Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

If prices are down that is the time to buy, right?

If you look here at this link, you can see prices went up sharply in 2006 (or possibly 2003-2005) and have pretty much stayed up since.

An increase in property prices has occurred in quite a lot of countries. In some countries this was followed by a sharp crash, then something of a recovery. If flats were about 3100-3500 per square meter in 2005 and are 5500 a square meter now in the same streets (sometimes more), then prices have not gone down. Indeed, 400-500tys would buy a quite good house in some local streets in 2004. 400tys now just about buys a reasonable flat in the same street.

This is apparently what it's reported Swiss bank UBS has been saying very recently:

Asset prices have indeed in many cases reached stunning levels, quite obviously out of line with 'fundamentals,' for example in credit or government bond markets. The most dangerous of bubbles are deemed to be those in housing markets as their bursting could wreck whole economies.

If this graph is correct, then average price of apartments in Poland could still drop by 25%:

4.bp.blogspot.com/-GbOpmpK7I6g/UqNPA_FdxEI/AAAAAAAAAcQ/j4j1r7hxP5U/s1600/wykres+-+polska.PNG

Don't forget that watching at nominal prices has no sense. Only inflation adjusted prices have some meaning.

forsal.pl/galerie/796688,duze-zdjecie,4,ceny-mieszkan-i-oprocentowanie-kredytow-oto-najnowszy-raport-z-rynku-nieruchomosci.html

Here you can see that in last year transaction prices went up by around 2.2% in Wrocław. That would explain your observation of people rising offered prices. They also read such reports and react.

Indeed they do. Quite often, however, the prices drop after a while, but you have to wait around a lot for that and be quick when they do get realistic. I missed a few by 24 hours.

However, if there is an election coming, probably the government will try to give the market a fillip. That said, they're building flats all over the place in this city as if they're expecting a pretty massive influx of new residents. Ireland did the same of course.

theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/ireland-predicted-26000-empty-properties-end-2014

You'd normally expect increased availability to put a dampener on prices. If so, it's still not really doing much as most of the discounts are unremarkable.

You would have to find data about number of offered and constructed apartments now in Wrocław in order to know that.

According to this graph in 2013 the number of offered apartments in Poland was actually decreasing.

According to this one the number of finished apartments have been decreasing until this may, but should soon start increasing, because the number of constructions rises since July 2013.

Where I am, there's approx. 7 or 8 developments, perhaps even 10, very close by. The most prestigious of them has slashed prices since last year, and has started to (according to their website) find buyers. The developments are mostly midway or completed. Of the ones that were completed a while back, it seems most flats have not actually been sold or the flats are not yet occupied. Wrocław is seeing an increase in its population without a doubt. Someone I know told me it's now 900 tys to 1 million, although the official figure is about 700 tys. He works for a hospital and somehow they got the figures for how many people each hospital is on duty for, and they add up to over 900 tys for Wrocław. I have no problem at all believing the population has swollen. In which case, yes the flats are needed if they can be afforded (most of the prices still seem to be for good income families and definitely not singles).

same here in warsaw residential properties which were/are at sale in wilanow for 7500 pln a sq mtr are negotiated and on promocja are going for 4800pln a sq mtr a drive around there shows how many built flats are unsold as for commercial places they want 8k a sq mtr(shell) plus vat.I cannot understand this market people are asking what they want.There is no rational pricing atleast in commercials which vary from 10k to 25k in centrum.The ROI is varied from 6% to 10% depending on the tenant....lately conv stores like jabka,carefourr exp,fresh point etc properties are poping up at 10% but there leases are holding the owners by there balls so they selling ASAP.

I take pictures in night of the buildings weekly or so and compare how many lights are on thus giving me an approx idea how many flats are sold as developers will never tell you truth. Look what happened at zlota 44 in warsaw where they wanted 30k a sq mtr and claimed 65% sold( last time I heard) now they turning into offices.But still polish real estate market is better then states I feel and more secure.

Warsaw's sounding better and better. Very few flats here at 4800. The other day a seller pretty much told me to F off, he wants not a penny under 7500. They won't bargain here, or very little.


I don't take pics but I agree it's probably a very good way to tell how many really are sold. Devs here refused my offer. They want, on av, 5200/m2 shell.

was the seller a developer or a private owner? depends a lot on that too and his financial situation
im into commercial but residentials also i keep one eye open

He's private, actually his wife owns it,she bought it in 2006 for less than half the price he wants now. They did it up a bit, flipping it for a handsome profit, but won't be from my pocket. Some profit yeah, but I'm not giving him a bounty.

[edited, confusing English!]

