Poland Housing prices in July 2010

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Sep 1, 10, 13:02 #1

halo

is see that the link to the report was deleted by Moderator, that is why I pasted it one more time :)

part of the report you can find here, the rest of the report is available on the web site polishmortgages.eu

might this time they will not delete it.

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Bids in July 2010

Warsaw, Wroclaw, Krakow, Poznan, Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot

Price changes that occurred in July 2010 confirms the lack of a steady trend in the Polish real estate market. In June, the average bid increased by 0.8%, while in July the average price index was -0.6%. The only cities of the eight analyzed, that did not notice the drops in July were Warsaw and Poznan. However, Wroclaw and Krakow average bids decreased by 0.4% and 0.6%, and the average decrease of 1.4% took place in the Tri-City.

Compared with July 2009 the current average bids are higher by 1.7% in Sopot, Warsaw 1.9%, 2.2% in Gdansk, Wroclaw 3.8% and 4.9% in Poznan and 5.4 % in Krakow. The only city where the average bid is less than a year ago is Gdynia.

Given the fact that in recent months, we’ve had minor increases in monthly average prices, and also with the autumn real estate market experiencing seasonal revival, increases in average bids of around 0.8% to 1% by the end of 2010 are possible.

more date on the website. I am not able to paste everything here...

regards

SeanBMThreads: 41 Posts: 8,727 Joined: Mar 10, 08 ♂	Sep 1, 10, 13:26 #2
Hello, I saw your previous link but I had to log in to access the information, do you charge money for this? And what exactly would you like to discuss? The fluctuations you mention are negligible or do you think it shows something else? or are you just trying to get us to your website and get a mortgage with you ;p

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Sep 1, 10, 20:00 #3

halo SeanBM

there is not charge to register to the website.

the report show only data and trends, you have to drawn the conclusions by yourself.

You have right that fluctuation of the property prices are very small but this report show also something else... that the bank margins drops significantly and mortgage eligibility is higher.

the crisis started because of mortgages and the recover must also start from mortgages.

I am also happy if the customer will take mortgage or other services which we provide that is why we decided to publish a such reports or news that customer visit our website often.

regards
Daniel

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Sep 11, 10, 13:02 #4

All these property sites saying that property price are set to improve in 2011, is a sort of doublethink,to improve in their game means for the bubble to get even bigger. Even though from a vast majority perspective to improve would mean the bubble to burst. Its like the government stating on the news that electricity bills in 2011 are set to improve,would this mean they are going to go up??
The reason for the bubble is emigration to the the west, this is obvious,the other factors played a part, but not a major influence.
I think one of the reason for the bubble surviving in Poland may be due the amount of money actually saved by Polish people working abroad as opposed to the living on credit mentality of the rest. A large percentage of the property purchasing population still have a sack of cash and the sellers know this. It all a game of poker now. The sack of cash is emptying and developers are going into massive debt.

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Edited by: SeanBM Sep 11, 10, 14:16 #5

milky, just looking at your profile there, you spend the large majority of your time on this site in the property section, why is that?
You claim not to be involved in property in Poland, indeed you claim to not live in Poland at all but in Ireland, which is going through a similar situation to Greece at the moment.

milky:

The sack of cash is emptying and developers are going into massive debt.

You obviously know nothing of the property situation here in Poland, so why do you make these things up?
You never provide any kind of evidence to back up your imaginings either.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Sep 11, 10, 15:10 #6
what -ever, believe what you want, im just throwing out a thought once and a while, thats all. So whats your view on what i said..

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Edited by: SeanBM Sep 11, 10, 15:22 #7

milky:

what -ever, believe what you want, im just throwing out a thought once and a while, thats all.

So you don't want to answer why you spend the majority of your time on real estate threads here, sure.

milky:

So whats your view on what i said..

milky:

The sack of cash is emptying and developers are going into massive debt.

As I said You obviously know nothing of the property situation here in Poland and I have evidence.

Based on GUS data on Open Finance's website

"By the end of July the developers have increased the number of ongoing investment by 77 percent. compared to 2009."

