Residential real estate values go down in Poland, September 2011

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Dec 14, 11, 17:55 #91

Harry:

I read it as saying that prices could (could as in one in four chance) fall as much as 30%, not that they will fall by that much.

Of course they could fall that much, but I very much doubt that they will (although I would love to see them come down by that much).

If you have got euros to invest today, taking into consideration that the average EUR/PLN was about 3.80-1 over the last 2-3 years. At Euro/PLN 4.6-1 plus the decrease in prices 10-12% you are already close to - 30%.

Wroclaw BoyThreads: 57 Posts: 5,478 Joined: Jul 3, 09 MEMBER ♂	Dec 14, 11, 18:33 #92
BRS: Analysts admit PKO BP, however, that there is a risk that within two years, prices could fall by up to more than 30 percent.! yeah because the buggers aren't planning on handing out any more mortgages, they've had their fingers burnt good and proper.

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Dec 14, 11, 21:43 #93

Wedle:

If you have got euros to invest today, taking into consideration that the average EUR/PLN was about 3.80-1 over the last 2-3 years. At Euro/PLN 4.6-1 plus the decrease in prices 10-12% you are already close to - 30%.

Thats correct.... People who brought expensive homes say two years ago have certainly got their fingers burnt...30% plus and worse to come....if a person invested his 1m$ for the two years it would be 30% plus... The dollar 2 years ago was about 2.82 now its 3.50.

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Dec 14, 11, 23:05 #94

wielki pan:

Thats correct.... People who brought expensive homes say two years ago have certainly got their fingers burnt...30% plus and worse to come....if a person invested his 1m$ for the two years it would be 30% plus... The dollar 2 years ago was about 2.82 now its 3.50.

Depends what currency they borrowed in.

But the Euro sitting at 4.6 certainly isn't normal or based on reality - it's likely to swing back to 4:1 very quickly.

WedleThreads: 24 Posts: 786 Joined: Sep 27, 11 ♂	Dec 14, 11, 23:14 #95
delphiandomine: But the Euro sitting at 4.6 certainly isn't normal or based on reality - it's likely to swing back to 4:1 very quickly. I was reading it would be at 4.85 in 2012 Q1, the PL gov have stated they would like to see it at 4.1, but thats all smoke and mirrors.

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Dec 15, 11, 14:38 #96

milky:

Just to keep thing in context, check the price here from countries were the wages are 4 times higher.

"Property sales have fallen 70pc in the inland city of Changsa. Prices have reportedly dropped 70pc in the "ghost city" of Ordos in Inner Mongolia".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8957289/Chinas-epic- hangover-begins.html

I realise that the link is not about real estate in Poland but it is about as relevant as your links to Irish property prices.

Massif	Dec 15, 11, 17:54 #97
cms: I've already nailed my own colours to the mast at 20%. CMS must be British- he believes the Agora agenda, much like Britain's Daily Mail!

JonnyMThreads: 16 Posts: 4,487 Joined: Mar 9, 11 ♂	Dec 15, 11, 17:55 #98
Massif: he believes the Agora agenda, The what?

Massif	Dec 15, 11, 17:56 #99
delphiandomine: But the Euro sitting at 4.6 certainly isn't normal or based on reality - it's likely to swing back to 4:1 very quickly. English teachers providing financial analysis... you know the world's gone mad...

JonnyMThreads: 16 Posts: 4,487 Joined: Mar 9, 11 ♂	Dec 15, 11, 18:04 #100
Massif: English teachers providing financial analysis... you know the world's gone mad... Shame you don't provide any of your own credentials for commenting on the housing market. Speaking as someone who isn't an English teacher I would still agree with CMS. 20% is a credible figure.

HarryThreads: 62 Posts: 8,508 Joined: May 2, 07 ♂ [Suspended]	Dec 15, 11, 18:39 #101
JonnyM: Speaking as someone who isn't an English teacher I would still agree with CMS. 20% is a credible figure. Speaking as somebody who also isn't an English teacher, I would say that 20% is too high for the average price drop (although it is entirely possible that some sectors in some places will see falls of more than 20%).

JonnyMThreads: 16 Posts: 4,487 Joined: Mar 9, 11 ♂	Dec 15, 11, 18:42 #102
You're probably right. There are some interesting economic phenomena around the corner and we could all be surprised. I've a feeling the price of smallholdings will keep rising whereas suburbs will not keep pace.

