Polish apartment prices continue to fall

warszawskiThreads: 60 Posts: 2,389 Joined: May 21, 10 ♂	Jun 18, 11, 17:09 #91
As for people talking about real estate in Poland on PF, there are the usual suspects with their own views of the market (I am one of them)good or bad. On the issue of Milky v Mark Biernet, I have to say that Milky comes across as an Irish fella and http://www.linkedin.com/pub/mark-biernat/6/400/465 states he is from the states. So I am missing something here...

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jun 20, 11, 19:27 #92
warszawski: So I am missing something here... No you are not, the guys are snarking.

♂

Jun 20, 11, 19:29 #93

scottie1113:

You all seem to know who Milky is, but I don't. Can you enlighten me?

Basically he's pointing out that Polish house prices are vastly over inflated compared to wages, which is true. He's fighting a losing battle against the predictable Vested Interest's who use the 'its different this time', 'special case', 'jealousy' arguments with a large dose of person insults to hide their fears/hopes.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jun 20, 11, 19:35 #94
peterweg: large dose of person insults big time..creating a distraction from the real issue. They will attack any minute now lol

guesswhoThreads: 23 Posts: 3,326 Joined: Mar 17, 10 ♀	Jun 20, 11, 20:00 #95
Wroclaw Boy: Polish apartment prices continue to fall hey WB, do you know if Americans can buy properties in Poland? I have a bet going here and I'm trying to win $50.00. (I hope I'm right :-)

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Edited by: BritinPoland Jun 20, 11, 21:12 #96

Over on this forum, the bulls have gone very quiet lately www.housepricecrash.co.uk

I am seeing quite a few for sale banners and signs outside older apartments in Poland, as well as big signs outside the new blocks.

And as an outsider admittedly, still have observed the price per square metre in the cities here seems well out of step with average salaries, leading me to suspect high multiple mortgages are being loaned, high deposit values from families (or Bank of Mum & Dad as it's called in the UK) are being given, or foreign money is buying. High multiples and bad mortgage debts have huge dangers - some of you PMd me to say that Polish banks are very careful. If they turn out to not have been so careful, will the Polish central bank do a Mervyn King and slash rates to 0.5% and say to hell with inflation as they have in Britain, pretty much? I just wonder if Poland really is doing so well or is living in lala land like Eire was.

Blue touch paper lit I suppose, but had to get it off my chest.

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Jun 24, 11, 17:12 #97

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/poland/110204/poland-economy-public -debt

From this article:
Poland's lucky streak has ended as it grapples with rising public debt and a stubbornly high budget deficit — while continuing to borrow money abroad.
OK

a Polish factory worker still makes about a fifth that of his German counterpart for essentially the same work.
OK

Real estate prices have settled down. The average price of apartments dropped by about 10 percent in 2009, a reaction to the collapse of real estate markets in western Europe and to the fact that average prices for a square meter of living space had soared above $3,000, putting housing out of reach for many average earners. However, since then the price falls have stopped, and buyers are beginning to return, helped by a government program aimed at helping poorer families buy their first apartment.

Is this 'government program' (Government/Developer scam)not just collusion with developers and their hyper inflated prices? Why not allow prices to settle naturally? and should the government be spending money to help developers?

“We're starting to see some life come back into the market. The crisis is definitely over for the sector,” said Kazimierz Kirejczyk, head of the Reas property consultancy.
LOL....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_AZBQEvhYc&feature=related

♂ [Suspended]

Jun 24, 11, 17:20 #98

milky:

Is this 'government program' (Government/Developer scam)not just collusion with developers and their hyper inflated prices?

No: it is cheaper to help people to house themselves than it is to provide housing for them.

milky:

Why not allow prices to settle naturally?

Prices are settling naturally: the scheme which you mention above is for the low-end of the market (i.e. the one which has seen growth all the way through the crisis).

Naturally, the prices are still out of your reach, but that is more a comment on you and your refusal to get a real job than about the price of property in Poland.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jun 24, 11, 18:03 #99
Harry: No: it is cheaper to help people to house themselves than it is to provide housing for them. It's funny how the hard core advocates of the free-market economy, deplore(ideologically) religiously, any governmental interference with the markets; unless it's 'interference', that benits "them".

