sa11y Threads: 6 / Posts: 339
Joined: Dec 12, 2011
Feb 16, 2012, 12:45pm #428
So in Poland paying 10 times your salary for a one bedroom flat, or 15 times your yearly salary for a house
Milky - but that's not what people are paying. You can't take the cost of flat in central Warsaw and compare it to buying power of a supermarket lady.
So let's look at example.
You said that generally as a couple you will be able to get a loan 3 x your combined annual salary.
Looking at Warsaw:
1) 1 bedroom flat in one of the "sleeper" areas (i.e. Bialoleka - still in Warsaw, good transport to the centre): approx 280 000 PLN
2) Average salary in Warsaw: ~5000 PLN (3500 PLN/nett)
- combined income: net 7000 *12 = 84000 PLN/pa
- 280000/84000= 3.33
- So in Warsaw, if you earn the average, you need to work just over 3 years to buy a flat (definitely 10-15 years!)
Looking at London:
1) 1 bedroom flat - East London: 180000 GBP (small flat, full ownership) - this will probably be bigger than the mentioned flat in Warsaw, so let's take 75% of that = 135000 GBP
2) Average salary in London: ~33000 PBP pa (21000 net)
- combined income: net 42000 GBP/pa
- 135000/42000 = 3.21
- So in East London if you earn average salary for London, you also need to work for just over 3 years (in fact as there is not enough small property, you would need to work more than that - perhaps that's why they came with idea of shared ownership)
Johannesburg (Edenvale - where I live)
1) 1-bedroom flat: 700000 ZAR - difficult to come by, properties are big here...
2) Average salary in Johannesburg: ~240000 ZAR/pa (155000 net)
- combined income: net 310000 ZAR/pa
- 700000/310000 = 2.25
- So in Johannesburg you need to work just over 2 years to afford a small flat. And even South Africa has recently been accused of having property bubble because property prices doubled in 5 years.
South Africa - low cost housing, targeted at lowest income group (they will probably make 100000 ZAR/year of combined income. You can buy a "match-box" house for 200000-300000 ZAR - so even in case of the lowest earning population the ratio of paying ~ 3 x combined annual income works.
My calculation has limitations - I took that the household income is a double of individual averages that is a generalization in the first place. But the bottom line is - that if there is a gap in the market, it eventually will get filled.
Poland has problem with low cost housing (not enough). So the assumption is that while the new properties will be probably in the same range as property in the rest of Europe, the old, small post communist establishments will lose value.
The economic situation in Poland changed since it joined EU and property price increases are linked to that rather than the bubble.