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Dec 15, 11, 23:25 #103

Avalon:

I realise that the link is not about real estate in Poland but it is about as relevant as your links to Irish property prices.

Well, England and Ireland are in the EU, wages are 4 time higher than Poland.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/83647anhour-pay-gap-cost-1900- dell-jobs-1596439.html?start=3

So Mr free market economy, stop claiming that all is not connected. EU-Europe-Poland -Ireland-world recession-UK. Everything is relevant. The market will decide lol

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Dec 16, 11, 00:36 #104

JonnyM:

There are some interesting economic phenomena around the corner and we could all be surprised

you mean a economic black cloud...no one wants to speak gloom and doom for obvious reasons, but when you speak to financial expects privately most agree a severe downturn is on the horizons....may not have a severe impact on Polish real estate as Poles don't sell at bargain basement prices, developers may have to wear the brunt..The government may have to cut spending etc....people on fixed income ie pensioners will have it hard..

JonnyMThreads: 16 Posts: 4,487 Joined: Mar 9, 11 ♂	Dec 16, 11, 09:59 #105
wielki pan: you mean a economic black cloud I mean exactly that - but something a bit longer lasting than a black cloud. We have boom and bust, but after this bust will the boom be in this part of the world...

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Dec 16, 11, 10:13 #106

wielki pan:

as Poles don't sell at bargain basement prices,

Since when?? I know lots of people who got massive bargains prior to late 2005. Maybe,you mean Poles haven't been selling at basement prices over the last (6)few years. This could not possibly represent a mutation in Polish traits over such a tiny period. The market, will decide, how people behave in relation to their economic decisions.

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families.
Margaret Thatcher, Conservative Prime Minister, 1987 wrong wrong wrong

In Ireland between 2000-08 the average Joe Soap was saying, "you have to get on the property ladder, the Irish are greedy, they'll never budge on prices",If I'd got a penny for every time I heard this I'd be a rich ..........
These same greedy people(Poles in Eire included) are now selling at up to 70% less.
My point! the conviction and backbone of a seller is a bluff;the market is King.

AvalonThreads: 3 Posts: 814 Joined: Sep 11, 07 ♂	Dec 16, 11, 10:52 #107
milky: In Ireland between 2000-08 the average Joe Soap was saying, "you have to get on the property ladder, the Irish are greedy, they'll never budge on prices",If I'd got a penny for every time I heard this I'd be a rich .......... And if you had bought in 2000 and sold before 2007, you would have been rich.

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Dec 16, 11, 12:12 #108

cms:

I visited on my first trip to Poland in 92.

that says it all, doesn't it. you don't live here and you don't get the mentality. people still buy less than 35 m2 flats. they have been selling all along. the retiree's are buying them as are singles and private investors.

I have worked with a good number of builders and this is what is selling- less than 40m2. When you have to fit out an apartment on top of the purchase of the place- it is expensive. A good purchase, in my opinion, is a resale apartment. Usually you can get bigger and it is finished so that you can live in it while you slowly refinish it when you get the money- instead of spending a lot for the initial purchase and then the extra for the fit out and cost of hiring a carpenter.
There are loads of resale places in blocks that are less than ten years old. the problem in this country is that residential agents are beyond a fcuking joke and have no clue how to sell a house or in fact have no knowledge of client relations or professionalism.

cmsThreads: 6 Posts: 201 Joined: Sep 4, 09 ♂	Dec 16, 11, 12:18 #109
pip: you don't live here I do live here. 92 was the first time I visited, as a student and I stay with some Polish relatives for a few days on edge of Warsaw. There were 3 generations in a flat I would guess to be 50 sqm. It didn't seem to be a lifestyle choice they had made themselves.

HarryThreads: 62 Posts: 8,508 Joined: May 2, 07 ♂ [Suspended]	Dec 16, 11, 12:58 #110
pip: the problem in this country is that residential agents are beyond a fcuking joke and have no clue how to sell a house or in fact have no knowledge of client relations or professionalism. You hit the nail on the head there pip. Agents here are usually utterly incompetent and simply expect to be given thousands of zloty for doing almost nothing.

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Dec 16, 11, 16:38 #111

cms:

It didn't seem to be a lifestyle choice they had made themselves.

