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Poland's apartment prices continue to fall


Harry Activity: 57 / 11,389
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
21 Feb 2012  #421

As usual, source or it didn't happen.
peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,035
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
21 Feb 2012  #422

More importantly..

Wages in Poland's private sector grow 8.1 percent

The average wage in Poland's private sector rose by 8.1 percent year-on-year in January, well above market forecasts of 4.9 percent, and significantly more than in December, when wages grew 4.4 percent, according to the Central Statistical Office.

"It is difficult to explain what the source of such a substantial acceleration of wages was without detailed data, but in our view this may be due to payment of bonuses or wage rises in a big company and (only partially) to [a] hike of [the minimum] wage, which jumped from zł.1,386 to zł.1,500 in January," Bank Zachodni WBK analysts wrote in a market report.

Employment growth in the private sector slowed to 0.9 percent year-on-year in January, from over 2 percent y/y a month earlier. In January 2011, the figure stood at 3.8 percent y/y, showing that there has been a substantial slowdown in the Polish labor market, according to BZ WBK.

wbj.pl/article-58115-wages-in-polands-private-sector-grow-81-percent.html
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
23 Feb 2012  #423

28 m2 doesn't sound so bad compared to 78 sq ft in New York

ca.shine.yahoo.com/manhattan-s-newest--smallest-apartment---architect-lives-in-78-square-foot-abode.html
milky Activity: 13 / 1,592
Joined: 26 Oct 2009 ♀
 
23 Feb 2012  #424

This is just one guy of about 20 years of age. Paying 750 $ when the average wage in New York is 935$; not so bad for a classy place like NY.

28 m2 doesn't sound so bad compared to 78 sq ft in New York


In Poland(in sh1tholes cities) there are large families of 4 and 5 living in 50 m apartments. That is bad.
Avalon Activity: 2 / 1,022
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 ♂
 
23 Feb 2012  #425

And if you took away their mobile phones, 40" televisions, cable subscriptions and cars, it would be a lot worse.
pip Activity: 13 / 1,669
Joined: 4 Jul 2011 ♀
 
23 Feb 2012  #426

In Poland(in sh1tholes cities) there are large families of 4 and 5 living in 50 m apartments. That is bad.


Poland doesn't have the same issues with space as the western world. This is not outrageous to live in an apartment of 50m with two kids a dog and the mother in law.

In fact, I have a friend who grew up in the blocks in Warsaw Ochota in a two room apartment with a kitchen. the family all slept in one 20 m2 room and the babcia slept in the other. That is 5 people in less than 50 m2 space.
Even now that he makes good money he bought an apartment- during the peak so he over paid grossly, in Mokotow, Warsaw- in a low rise block and the place is only about 65 m2--two kids.
I couldn't live like that but many people can.
Harry Activity: 57 / 11,389
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
23 Feb 2012  #427

large families of 4

Four people is a large family? A strange statement even by your standards.

I read yesterday that there are over 50.000 unsold apartments in the main 6 cities.
Also banks refusing mortgages unless couples have a joint income of 8000 zloty, net a month.

For the second time as asking: source please. Or should we just conclude that you're making things up?
sa11y Activity: 6 / 332
Joined: 12 Dec 2011 ♀
 
23 Feb 2012  #428

Paying 750 $ when the average wage in New York is 935$; not so bad for a classy place like NY

7 sq m is not bad (for 750 USD!) is not bad?
And 50 sq m for a family of 4 IS bad?
f stop Activity: 24 / 2,627
Joined: 9 Dec 2009 ♀
 
23 Feb 2012  #429

average wage in New York is 935$

that's per week
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
28 Feb 2012  #430

Warsaw stats and comparison - article extracts below:

Global housing market downturn gathering pace
Tuesday 28 February 2012
The world’s housing downturn is gathering momentum, according to the latest world-wide survey of house price indices prepared by the Global Property Guide. During 2011, house prices fell in 22 countries, of the 35 countries for which Q4 house price statistics are available, and rose in only 13 countries. Similarly, 21 housing markets performed worse during 2011 than last year, while only 14 countries performed better.
The figures for the 4th quarter of 2011 are somewhat worrying, with quarterly price rises in only 10 countries, but price falls in 25 countries. On the other hand, the apparent trend towards recovery in the US is positive.

The Global Property Guide’s statistical presentation uses price-changes after inflation, giving a more realistic picture than the more upbeat nominal figures usually preferred by real estate agents.