HarryThreads: 62 Posts: 8,508 Joined: May 2, 07 ♂ [Suspended]	Sep 11, 10, 15:25 #8
milky: whats your view on what i said.. My view is that no matter how low prices drop (which they aren't going to do much more anyway), people who spend their whole day trying to be an Internet entrepreneur (while sending the wife out to actually work) will never be able to afford that flat in Krakow they so desperately want. Do you know anybody like that 'milky'?

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Sep 11, 10, 15:49 #9

milky:

The reason for the bubble is emigration to the the west, this is obvious,the other factors played a part, but not a major influence.

The reason for the rise in property in Poland, was supply V demand,cheap CHF mortgages, as well as overseas workers repatriated funds and foreign investors. Now if you wanted the big discounts you could haves switched your Euro to PLN at 4.7 Euro/Pln and negotiated a discount of up to 30% on 2008 prices but the desperate sellers are thinning out. Poland is not like the west it is not all Location,Location,Location because it is timing,timing timing and most importantly who you know.

Harry:

My view is that no matter how low prices drop (which they aren't going to do much more anyway), people who spend their whole day trying to be an Internet entrepreneur (while sending the wife out to actually work) will never be able to afford that flat in Krakow they so desperately want. Do you know anybody like that 'milky'?

If Milky, wants to post comments on this forum playing the devils advocate, its an open forum - so give him a break, furthermore his personal situation has got nada to do with you,me or anyone else.

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Edited by: SeanBM Sep 11, 10, 15:52 #10

warszawski:

If Milky, wants to post comments on this forum playing the devils advocate

I agree to an extent, however when someone spends there time misinforming and deliberately lying it is a different story.

His personal situation is however exactly that, personal, and as you say has no bearing on the subject.

warszawski:

The reason for the rise in property in Poland

And all those billions of Euros from the E.U. keeping the lads in work, helps a great deal.

warszawskiThreads: 60 Posts: 2,389 Joined: May 21, 10 ♂	Sep 11, 10, 16:17 #11
SeanBM: And all those billions of Euros from the E.U. keeping the lads in work, helps a great deal. Absolutely, my thoughts are there is a shortage of supply in the luxury market and it still has a way to go. Bottom to lower middle end its a dog fight. Also the quality of the build now is far superior to what it was in 89 to 99

skubusThreads: 6 Posts: 27 Joined: Jun 28, 10 ♂	Sep 11, 10, 17:14 #12
i would be interested in finding out more about property prices in poland as my wife and i want to move there

SeanBMThreads: 41 Posts: 8,727 Joined: Mar 10, 08 ♂	Sep 11, 10, 17:31 #13
skubus: i would be interested in finding out more about property prices in poland Where, what price range and what type of property? There are huge differences between types and areas, you'll have to be a lot more specific if you want any feed back.

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Sep 11, 10, 19:42 #14

warszawski:

milky:
The reason for the bubble is emigration to the the west, this is obvious,the other factors played a part, but not a major influence.

The reason for the rise in property in Poland, was supply V demand,cheap CHF mortgages, as well as overseas workers repatriated funds and foreign investors. Now if you wanted the big discounts you could haves switched your Euro to PLN at 4.7 Euro/Pln and negotiated a discount of up to 30% on 2008 prices but the desperate sellers are thinning out

I know what you are saying but some people are tryin to play down the fact completelythat Poles abroad are bringing in the money(billions)
But
Do you think i have a point here in relation to the bubble remaining so long,

milky:

All these property sites saying that property price are set to improve in 2011, is a sort of doublethink,to improve in their game means for the bubble to get even bigger. Even though from a vast majority perspective to improve would mean the bubble to burst. Its like the government stating on the news that electricity bills in 2011 are set to improve,would this mean they are going to go up??
The reason for the bubble is emigration to the the west, this is obvious,the other factors played a part, but not a major influence.
I think one of the reason for the bubble surviving in Poland may be due the amount of money actually saved by Polish people working abroad as opposed to the living on credit mentality of the rest. A large percentage of the property purchasing population still have a sack of cash and the sellers know this. It all a game of poker now. The sack of cash is emptying and developers are going into massive debt.