Exactly!!!!!!!!!!! and I'm sick of making this point to the like of pip and Co....
I hope there are people reading this,and laughing at the statements repeatedly made here, that Poles "actually" choose to live in such tiny accommodation

cms:

3 generations in a flat I would guess to be 50 sqm

Some people are just pathetic with their superiority complexes.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER.
all that is selling is 35M apartments, because............................................................... ........................
ok

HarryThreads: 62 Posts: 8,508 Joined: May 2, 07 ♂ [Suspended]	Dec 16, 11, 16:58 #112
milky: IT'S ALL THEY CAN AFFORD, NOT, IT'S WHAT THEY CHOOSE OR PREFER. Speak for yourself. I live in a 50m flat because that is what I choose. I don't need anything bigger so why have anything bigger?

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Dec 16, 11, 17:28 #113
I think he was speaking for 3 generations living in 50m2 flat.

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Dec 16, 11, 17:33 #114

I don't get what you are talking about. Never ever have I said anything with regards to Poles buying what they can afford. If you look back to what I have said it has never argued that point. My point is that there is no property bubble and I think that there is a resale market in Poland that is untapped. First time buyers are not looking at flats that are already finished they, for the most part, are looking at new. There is a reason for this. Resale homes are not sale ready- the pictures that the agents put on the web are stupid stupid stupid. messy and ugly. It is not difficult to stage a home for sale but agents don't do this.
I stand firm in my belief that agents in this country don't know their arse from a hole in the ground. They know nothing about the market, how to sell a house or client relations.

I don't have a superiority complex- but you have been spouting the dribble of housing bubble for quite some time and now you are saying that small flats have always sold? make up your mind.

now developers are offering perks because the market has slowed. this includes new cars, lower prices and bigger spaces.

there still is no bubble and 35m2 have always sold and will continue to sell- for more reasons than what Poles can afford. Polish people have different spacial concepts than those in the west.

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Dec 16, 11, 17:53 #115
pip: It is not difficult to stage a home for sale but agents don't do this. This whole 'staging' a home is an art of deceiving and covering up the shortcomings of the property.. I hope it doesn't work in Poland. It's for cheats and idiots.

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Dec 16, 11, 18:31 #116

f stop:

This whole 'staging' a home is an art of deceiving and covering up the shortcomings of the property.

nah! double aspect views. is a positive.

room for potential. would suit a confident DIY enthusiast. are negatives.

and fresh cut flowers on the table don't fool me.

not many would buy their first home without the opinion of someone with experience. besides that most folk make their mind up in the first five minutes of viewing.

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Edited by: f stop Dec 16, 11, 18:46 #117
I disagree. By the time we go to see the place, the location, size and price is usually a match, so what we want to see is what's wrong with the place. Attempts to cover stuff up is an annoyance.

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Edited by: pip Dec 16, 11, 18:51 #118

f stop:

This whole 'staging' a home is an art of deceiving and covering up the shortcomings of the property.. I hope it doesn't work in Poland. It's for cheats and idiots.

actually it is anything but. I used to teach a course in home staging. the entire concept is getting rid of the clutter and all personal items and junk to show the entire space. Everything should already be repaired and in good working order. If somebody is trying to hide a leaky faucette or broken pipes then they are not staging a home for sale- they are cheating.

there is no lying- there is cleaning and painting and fixing. that is what home staging is. it is not lying or cheating to make a sale.

And it works. here in poland and elsewhere. I sold my home in 3 months in an osiedle where 6 other same models were for sale. the homes were not staged. In the spring I also helped a colleague stage her home- this involved a kitchen reno and new laminate flooring- the house sold in three days. And that is no lie. It was a resale home in an old 70's block that was sold to a retiree. He wanted to buy the entire contents of the flat- including the pictures and the sofa.

Space doesn't have to be big- but it has to be useful and in Poland so many people try to cram as much stuff as possible in a small space- leaving it full of clutter and no room to move.

f stopThreads: 33 Posts: 2,861 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Edited by: f stop Dec 16, 11, 18:56 #119
yes, exactly! The essential furniture, such as dressers in bedrooms are taken out so the rooms "look" bigger. I've done my share of staging for photographs, so I know what I'm talking about, too. I assumed that Poles have enough imagination to overlook somebody else stuff and smart enough to bring a measuring tape. ;)

WroclawThreads: 77 Posts: 7,404 Joined: Apr 1, 06 ♂ [Moderator]	Dec 16, 11, 19:06 #120
f stop: I disagree with me ? but i agree with you.

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