The Ultimate Guide to POLAND
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Poland's apartment prices continue to fall


Harry Activity: 61 / 12,892
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
23 Feb 2012  #421

large families of 4

Four people is a large family? A strange statement even by your standards.

I read yesterday that there are over 50.000 unsold apartments in the main 6 cities.
Also banks refusing mortgages unless couples have a joint income of 8000 zloty, net a month.

For the second time as asking: source please. Or should we just conclude that you're making things up?

sa11y Activity: 5 / 331
Joined: 12 Dec 2011 ♀
 
23 Feb 2012  #422

Paying 750 $ when the average wage in New York is 935$; not so bad for a classy place like NY

7 sq m is not bad (for 750 USD!) is not bad?
And 50 sq m for a family of 4 IS bad?
f stop Activity: 25 / 2,646
Joined: 9 Dec 2009 ♀
 
23 Feb 2012  #423

average wage in New York is 935$

that's per week
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
28 Feb 2012  #424

Warsaw stats and comparison - article extracts below:

Global housing market downturn gathering pace
Tuesday 28 February 2012
The world’s housing downturn is gathering momentum, according to the latest world-wide survey of house price indices prepared by the Global Property Guide. During 2011, house prices fell in 22 countries, of the 35 countries for which Q4 house price statistics are available, and rose in only 13 countries. Similarly, 21 housing markets performed worse during 2011 than last year, while only 14 countries performed better.
The figures for the 4th quarter of 2011 are somewhat worrying, with quarterly price rises in only 10 countries, but price falls in 25 countries. On the other hand, the apparent trend towards recovery in the US is positive.

The Global Property Guide’s statistical presentation uses price-changes after inflation, giving a more realistic picture than the more upbeat nominal figures usually preferred by real estate agents.

European housing markets still heading down
Most countries whose housing markets experienced accelerated downturns in 2011 are located in Europe, including Finland (-2.22% down in 2011), United Kingdom (-3.39%), Sweden (-5.29%), Netherlands (-5.77%), Slovak Republic (-6.88%), Portugal (-7.78%), Spain (-9.27%), Athens, Greece (-10.43%), and Warsaw, Poland (-10.55%).
Unhappy Ireland still holds the title of ‘world’s weakest housing market’, with house prices plummeting by 18.08% in 2011. With low transactions, constrained mortgage lending, and an uncertain economic environment, Irish house prices are likely to continue falling in 2012.

However, several European countries actually enjoyed house price rises in 2011. The highest house price climb in Europe was in Tallinn, Estonia, whose property market has been recovering since the second half of 2010. Over the past twelve months, house prices in Tallinn rose 8.36%.

Housing markets in the Ukraine and Iceland finally bounced back in the final quarter of 2011. In Kiev, apartment prices climbed by 5.29% (in nominal terms) from a year earlier, after falling 9.47% the previous year. Likewise, house prices in Iceland rose 1.84% year-on-year, after falling 4.18% the previous year.
pip Activity: 11 / 1,663
Joined: 4 Jul 2011 ♀
 
28 Feb 2012  #425

Canada hasn't been hit hard- which is interesting because of our geographical location.

business.financialpost.com/2012/02/21/canada-housing-prices-wont-crash-poll

One of my best friends husband just sold a house in 4 days- he is over the moon.
milky Activity: 12 / 1,659
Joined: 26 Oct 2009 ♀
 
28 Feb 2012  #426

(-5.29%), Netherlands (-5.77%), Slovak Republic (-6.88%), Portugal (-7.78%), Spain (-9.27%), Athens, Greece (-10.43%), and Warsaw, Poland (-10.55%).
Unhappy Ireland still holds the title of ‘world’s weakest housing market’, with house prices plummeting by 18.08% in 2011. With low transactions, constrained mortgage lending, and an uncertain economic environment, Irish house prices are likely to continue falling in 2012.