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Sep 11, 10, 20:58 #15

milky:

milky:
All these property sites saying that property price are set to improve in 2011, is a sort of doublethink,to improve in their game means for the bubble to get even bigger. Even though from a vast majority perspective to improve would mean the bubble to burst. Its like the government stating on the news that electricity bills in 2011 are set to improve,would this mean they are going to go up??
The reason for the bubble is emigration to the the west, this is obvious,the other factors played a part, but not a major influence.
I think one of the reason for the bubble surviving in Poland may be due the amount of money actually saved by Polish people working abroad as opposed to the living on credit mentality of the rest. A large percentage of the property purchasing population still have a sack of cash and the sellers know this. It all a game of poker now. The sack of cash is emptying and developers are going into massive debt.

Milky, I am on the ground in Warszawa and I really do not have the feeling that there will be a crash like in the USA. There has been a re-correction that is a fact and no-one can deny that. But now people are starting to buy in myself included, I bought one apartment 3 months ago and I have placed an offer on another that has just been excepted. I have done my homework and know what to buy and what not to buy. I can only speak about Warszawa as I know it well. There are some real estate companies with English sounding names that have been driving up the price in certain enclaves of this city and that has spilled over to the next district.If people have bought too high then it is sit and wait. Bit in my opinion the only people that can sell now with reasonable profit are the ones that bought before 2005/2006. The one that bought after that are locked in for a while,

Your questions,

1. I do not have the figures for the amount of funds coming to Poland from overseas these days, I think Harry or Jonni will have access to those.

2. Regarding developers going into debt, of course there will be consolidation like in any sector. But I believe the ones that will take the hit are the Irish and Spanish developers. There is still a lot of building to be done in the big cities in Poland and with that comes opportunity,but it is not for the faint hearted and it is not as easy as it was 10 years ago.

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Sep 11, 10, 22:42 #16

halo

I have one question to all the people saying that the property will fall or increase. When have you been in Warsaw, Krakow or other town in Poland. Please read some data about properties. Have you compared rental to mortgage payment. Do you know if it is cheaper for poles to rent or buy the apartment. I could write more questions but for me it doesn't matter if the property will drop or increase. the most important thing is that there were transactions on the market. that people start buying properties because.

I always say that property crisis started because of mortgages and to recover banks must start giving money. In Poland bank are willing to give mortgages. We can get mortgage with very low margins again, for 100% or 110% LTV. it is a good sign. I have noticed also a new trend in mortgages but I do not want to write about it yet. I do not believe to any property report which is saying "buy now, this is the best time to buy" but I can say that I am more positive than negative. there is always possibility to earn on the properties and now I see a lot of opportunities but you have to remember about selection and location.

come now and see Warsaw and you might change your point of view.

regards
Daniel

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 57 Posts: 5,478 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER ♂	Sep 12, 10, 09:32 #17
milky: believe what you want, im just throwing out a thought once and a while, thats all. A thought would be nice, you're like a broken record you just keep saying the same things over and over.

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Sep 12, 10, 10:11 #18

polishmortgages:

I have one question to all the people saying that the property will fall or increase.

You will notice that nobody is saying that property will increase.
Your own data indicates the same thing.

And it appears the only people saying it will fall are people with no idea of what is happening.

polishmortgages:

I have noticed also a new trend in mortgages but I do not want to write about it yet.

Ah go on, tell us :)

polishmortgages:

I do not believe to any property report which is saying "buy now, this is the best time to buy" but I can say that I am more positive than negative.

This always sets off alarm bells for me too.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Sep 12, 10, 11:10 #19
Wroclaw Boy: you're like a broken record you just keep saying the same things over and over. False statement my old joker. I ask a question and seek an answer. Simple,and if attacked with snark, I ask the question again.

SeanBMThreads: 41 Posts: 8,727 Joined: Mar 10, 08 ♂	Sep 12, 10, 12:52 #20
milky: I ask a question and seek an answer. What question? You made a false statement and when it was contested you behaved like a child and it was rightly sent to "random" to be deleted. Milky, I think it would be much better if you did ask questions but it seems you will throw your toys out of your pram at the answers, I hope I am wrong about that.

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Sep 12, 10, 13:33 #21

milky

Wroclaw Boy:
you're like a broken record you just keep saying the same things over and over

False statement my old joker. I ask a question and seek an answer. Simple,and if attacked with snark, I ask the question again.