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Jun 24, 11, 18:06 #100

milky:

It's funny how the hard core advocates of the free-market economy, deplore(ideologically) religiously, any governmental interference with the markets; unless it's 'interference', that benits "them".

Mark, you might want to consider which is more 'free market': helping people buy their own home on the free market or giving them a home free of charge.

The most 'free market' thing to do would be to let them starve in the streets. Support that do you?

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Jun 24, 11, 18:31 #101

Harry:

The most 'free market' thing to do would be to let them starve in the streets.

Well you are the Thatcher supporter so.............
Government spending on social housing was very low between 2002-06 in Eire, then in 2007 just before the real estate bubble burst, mysteriously, local governments all over the country(especially in Galway/Dublin) exploded into a buying spree of Social housing. All the government had to do was wait, a matter of months/days and the prices would have collapsed, but no. Government interference and brown envelopes had to prevail. Was the 300% increase in spending on Social housing to benifit the majority?
like wise in Poland with the scam grants''

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jul 13, 11, 20:23 #102
Foreigners abandon Polish property market http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/364edd54-1769-11e0-badd-00144feabdc0.html#ax zz1S0ijAhPv

AvalonThreads: 3 Posts: 814 Joined: Sep 11, 07 ♂	Jul 13, 11, 21:28 #103
milky Foreigners abandon Polish property market This is one foreigner that is not abandoning that is not abandoning it. Just had a nice 10 days in the South of France, tanned, fit and raring to get the next project started. How is life with you Mark?, still happy and optimistic I see. I take it you do not qualify for the "first family scheme"?

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Edited by: milky Jul 13, 11, 21:48 #104
Avalon: How is life with you Mark?, mistake in identity... I'm not an American or the American you speak of. I hope you enjoyed France.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jul 15, 11, 10:51 #105
http://www.krakow-info.com/flats.htm article says.... "Since 2008 prices of flats have mostly remained stagnant in Krakow but they are certain to race upwards again sooner or later. " They are "certain to race upwards......... Certain. LOL sad thing is, people will still fall for sweeping(b0llsh1t) statements like this.

AvalonThreads: 3 Posts: 814 Joined: Sep 11, 07 ♂	Jul 15, 11, 11:41 #106
milky "Since 2008 prices of flats have mostly remained stagnant in Krakow but they are certain to race upwards again sooner or later. " So your prediction of a 60% price crash has not happened then?

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jul 15, 11, 12:02 #107
milky: certain to race upwards again sooner or later. " This is not to do with me, it is about the use of the word "certain', the author is certain about what he says. I wonder, just how CERTAIN he really his? CERTAIN Avalon: So your prediction of a 60% price crash has not happened then? no the market is stagnant,time will tell. Im not 'certain'.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jul 26, 11, 15:14 #108
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2017817/Poles-sending-home-3bn -year--pay-4-5m-week-benefits.html Polish workers in Britain have sent home £23billion in the past seven years, an official report revealed last night. Amounting to more than £3billion a year, So what fueled the property bubble in Poland?? Polish wages??

HarryThreads: 62 Posts: 8,508 Joined: May 2, 07 ♂ [Suspended]	Jul 26, 11, 15:34 #109
So what fueled the property bubble in Poland?? Polish wages?? Still haven't learned the meaning of the word 'bubble' then Mark.

pipThreads: 11 Posts: 1,293 Joined: Jul 4, 11 ♀	Edited by: pip Jul 26, 11, 16:13 #110
ok- so it isn't just me that found his post didn't make sense.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jul 26, 11, 16:30 #111
k- so it isn't just me that found his post didn't make sense. explain your mis-understanding, and I will try and clarify.

pipThreads: 11 Posts: 1,293 Joined: Jul 4, 11 ♀	Jul 26, 11, 16:36 #112
how about we start with your definition of a "bubble"--not from wikipedia please. And then decide where you think Poland is in this bubble.

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,229 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Edited by: milky Jul 26, 11, 18:30 #113
ok- so it isn't just me that found his post didn't make sense. how about we start with your definition of a "bubble"--not from wikipedia please. And then decide where you think Poland is in this bubble. Ohhhhh OK, so you did understand my statement, you just disagree. Wikapedia is fine for me, this is my opinion as well so.......... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble

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Jul 26, 11, 18:52 #114

Ohhhhh OK, so you did understand my statement, you just disagree.
Wikapedia is fine for me, this is my opinion as well so.....