Why countries and then capitals of two cities....Why not one or the other
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
28 Feb 2012  #427

good question, I went to the source and it seems what they quoted for Warsaw is actually for Poland, by city info below. I'd recommend checking the website for the full article (not that you can trust any data anywhere - I doubt the country data they use is even comparable) - globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History

Yet Poland's housing market was Europe's second-worst performer in 2011, down by 10.55% in inflation-adjusted terms.
Prices fell less in major cities, but the downturn is significant:
· In Warsaw, the average price of "exposed units" (i.e. used units) fell 6.6% in 2011 (6.97% in real terms), according to REAS.
· Krakow used dwelling prices fell 5.53% (5.90% in real terms).
· Poznan used dwelling prices fell 4.57% (4.95% in real terms).
· Lodtz used dwelling prices fell 5.46% (5.83% in real terms).
· Tri-City used dwelling prices fell 3.44% (3.82% in real terms).
· Wroclaw used dwelling prices fell 8.39% (8.75% in real terms).
Compared to pre-crisis peaks:
· House prices in Warsaw are down by 13.63% (13.53% in real terms).
· In Krakow, house prices are down by 11.80% (13.2% in real terms).
· In Lodz, prices have fallen by 17.87.% (17.67% in real terms).
· In Tri-City, house prices plunged by 25.22% (26.62% in real terms).
· In Wroclaw, house prices are down by 31.91% (31.81% in real terms).
· In Poznan, property prices plummeted by 44.08% (44.18% in real terms).
delphiandomine Activity: 55 / 14,772
Joined: 25 Nov 2008 ♂
 
28 Feb 2012  #428

That's absolutely bollocks, to say the least.

If they had fallen 44%, I'd be straight to the bank to ask for another mortgage as the prices would be laughably low given that the average wage here is now well over 4000zl/month.

Prices have fallen in Poznan by around 10% or so since the peak. Entirely expected, and given the continued sharp climb in wages, nothing out of the ordinary.
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
29 Feb 2012  #429

Like I said - you can't trust any data anywhere - at best it is not comparable apartments (ie. more lower standard/smaller apartments are being sold).

Some more data from the news today for those who like data

Apartments losing value
Not all real estate markets in Europe have bounced back from the financial crisis - and
the Polish one belongs to them. Apartments have become cheaper since the 2007
housing bubble. Taking into account inflation, average value has fallen by a quarter,
according to professor Michael Ball from Reading University in Great Britain.
According to his newest report, "2012 RICS European Housing Review," it appears in
Ireland prices have fallen by more than 50% and in Great Britain and Hungary, by
more than 30%.
Avalon Activity: 4 / 1,155
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 ♂
 
29 Feb 2012  #430


Like I said - you can't trust any data anywhere

You can trust the stats that Milky posts here. They were perfectly correct four years ago.
OP peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,049
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
29 Feb 2012  #431

That's absolutely bollocks, to say the least.

I agreed, its mathematically impossible to come to those figures, for instance

• In Poznan, property prices plummeted by 44.08% (44.18% in real terms).

So the effect of inflation (3-5% per year) is a difference of 0.1% over several years?

• In Krakow, house prices are down by 11.80% (13.2% in real terms).

whereas inflation in Krakow results in 1.4%?? Inflation is a national figure so the effect should be equally proportional.

Bunkum.
milky Activity: 12 / 1,659
Joined: 26 Oct 2009 ♀
 
29 Feb 2012  #432

In Lublin the prices are pretty much the same as last year and the year before.
BRS Activity: 2 / 48
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #433

google translation

In cities such as Lodz, Katowice, Bydgoszcz and Gorzow Wielkopolski apartments can be bought used for less than three thousand. zł per square meter. This price does not mean a bad standard, but a worse location, and usually a larger area - underline analysts.

In smaller towns, flats, especially in the secondary market, prices are relatively competitive. The data service Ofert.net that, in Lodz, the lowest bid per square meter of your home are 2.8 thousand. zł, 2.7 thousand in Katowice. zł per sq. m is even cheaper in Bydgoszcz , where the lowest asking prices of flats on the other hand are 2.6 thousand. zł per sq. m, and Gorzów these prices fluctuate around two thousand. zł died sq Drogomirecki Martin, principal analyst Oferty.net service, ensures that the cheapest bid is contrary to appearances, they are not vandalized properties in the ruined buildings.
- These are usually properties in quite good condition. Their low prices due to the fact that this was worse than central locations - Drogomirecki said. The second factor that influences the price reduction per square meter, is, according to analyst area. The relationship is such that the flat surface is higher, the price per square meter lower. apartments cheaper because wages are low According to Jaroslaw leap, a representative office in the agency Emmerson, low housing prices in cities such as Lodz , Katowice , whether due to Gorzow that in these markets is at a standstill. - There is a lack of purchasing power in these cities because people earn much less than in urban areas such as Warsaw - said Skoczeń. He added that all these local factors compounded the crisis which has affected the housing market even in large cities and small is often felt even more.
Avalon Activity: 4 / 1,155
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #434

In Lublin the prices are pretty much the same as last year and the year before.