Every week or so, you revive the same topics about property. As SeanBM states, "you supposedly live in Ireland, have no connection with Poland and yet you continue to provide false statements as to the health of the property market here. You never supply any up to date links or factual information that can be checked or challenged. You suggest that anybody who is involved with property, whether a builder/estate agent, fit-out specialist etc. is trying to talk the market up to get prices to rise.
You have predicted falls in the price of property which are absolutely rediculous, you have also predicted that many developers will go bankrupt. None of this has happened, indeed, if you can read the Warsaw Business Journal, you would understand that there are many reports of developers stepping up their new projects and announcing new starts in many of the major cities. These developers are shying away from the top end luxury market and concentrating on smaller, less expensive units, many with the starting price of 6-8000 PLN m2, not the 2000m2 which you and your other "associates" ( I will refrain from using the word alias's) seem to think should be the norm. These developers have "done their homework", they would not undertake to build these new apartments unless there was a high percentage in their favour that the units will sell and they will make a profit.
Since my own small project of 13 apartments was finished (building legalised) in January of this year, I have sold 10 of the apartments, many people viewed them but most had trouble getting a mortgage from the banks, but, in the past few months this has changed and there has been a surge of buyers. I took a chance on building in an area outside of the main town (10kms) next to the lakes and forests, my apartments are 1000 PLN m2 below the town prices. I have the confidence now to start preparing my next project as I still believe that there are not enough new, affordable places being built and the lower price of land in this area will enable me to keep the prices down. Everyone of my apartments has been sold to a Polish buyer which negates the statement that only foriegners can afford to buy in Poland.

Milky, I have read your posts and "English does not seem to be your main language", but, you may recall an old English adage, "better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool, than open your mouth and prove it".

You will now use this strange word "Snark" to descibe my post, as someone telling you the truth of the property market in Poland will not suit your agenda.

There are those that talk and those that do, you seem to be one of the latter.

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Sep 13, 10, 16:28 #22

Avalon:

These developers are shying away from the top end luxury market and concentrating on smaller, less expensive units, many with the starting price of 6-8000 PLN m2,

Maybe in Wroclaw, but in Warsaw there is still a demand for luxury, also you have the second home market here, as business people will buy an apartment rather than stay in hotels all the time

Avalon:

These developers have "done their homework", they would not undertake to build these new apartments unless there was a high percentage in their favour that the units will sell and they will make a profit.

Yes everything is about timing and infrastructure, there are projects here were the land has been bought, but building has not started because buyers could not get mortgages, now the banks are lending. If a developer has a good co-operation with a bank or a reseller of mortgages, it can only be a good thing.

Avalon:

I took a chance on building in an area outside of the main town (10kms) next to the lakes and forests, my apartments are 1000 PLN m2 below the town prices. I have the confidence now to start preparing my next project as I still believe that there are not enough new, affordable places being built and the lower price of land in this area will enable me to keep the prices down. Everyone of my apartments has been sold to a Polish buyer which negates the statement that only foriegners can afford to buy in Poland.

What works in the UK will work in other countries. More industrial parks are being built in the suburbs and people would like to live within a short distance to were they work. Congratulations on the project I wish you success with the next.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Oct 22, 10, 23:11 #23
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31 &Itemid=74&jumival=5732

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Oct 23, 10, 10:28 #24

milky

A very good (American) documentary which has nothing in common with the situation in Poland. The stock market here never reacted to the "buying and selling" attitude that happened on Wall Street. No Polish banks went bust. Polish banks never dealt in "complicated derivatives", Poland has not printed money for quantitative easing, therefore allowing their currency to devalue, so how the hell does this article have anything to do with the situation here? The interest rate in Poland is 4.25% which is just above the line of inflation, compare this to the interests rates in the States and the UK, 0.25%, (forecast to remain this way until 2015). People are getting no returns on their savings which are being eroded by inflation and the higher costs of living. There is now talk of currency wars where countries which have not had to debase their currencies will benefit from overseas investments as people look for returns elsewhere.
Even the past week will show how the strength of the Zloty has increased. Its going to be a roller coaster ride if you gamble on this sort of thing, but it seems to me that the Polish economy is very stable at the moment, which in turn, will keep property prices stable.
As for the Americans, you must remember that they do not seem to have found a solution to their own financial problems, in fact, they have not even found Bin Laden yet, so I would not put too much trust in what they have to say.
I have watched the property market pick up in the second half of this year and I feel confident that this increase, although slow, will continue. We will not see the 50% per year increases of 2007, but, I think that 5-8% a year will be realistic.