I've done a little digging on Otodom and was staggered to discover that one of the places I made an offer to buy on has actually been on the market since the middle of 2011. This offer was totally ignored, but it was received as I had a read receipt. My offer was actually pretty good because I could see the owner had spent money on it and he seemed like an OK bloke. But it turns out he's in no hurry to bank any buyer's money and perhaps it'll still be for sale 3 months or even 3 more years from now. The Otodom page shows 1000 or so visits, or over 300 per year, yet it's still for sale. That doesn't seem to make the seller think something might be wrong with his price which is apparently negotiable according to the ad. On the other hand, as a prospective buyer, it worries me from seeing this long-running ad that I'd have a lot of trouble selling without a significant loss if I had to sell up and move out suddenly (because it is over-priced by 20% if looked at in the cold light of day).

Maybe you are right as in Poland when I sell a property I tend to wait years as it's pretty affordable to wait and milk it out,or get a loan against it if quick cash is required.

If I'm going to overpay by a large amount, I'd rather overpay in Warsaw than here. And yes, some of the sellers have been hanging on for years, I assume dropping the price in stages, although some maybe haven't. What's correctly priced tends to sell in 4 weeks (sometimes sooner, sometimes a little longer0, from what I can tell.

Thy may be locked in Swiss franc loans.

The main problem with Polish real estate inc of Warsaw is it is illiquid.There are still too many places being built and the market lacks any form of transparency.

I see.

And also, yes, I hear a lot about the CHF problem anecdotally.

An agent begged me to put an offer in at a certain figure on a house. I replied "the owner won't take it, it's silly". She said "Just offer it, he'll take it if it's there, I know him." Well, the owner didn't take it.

So I think many of the agents are finding things tougher and fear a stalemate.

Meanwhile, I note today the same flat for sale that didn't sell has come on with a new agent at 1% more than last month. Over the page, I see flat asking prices down (typically) 5 or 6% on a month ago. Properties I offered on many months ago are still unsold and relisted almost daily, mostly price unchanged on last year's or 2014 Q1's.

She was more than likely playing two buyers, you low balled the second person offered a little more the agent looks good in the sellers mind as she found two buyers in a slow market and she made a sale.

No, that happened a while back and the same house is still for sale. I was reminded of this house when I was looking at property listings today and saw it was live and renewed. But, I've seen it advertised regularly ever since. It's not bad value though, so it should sell this autumn. If it doesn't, then my "silly" price won't look so silly (although it's only silly compared to what I assessed as the owner's idea of what it's worth, not the reality.)

That's correct. Poland has wrong law. There is no cadastral tax, there is no extra tax from owning 2nd apartment, as it is in France or Germany. It leads to waste of resources, because people keep uninhabited houses for years.

Good point, and thank you for teaching me a new word (cadastral) ! :)

It would be very difficult to introduce cadastral tax in Poland as records only began in 2000 as a commitment to the EU, so there is no cadaster which would take hundreds of millions of polish zlotys to complete, the earliest date being 2018. I had recently read there could be a tax of 2% on first property and 9% on additional properties.

One off or annually??

it's just speculations, there are no plans concerning the amount of tax. And government will change before 2018.

I don't think so poles will cry out loud lol so would I in fact I invested in Poland for that reason but 2% will kill most poles and me included one good reasons North Americans invest in polAndi want to sell one lokal but waiting for price I want and will wait till I get what I want

Just like Pl would adopt the Euro in 2010.

In my opinion they will reach the property tax structure like in n America in another 20 years and that just goes fine by me In us I'd pAy almost 80k $in taxes whereS I pay10k pln instead here

I doubt it will take 20 years Poland may possible implement a system similar to Czech republic as it would be more cost effective and easier to manage, this would be possible by 2016-18.

New report about apartments prices: In last year prices mostly haven't changed: forsal.pl/galerie/808069,duze-zdjecie,1,rekordy-sprzedazy-na-rynku-nieruchomosci-ile-zaplacimy-za-mieszkania-pod-koniec-2014-r.html

The biggest developers have record sales. (At least partially because MDM program)

I don't think prices in Poland esp of commercial properties will go down that easy like in states commercials tend to take the hit more stubbornly then residentials maybe cuz the banks tend to loan them on easier terms? In states there use to be no income verification loans for residential and commercials if one puts over 20% on residential and 35% in commercial they are long gone and those loans never even started in Poland banking laws didn't even let the banks sell them as there product. But I tell you banks are choking to lend.... I think they'll find a loophole or so:)

so what's this then? geoportal.gov.pl/en/o-geoportalu/informacje-o-projekcie/informacje-ogolne

I've used this on several occasions to check out some lots but more just for general information than for buying and selling.

As they state the history only goes back to 2005 all transactions before 2005 are not recorded.

Is there a portal that gives historic property selling prices for a particular flat or house, from 2005 or from before, like a Polish version of Nethouseprices or Mouseprice ?