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How do you comment on "Poland real estate analysis" of the biggest property site

Markson

Dec 25, 09, 11:10 #1

News 2009:

.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland

Continuous house price falls in Poland expected

After strong increases from 2004 to 2007, property prices in Poland either stagnated or declined in 2008. The decline continued in Q1 2009 and prices are expected to keep on falling until 2010, at the least.

Tenant Security: However, the general situation over rental laws is worryingly unstable. Strict re-regulation of the rental sector was recently legislated by Parliament. Fortunately, it was declared unconstitutional shortly after coming into law. Populist pro-tenant feeling is strong.

delphiandomineThreads: 40 Posts: 9,587 Joined: Nov 25, 08 ♂	Dec 26, 09, 05:27 #2
Jesus, Mark, shouldn't you have been spending Christmas Day with your wife and baby rather than spamming Polishforums? The article you posted is from 6 months ago and has very little relevance to the marketplace today - if you're going to spam the forums, at least post up to date articles!

nomaderolThreads: 7 Posts: 1,213 Joined: Oct 18, 09 ♂	Dec 27, 09, 14:11 #3
all these price falls could be considered as speculations as there wasn't this global crisis. while all house prices going low all over the world, claiming otherwise in poland can be considered as speculation or pumping hopes to the veins of capitalism that is in coma once again.

glup	Dec 27, 09, 20:31 #4
investing in poland is stupid. WHY. because dumb polaks would rather stay in tiny flats than buy new !!

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Dec 27, 09, 20:44 #5
glup: investing in poland is stupid. WHY. because dumb polaks would rather stay in tiny flats than buy new !! I agree, why live with savings and disposable income when you can be burdened by debt to pay for inflated assets!

milkyThreads: 10 Posts: 1,019 Joined: Oct 26, 09 ♀	Jan 4, 10, 00:23 #6
Is There anywhere else(country) in Europe or the world were property is so expensive in relation to the wages that the natives earn. Are the Polish the most ripped off people this side of mars?? Buying a normal house in Poland would be like be buying a house here in Ireland for a million Euros.

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Jan 4, 10, 02:26 #7
http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp check 2009

f stopThreads: 28 Posts: 2,682 Joined: Dec 9, 09 ♀	Jan 4, 10, 04:13 #8
Great link! Holly Molly, US has the cheapest houses in the WORLD (as a ratio of yearly earnings). So, it seams reasonable that either the house prices will go up or the earnings will go down.

♀

Jan 4, 10, 11:06 #9

This forum is taken over unfortunately by developers and real estate agents. They convinced the mods to close down the two threads with the most posters (Property in Poland is collapsing in prices at high speeds) and they opened a bogus thread fake, about that the bubble inflated prices of Krakow (10.000 pln/sq.m.) and s on, which are higher than Berlin or Vienna, as not being at their highest point yet :) :rotfl: :lol:

While all experts agree on the orices going down in Polish real estate, these developers have nothing else better to do all day than sit on this forum and write BS...

♂

Edited by: jwojcie Jan 4, 10, 11:43 #10

With all due respect to every doomer and gloomer here, prices of flats fell in 2009 in range between a few and dozen or so percent only...
With all due respect to every pumper here, prices of flats fell in 2009 in range between a few and dozen or so percent...

That is the fact :-) Interpretation of that fact lies only in your personal preference.
Another fact is that prices of flats inflated in Poland since 2003 about 200%-300%. Which is clearly a bubble hike. How do you think what is the probability of another hike like this now? I think not very high. The only question is, if it bursts or just stay were it is and waits for inflation and wages to come up.

♂

Edited by: convex Jan 4, 10, 11:50 #11

Why does it seem reasonable that house prices will go up, or earnings will go down? The US, as well as most stable economies, have historically had a fairly low income to home price ratio. High gini coefficients and transient workers might explain prices in places like Hong Kong and Singapore. I've always had a hard time figuring out why an apartment in Warsaw costs more than one in New York while at the same time rental yields are much, much lower.

Just take a look at 2009, use that as a basis to do a bit more research.

In vast swaths of the US, housing never went through the bubbles that occurred on the coast. Pulling Austin for instance, median household income was around 50k and houses values were 280k. Nice ratio, real estate has been appreciating at around 3-5%, the rate of inflation (and still is appreciating).

In San Diego, the median household income is 55k and houses are going for 495k with houses appreciating 20-30% a year to get to that level. No surprise that they are coming back down.

I have no personal financial interest in property prices dropping, but I think it's pretty sad when a university professor can't afford to buy a decent house in the city that they teach in. PAIiIZ seems pretty proud that salaries in Poland aren't raising near as quickly as other countries, the government seems to be supporting that to promote investment.

jwojcie:

That is the fact :-) Interpretation of that fact lies only in your personal preference.
Another fact is that prices of flats inflated in Poland since 2003 about 200%-300%. Which is clearly a bubble hike. How do you think what is the probability of another hike like this now? I think not very high. The only question is, if it bursts or just stay were it is and waits for inflation and wages to come up.

Asset bubbles deflate the same way that they grew. If it took 7 years to get to current levels, it will take 7 years from them to get back to stable prices.

convexThreads: 47 Posts: 7,189 Joined: Nov 25, 09 ♂	Edited by: convex Jan 4, 10, 12:12 #12
Just to add a bit, congratulations to people that purchased property to live in and have no problem making their mortgage payments. Even if housing prices drop, you'll still be doing ok in 30 years if inflation stays its course. Speculators...well, housing is just like trading any kind of asset.

