09, 00:20 #138

Guest:

I borrowed in CHF and repay in PLN. My home currency is EURO. In fx terms my repayments have only increased by 10%. This is offset against the drop in CHF 3 month libor rate. So, as a non resident I don't see any real change in what I was repaying 12 months ago. As CHF increased against PLN, so did the EURO. Can't say the same for GBP though.

11 March 2009 chf to pln 3.107
11 March 2008 chf to pln 2.23

11 March 2009 eur to pln 4.61
11 March 2008 eur to pln 3.53

You should have waited two more days before you posted this. The SNB made your post irrelevant.

ragtime27Threads: 1 Posts: 245 Joined: Feb 20, 09 ♂	Mar 15, 09, 03:18 #139
Denski: The next plot ( 4,000 squ mtr) is available today at 80plz per sq I would kindly like to ask for your input regarding the issue of this thread. http://www.polishforums.com/urgent_advice_needed_building_land-20_3253 8_0.html Many thanks

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Mar 15, 09, 22:21 #140

Denski:

A number of polish developers have just been selling land to the Irish British and Spanish for the last two years. A classic example is look at how Quinlan Golab was shafted on Kosykowa.

Its the old greed story, you dangle a carrot at somebody and hope he bites. The smart ones who have invested in the property market have cashed in years ago and made a handsome return. One has to understand that the current financial crisis will be around for a long time and Poland will not be exempt.. it has fared well to date due to tight money lending. I don't know about the foreign banks in Poland.
Those people currently locked into off the plan deals with be most effected, some of these companies will go under and like in Spain these buildings will be like elephants.
The worst is yet to come.

Denski

Mar 15, 09, 23:48 #141

RE:Ragtime27

Firstly, I do not know anything about the prices of Land in or around Torun. Furthermore it is very difficult as an outsider to establish the real price of anything in Poland when dealing through an agent or being located outside of Poland.

Most importantly what is the status of the land is it building ( I doubt) is it recreation ( meaning for a summer house only) or is it Rolna ( green feilds no building allowed). If you are lucky and it is Building land, check the percentage that can be built. For example 10%. But here comes the Twist in Poland your 4,000 square mtr plot may be a combination of all of the above or any two or just one. The easy way is to check the nieghbouring plots If they have brick built structure on them, then it is likely you will be allowed to buld the same unless you are being sold a nature reserve or protected area. If the nieghbouring plots have wooden structures on them it is likely that it is recreation/summer house only. If there is not a buliding in sight. Start your search again.

Regarding the price, 80plz per sq mtr is not expensive for building land with a river view but if its Recreation it should be about 20-40 Plz, if its rolna it should be in the region of 10-25 plz.

There are two sites you can check to get an indication of price find below.

trader.pl
domiporta.pl

Whatever prices you see quoted take off 20-25% and you will have a gauge for current prices.

Hope this helps.

Good luck.

Denski

Mar 15, 09, 23:59 #142

bolek:

it has fared well to date due to tight money lending. I don't know about the foreign banks in Poland.
Those people currently locked into off the plan deals with be most effected, some of these companies will go under and like in Spain these buildings will be like elephants.
The worst is yet to come.

I agree with you the worst is yet to come and it is my opinion that the recent action by the SNB was to try and avoid a meltdown as Switzerland is heavily exposed to Central and Eastern Europe. The question we have to ask ourselves are the prices going back to 2004 levels or lower. The Eur/Plz is currently at 2003/2004 levels and with the banks now requiring a 30% deposit in Poland it makes it difficult for first time buyers. As I have mentioned earlier in the posts I see Q2 2010 as a good time to start making moves.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08 ♂	Mar 16, 09, 00:40 #143
The interesting thing to consider is that are you better off buying properties in the UK, Ireland and US once they reach rock bottom, lets face it property prices in Poland are still very high, I don't mean the ones in the country.

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Mar 16, 09, 00:43 #144

bolek:

The interesting thing to consider is that are you better off buying properties in the UK, Ireland and US once they reach rock bottom, lets face it property prices in Poland are still very high, I don't mean the ones in the country.

Well thats about to change, in Krakow sellers are shitting themselves at the mo. Uncertain futures, though with the pound gaining strength against the PLN, maybe they might keep.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08 ♂	Mar 16, 09, 00:47 #145
It would be interesting to find out what the developers are saying!

dtaylorThreads: 15 Posts: 992 Joined: Sep 15, 07 ♂	Mar 16, 09, 00:51 #146
Well in the block ive just moved into, well 3 months ago, about 3/4's of the flats are still empty. Not that im complaining about living somewhere that i can play my music loud all day and night. Though it shows how little people are in the buying market.

bolekThreads: 10 Posts: 369 Joined: Sep 13, 08 ♂	Mar 16, 09, 00:58 #147
I know a few people who purchased "investment" properties, they are unable to sell, and in the polish tradition not prepared to lower the prices. The pick of the pick of finding a wealthy overseas investor is nowhere to be seen.

VaFunkooloThreads: 7 Posts: 823 Joined: Mar 24, 08 ♂	Mar 16, 09, 01:16 #148
bolek: and in the polish tradition not prepared to lower the prices Muppets

dtaylorThreads: 15 Posts: 992 Joined: Sep 15, 07 ♂	Mar 16, 09, 01:23 #149
Yup, though understandable why people dont want to lower prices when they have invested their savings into it:/

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Mar 16, 09, 01:30 #150

VaFunkoolo:

Muppets

I wasn't being disrespectful, Its best to cut your losses sometimes, better than lossing the lot.

dtaylor:

Yup, though understandable why people dont want to lower prices when they have invested their savings into it:/

If you purchased a property to live in, you have lost nothing, when investing you must know that its not always money, money, money, just ask our friends in the US money market.

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