HarryThreads: 62 Posts: 8,508 Joined: May 2, 07 ♂ [Suspended]	Oct 26, 10, 09:45 #25
milky: Sorry M but that link has nothing to do with Poland. And no matter how many times you report my posts, that link will still have nothing to do with Poland. Try harder M.

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Oct 26, 10, 09:59 #26

Avalon:

I have watched the property market pick up in the second half of this year and I feel confident that this increase, although slow, will continue. We will not see the 50% per year increases of 2007, but, I think that 5-8% a year will be realistic.

Do you think that real estate is still undervalued in Poland? Or that a 50% increase isn't speculative?

You mentioned why it's so expensive to build, on the economic side of things, wages have gone up 50% over the last 10 years and is slowing down year by year to about the rate of inflation. Shouldn't housing prices follow suit? Quite a few new builds are still empty (at least here in Wroclaw).

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Oct 26, 10, 11:36 #27

What would drive a 5-8% increase in prices per annum ? Houses are already grossly overvalued compared to wages and to rent levels.

Much more likely over a few years is a 30% dip in towns outside Warsaw. I just finished a deal for one piece of real estate for almost 25% less than the asking price (and about 15% less than for what it went for in 2008)

And Polish banks did deal in derivatives - Millennium, Raiffeisen and BRE all have high exposure to currency derivatives which they flogged to Polish businesses who didnt understand them.

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Oct 26, 10, 11:44 #28

convex

Do you think that real estate is still undervalued in Poland? Or that a 50% increase isn't speculative?

Its not for me to say whether any property is over or under valued, at the end of the day its the market that will dictate the price. A 50% increase would definitely be very speculative and not something I would like to see. A slow increase would stabilize the markets and allow for better planning.

You mentioned why it's so expensive to build, on the economic side of things, wages have gone up 50% over the last 10 years and is slowing down year by year to about the rate of inflation. Shouldn't housing prices follow suit? Quite a few new builds are still empty (at least here in Wroclaw).

I have read reports from the large developers that materials and labour costs have decreased by some 20% which has offset the cost of the reductions made on finished properties. Mortgages are still hard to come by and I would imagine that the vacant apartments in Wroclaw are priced above the limits that mortgage lenders feel comfortable with.
With regard to wage rises slowing down to inflation levels, I think that may be hard to achieve when the government has increased VAT and the utilities, gas, electric and water, are asking for 22% increases. If and I mean its a BIG if, the government wants to adopt the Euro, wages are going to have to increase to try and have a level playing field.
I am already planning my next project and I have allowed for a small increase in labour/materials, the selling price will remain the same as I am at the lower end of the market and any projects still have to be viable.
The interest/response to my last project over the past few months has been incredible and I feel very confident for the future. An added bit of information, 30% of the flats were sold to Polish couples who work in the UK, they are not moving in for some time and they originally come from this area.

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Oct 26, 10, 11:49 #29

Avalon:

I am already planning my next project and I have allowed for a small increase in labour/materials, the selling price will remain the same as I am at the lower end of the market and any projects still have to be viable.
The interest/response to my last project over the past few months has been incredible and I feel very confident for the future.

Based on what you said, your last project seems to be fairly common sense. I figure affordable housing will be a win here for years to come.

You mentioned that bureaucracy and red tape adds quite a bit to the cost of building, is it easier to build outside of the cities, or do deal with the same people/paperwork?

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Oct 26, 10, 12:36 #30

convex:

Do you think that real estate is still undervalued in Poland? Or that a 50% increase isn't speculative?

In my opinion, the main problem with Polish real estate market is the real estate agents and unrealistic sellers, the REA are unscrupulous, they drive the market up, if you look at prices on the RE or REA internet sites, it beggars belief the prices that are being asked. As an example, in Warsaw I have seen a house being offered at 6,300,000 PLN by one agent and 4,500,000 by another. It is common to see a property being offered for sale by different agents with a price difference of between 5-20%. for the same property. I would never buy through a Polish real estate agent, only directly with a seller or a developer, once a project has been at least 80% built.

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