♂

Jan 4, 10, 15:05 #13

convex:

Just to add a bit, congratulations to people that purchased property to live in and have no problem making their mortgage payments. Even if housing prices drop, you'll still be doing ok in 30 years if inflation stays its course. Speculators...well, housing is just like trading any kind of asset.

That's very true, lot's of people lose sight that; that IS the principal reason why you invest in property, to live in it. It's as simply as that...enjoy your home and invest in another property if you're prepared to go with the market...you might lose it, and some other things as well, so be careful. But as convex says, that's speculation.

polskyThreads: 5 Posts: 98 Joined: May 26, 09 ♀	Jan 22, 10, 17:20 #14
in poland the temperatures now are below - 30 degrees Celsius. MINUS 30 DEGREES CELSIUS yes like in SIBERIA. In Siberia however it costs about 150 euros/sq.m. and apartment, and in Krakow, just about 50 times more expensive... Only insane people and developers can brainwash you into throwing your money out the frozen window to buy in the POLAR COUNTRY...

SeanBMThreads: 41 Posts: 8,647 Joined: Mar 10, 08 ♂	Edited by: SeanBM Jan 22, 10, 17:22 #15
polsky: in poland the temperatures now are below - 30 degrees Celsius. That is a lie.

polskyThreads: 5 Posts: 98 Joined: May 26, 09 ♀	Jan 22, 10, 17:29 #16
SeanBM: That is a lie. Nope. It is the hard truth, and you cannot take the hard truth: http://news-poland.com/result/news/id/3849 MINUS 31 DEGREES CELSIUS FROZEN. 122 people dead. Biggest number in the whole world of people dead because of FREEZING COLD WEATHER

♂

Edited by: jonni Jan 22, 10, 17:36 #17

polsky:

Nope. It is the hard truth, and you cannot take the hard truth:

Minus 18c here in Warsaw - a very different kettle of fish to -30.

BBC Weather - Warsaw

[quotepolsky]Only insane people and developers can brainwash you into throwing your money out the frozen window to buy in the POLAR COUNTRY..[/quote]

Some of us live here.

And for those who don't, Spring, Summer and Autumn are great!

SeanBMThreads: 41 Posts: 8,647 Joined: Mar 10, 08 ♂	Jan 22, 10, 17:39 #18
polsky: can you talk specifics and prove against Nobody has to prove against. You have to prove your point, with links.

♂

Edited by: jonni Jan 22, 10, 17:40 #19

polsky:

can you talk specifics and prove against the fact that the real estate prices ar collapsing throughout all poland?

Check out the Gazeta Wyborcza website. I can't be bothered to fish out a link, and anyway I'm getting ready to go out. This week, on Wednesday they published the average prices per sqm based on sales over the last 12 months, city by city. Prices are stable. Unfortunately, because it would be good for me if you were right. But you're not.

polskyThreads: 5 Posts: 98 Joined: May 26, 09 ♀	Jan 22, 10, 17:43 #20
jonni: Minus 18c here in Warsaw - And minus 24 degrees in the next days. It just makes me wanna grab my shorts and a tshirt and go out to have suntanning. To buy an apartment in such a frozen icy country is a crime of extreme stupidity

jonniThreads: 26 Posts: 4,189 Joined: Nov 27, 07 ♂	Edited by: jonni Jan 22, 10, 17:49 #21
polsky: And minus 24 degrees in the next days. Nights actually. In fact one night, a few days away. Are you saying that people who live here shouldn't buy a flat because it's cold at night in January? Or that buy-to-let is a bad idea because the entire renting population will emigrate to the equator like swallows? Come off it!

♂

Jan 22, 10, 19:59 #22

polsky:

in poland the temperatures now are below - 30 degrees Celsius. MINUS 30 DEGREES CELSIUS yes like in SIBERIA.

Hello, Mark Biernat...spamming again?

I spoke with one 30-something woman today who told me that she's never seen a winter like this before. It's a freak, cold winter in Europe full stop.

polsky:

Only insane people and developers can brainwash you into throwing your money out the frozen window to buy in the POLAR COUNTRY...

You really are bitter and resentful, aren't you? I mean - we all know you can't afford to buy in Krakow, even despite this huge imaginary drop in prices.

jonni:

Minus 18c here in Warsaw - a very different kettle of fish to -30.

-15c in Poznan, it's not even that cold. There's no sign of -30 tempatures here!

polsky:

To buy an apartment in such a frozen icy country is a crime of extreme stupidity

So why do you live here, Mark Biernat? Is it because you're bitter because you can't afford to buy in Poland and all you can do is rent in a run-down part of Krakow?

wildroverThreads: 180 Posts: 8,143 Joined: Jun 7, 07 ♂	Edited by: wildrover Jan 22, 10, 20:12 #23
Its quite cold here at my farm....but definatly not minus 30....I just wish i had one of those Kracow flats , they are so warm inside , and such great prices at the moment...They are sure to be worth a lot more in the future.....I think i will buy two...?

polskyThreads: 5 Posts: 98 Joined: May 26, 09 ♀	Feb 20, 10, 12:03 #24
I know several owners of apartments who are desperately trying to get rid of their apartments bought in 2007. They say they had just 2 viewing trips from interested buyers in the last 3 months, and none was sold. The buyers offered cash 50% of the prices advertised, and said that noone is crazy to buy now , when prices are about to fall around 30% - 60% in the next 2 years...

wildroverThreads: 180 Posts: 8,143 Joined: Jun 7, 07 ♂	Feb 25, 10, 15:47 #25
But none of these owners are so desperate that they will sell you one eh...?

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