European housing markets still heading down
Most countries whose housing markets experienced accelerated downturns in 2011 are located in Europe, including Finland (-2.22% down in 2011), United Kingdom (-3.39%), Sweden (-5.29%), Netherlands (-5.77%), Slovak Republic (-6.88%), Portugal (-7.78%), Spain (-9.27%), Athens, Greece (-10.43%), and Warsaw, Poland (-10.55%).
Unhappy Ireland still holds the title of ‘world’s weakest housing market’, with house prices plummeting by 18.08% in 2011. With low transactions, constrained mortgage lending, and an uncertain economic environment, Irish house prices are likely to continue falling in 2012.

However, several European countries actually enjoyed house price rises in 2011. The highest house price climb in Europe was in Tallinn, Estonia, whose property market has been recovering since the second half of 2010. Over the past twelve months, house prices in Tallinn rose 8.36%.

Housing markets in the Ukraine and Iceland finally bounced back in the final quarter of 2011. In Kiev, apartment prices climbed by 5.29% (in nominal terms) from a year earlier, after falling 9.47% the previous year. Likewise, house prices in Iceland rose 1.84% year-on-year, after falling 4.18% the previous year.
pip Activity: 13 / 1,669
Joined: 4 Jul 2011 ♀
 
28 Feb 2012  #431

Canada hasn't been hit hard- which is interesting because of our geographical location.

business.financialpost.com/2012/02/21/canada-housing-prices-wont-crash-poll

One of my best friends husband just sold a house in 4 days- he is over the moon.
milky Activity: 13 / 1,592
Joined: 26 Oct 2009 ♀
 
28 Feb 2012  #432

(-5.29%), Netherlands (-5.77%), Slovak Republic (-6.88%), Portugal (-7.78%), Spain (-9.27%), Athens, Greece (-10.43%), and Warsaw, Poland (-10.55%).
Unhappy Ireland still holds the title of ‘world’s weakest housing market’, with house prices plummeting by 18.08% in 2011. With low transactions, constrained mortgage lending, and an uncertain economic environment, Irish house prices are likely to continue falling in 2012.

Why countries and then capitals of two cities....Why not one or the other
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
28 Feb 2012  #433

good question, I went to the source and it seems what they quoted for Warsaw is actually for Poland, by city info below. I'd recommend checking the website for the full article (not that you can trust any data anywhere - I doubt the country data they use is even comparable) - globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History

Yet Poland's housing market was Europe's second-worst performer in 2011, down by 10.55% in inflation-adjusted terms.
Prices fell less in major cities, but the downturn is significant:
· In Warsaw, the average price of "exposed units" (i.e. used units) fell 6.6% in 2011 (6.97% in real terms), according to REAS.
· Krakow used dwelling prices fell 5.53% (5.90% in real terms).
· Poznan used dwelling prices fell 4.57% (4.95% in real terms).
· Lodtz used dwelling prices fell 5.46% (5.83% in real terms).
· Tri-City used dwelling prices fell 3.44% (3.82% in real terms).
· Wroclaw used dwelling prices fell 8.39% (8.75% in real terms).
Compared to pre-crisis peaks:
· House prices in Warsaw are down by 13.63% (13.53% in real terms).
· In Krakow, house prices are down by 11.80% (13.2% in real terms).
· In Lodz, prices have fallen by 17.87.% (17.67% in real terms).
· In Tri-City, house prices plunged by 25.22% (26.62% in real terms).
· In Wroclaw, house prices are down by 31.91% (31.81% in real terms).
· In Poznan, property prices plummeted by 44.08% (44.18% in real terms).
delphiandomine Activity: 39 / 10,773
Joined: 25 Nov 2008 ♂
 :-(
28 Feb 2012  #434

That's absolutely bollocks, to say the least.

If they had fallen 44%, I'd be straight to the bank to ask for another mortgage as the prices would be laughably low given that the average wage here is now well over 4000zl/month.

Prices have fallen in Poznan by around 10% or so since the peak. Entirely expected, and given the continued sharp climb in wages, nothing out of the ordinary.
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
29 Feb 2012  #435

Like I said - you can't trust any data anywhere - at best it is not comparable apartments (ie. more lower standard/smaller apartments are being sold).

Some more data from the news today for those who like data

Apartments losing value
Not all real estate markets in Europe have bounced back from the financial crisis - and
the Polish one belongs to them. Apartments have become cheaper since the 2007
housing bubble. Taking into account inflation, average value has fallen by a quarter,
according to professor Michael Ball from Reading University in Great Britain.
According to his newest report, "2012 RICS European Housing Review," it appears in
Ireland prices have fallen by more than 50% and in Great Britain and Hungary, by
more than 30%.
Avalon Activity: 2 / 1,022
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 ♂
 
29 Feb 2012  #436


Like I said - you can't trust any data anywhere


You can trust the stats that Milky posts here. They were perfectly correct four years ago.
peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,035
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
29 Feb 2012  #437

That's absolutely bollocks, to say the least.