The lady asked you a question, where in Poland is the property bubble?

The link you posted states that a property bubble is followed by house prices crashing, where has this happened?, we are not just talking about the luxury end of the market because the link also states :

The arguments for further real estate prices rise or stabilization are:

fast increase of salaries - around 8% per year;
low figures of both housing estate area and apartments per person, compared to other developed countries worldwide;
money repatriated by Poles who have emigrated;
rapid urbanization - the population of rural areas and small towns is declining rapidly, while the population of major urban areas is increasing quickly;
Warsaw has a population of only 2 million people – approximately 5% of the whole of the country – very low for a capital city.

No wonder the lady is confused by your posts.

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Jul 26, 11, 19:57 #115

The lady asked you a question, where in Poland is the property bubble?

Did she??
The part between Germany and Russia..

where has this happened?,

When will this happen ? you mean..
Stagnation period atm...

I was jus making the point that;
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2017817/Poles-sending-home-3bn -year--pay-4-5m-week-benefits.html

Polish workers in Britain have sent home £23billion in the past seven years, an official report revealed last night.

Amounting to more than £3billion a year,

So what fueled the property bubble in Poland?? Polish wages??

No wonder the lady is confused by your posts.

no she's not. £23billion in the past seven years, from just GB,,,,lol

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Jul 26, 11, 22:01 #116

Did she??
The part between Germany and Russia..
where has this happened
When will this happen ? you mean..
Stagnation period atm...

No specifics/facts as usual. Stagnation is not a crash, which is what you have been predicting for years.
If the Poles in the UK are sending back 3 billion a year it means that they are not buying property and intend to return, hence the need for new housing.
For Poles to receive benefit after they have paid tax and NI contributions is fair. To pay benefits to people who have not paid into the system is stupid so blame the UK government, if someone was giving away free money would you not take it?
You never seem to refer to any positive news, today in the Warsaw Business Journal, there is an artical which states that Poland's deficit will be 25% Less for this year due to improved inflow of taxes which means that people and business's are earning more. This does not sound like a country in trouble to me. I am not saying that things may get worse in the future, the GlOBAL economy is looking dire and this may have a "knock on" effect in Poland, but, it has not happened yet.

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Edited by: SeanBM Jul 26, 11, 23:16 #117

Lets take a look at real figures instead of opinions.

Median price per sqm. in April 2008 (At peak).

Gdańsk 6119 zł
Kraków 6423 zł
Poznań 6490 zł
Warszawa 8571 zł
Wrocław 6626 zł

Open Finance

And here we are for May 2011:

Gdańsk 5718 zł
Kraków 6385 zł
Poznań 5690 zł
Warszawa 7844 zł
Wrocław 6005 zł

Again Open Finance.

Remeber ladies and jellybeans, this is from peak, you can find on Open Finance's website that prices have stabalised since the peak.

pipThreads: 11 Posts: 1,293 Joined: Jul 4, 11 ♀	Jul 27, 11, 11:11 #118
so these minor changes- where is the bubble?

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Edited by: jwojcie Jul 27, 11, 22:44 #119

Mark, you might want to consider which is more 'free market': helping people buy their own home on the free market or giving them a home free of charge.

The most 'free market' thing to do would be to let them starve in the streets. Support that do you?

Harry the problem with mortgages from "Rodzina na swoim" is that usually bank commission on such mortgage was higher than on 'free market' mortgage. This program is maybe in theory noble but in reality it is nothing more than artificial floor for property prices. This program started when property market in Poland was in shambles, it should be stopped long time ago.

PS, I'm not in property bust camp, but prices are falling - don't forget about inflation. Even if price of flat is not moving the price is dropping...

wielki panThreads: 3 Posts: 278 Joined: Jan 7, 11 ♂	Jul 28, 11, 08:46 #120
Even if price of flat is not moving the price is dropping... yes of course. I have lost so much money in Polish real estate, that money invested in Banks give better return.. The problem I had with renting properties was that payment was not on time and the damage to my properties.. there is no capital property growth in poland..

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