I agreed, its mathematically impossible to come to those figures, for instance

• In Poznan, property prices plummeted by 44.08% (44.18% in real terms).

So the effect of inflation (3-5% per year) is a difference of 0.1% over several years?

• In Krakow, house prices are down by 11.80% (13.2% in real terms).

whereas inflation in Krakow results in 1.4%?? Inflation is a national figure so the effect should be equally proportional.

Bunkum.
milky Activity: 13 / 1,592
Joined: 26 Oct 2009 ♀
 
29 Feb 2012  #438

In Lublin the prices are pretty much the same as last year and the year before.
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #439

google translation

In cities such as Lodz, Katowice, Bydgoszcz and Gorzow Wielkopolski apartments can be bought used for less than three thousand. zł per square meter. This price does not mean a bad standard, but a worse location, and usually a larger area - underline analysts.

In smaller towns, flats, especially in the secondary market, prices are relatively competitive. The data service Ofert.net that, in Lodz, the lowest bid per square meter of your home are 2.8 thousand. zł, 2.7 thousand in Katowice. zł per sq. m is even cheaper in Bydgoszcz , where the lowest asking prices of flats on the other hand are 2.6 thousand. zł per sq. m, and Gorzów these prices fluctuate around two thousand. zł died sq Drogomirecki Martin, principal analyst Oferty.net service, ensures that the cheapest bid is contrary to appearances, they are not vandalized properties in the ruined buildings.
- These are usually properties in quite good condition. Their low prices due to the fact that this was worse than central locations - Drogomirecki said. The second factor that influences the price reduction per square meter, is, according to analyst area. The relationship is such that the flat surface is higher, the price per square meter lower. apartments cheaper because wages are low According to Jaroslaw leap, a representative office in the agency Emmerson, low housing prices in cities such as Lodz , Katowice , whether due to Gorzow that in these markets is at a standstill. - There is a lack of purchasing power in these cities because people earn much less than in urban areas such as Warsaw - said Skoczeń. He added that all these local factors compounded the crisis which has affected the housing market even in large cities and small is often felt even more.
Avalon Activity: 2 / 1,022
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #440

In Lublin the prices are pretty much the same as last year and the year before.


No sign of the 50% fall in prices then? still, its early days yet.
Harry Activity: 57 / 11,389
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #441

But you have to remember that prices being the same now as they were two years ago is actually a real fall of 27.6%.
sa11y Activity: 6 / 332
Joined: 12 Dec 2011 ♀
 
1 Mar 2012  #442

No sign of the 50%

My mom just sold her old flat for just 4.1 k zl/sqm and bought a bigger one for similar pm cost. And that's in Kielce - I really don't know where are those flats for 2.8 k zl/sqm, not in Kielce...
Avalon Activity: 2 / 1,022
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #443

But you have to remember that prices being the same now as they were two years ago is actually a real fall of 27.6%.


Source please ; )
peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,035
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #444

But you have to remember that prices being the same now as they were two years ago is actually a real fall of 27.6%.


You got the principle, even if your maths is still suspect.
pip Activity: 13 / 1,669
Joined: 4 Jul 2011 ♀
 
1 Mar 2012  #445

no. still no bubble.
Harry Activity: 57 / 11,389
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #446

Yes pip, but if prices stay the same for the next fifty years, that might mean that there was a bubble.....
peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,035
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
2 Mar 2012  #447

No Harry, that would be a crash in real terms.
Kielbasa Kid Activity: 2 / 4
Joined: 25 Feb 2009 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #448

For most, property as an investment, turns out to be, merely a hedge against inflation.
If property prices stay neutral for 50, 20 or even 1 or 2 years, then in real terms it has actually gone down.

The longer prices are stagnant, the more drastic the fall in real terms.
peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,035
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #449

For most, property as an investment, turns out to be, merely a hedge against inflation.


Property is a very good hedge against inflation over the long term. No matter waht people can/will pay a large part - and stable in real terms - of their wage towards somewhere to live; if they can work while living there.

Short term, under seven years it can be a good or bad. As long as you can wait 'seven years' to sell it will be fine..
Harry Activity: 57 / 11,389
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #450

For most, property as an investment, turns out to be, merely a hedge against inflation.

Most people buy property as primarily a place to live rather than as an investment.



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Poland's apartment prices continue to fall
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