No sign of the 50% fall in prices then? still, its early days yet.
Harry Activity: 61 / 12,892
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #435

But you have to remember that prices being the same now as they were two years ago is actually a real fall of 27.6%.
sa11y Activity: 5 / 331
Joined: 12 Dec 2011 ♀
 
1 Mar 2012  #436

No sign of the 50%

My mom just sold her old flat for just 4.1 k zl/sqm and bought a bigger one for similar pm cost. And that's in Kielce - I really don't know where are those flats for 2.8 k zl/sqm, not in Kielce...
Avalon Activity: 4 / 1,155
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #437

But you have to remember that prices being the same now as they were two years ago is actually a real fall of 27.6%.

Source please ; )
OP peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,049
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #438

But you have to remember that prices being the same now as they were two years ago is actually a real fall of 27.6%.

You got the principle, even if your maths is still suspect.
pip Activity: 11 / 1,663
Joined: 4 Jul 2011 ♀
 
1 Mar 2012  #439

no. still no bubble.
Harry Activity: 61 / 12,892
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
1 Mar 2012  #440

Yes pip, but if prices stay the same for the next fifty years, that might mean that there was a bubble.....
OP peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,049
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
2 Mar 2012  #441

No Harry, that would be a crash in real terms.
Kielbasa Kid Activity: 2 / 4
Joined: 25 Feb 2009 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #442

For most, property as an investment, turns out to be, merely a hedge against inflation.
If property prices stay neutral for 50, 20 or even 1 or 2 years, then in real terms it has actually gone down.

The longer prices are stagnant, the more drastic the fall in real terms.
OP peterweg Activity: 37 / 2,049
Joined: 16 Feb 2007 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #443

For most, property as an investment, turns out to be, merely a hedge against inflation.

Property is a very good hedge against inflation over the long term. No matter waht people can/will pay a large part - and stable in real terms - of their wage towards somewhere to live; if they can work while living there.

Short term, under seven years it can be a good or bad. As long as you can wait 'seven years' to sell it will be fine..
Harry Activity: 61 / 12,892
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #444

For most, property as an investment, turns out to be, merely a hedge against inflation.

Most people buy property as primarily a place to live rather than as an investment.
cms Activity: 8 / 548
Joined: 4 Sep 2009 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #445

In which case they are misguided to pay the current bubble prices. You could comfortably rent a place for 25 years for the same amount of money as is being asked in some towns.

Mind you big falls in prices in January in some towns, Wroclaw and lodz especially. Plenty of sources. Reas , oferty.pl,

The 44 percent falls noted in that article are possible as it was referring to euro amounts in the full report. Add a 20 percent zloty fall to a 20 percent currency effect.
Harry Activity: 61 / 12,892
Joined: 2 May 2007 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #446

In which case they are misguided to pay the current bubble prices. You could comfortably rent a place for 25 years for the same amount of money as is being asked in some towns.

So you rent a place for 25 years, then what? You have what exactly?

Still waiting for you to demonstrate that Poland has or had a property bubble.

he 44 percent falls noted in that article are possible as it was referring to euro amounts in the full report. Add a 20 percent zloty fall to a 20 percent currency effect.

A 20% fall is due to the fall in the zloty? That must mean that prices in Warsaw are actually up by 7% in zloty terms (as the article claims they are down by 13.63%).
Avalon Activity: 4 / 1,155
Joined: 11 Sep 2007 ♂
 
5 Mar 2012  #447

Harry, you cannot educate pork. The people that use these stats are of the same mindset as those at EU headquarters who are trying to convince the markets that Greece will not go bust and the euro is a sound currency. They do not deal in facts only numbers they can manipulate.
milky Activity: 12 / 1,659
Joined: 26 Oct 2009 ♀
 
5 Mar 2012  #448

So you rent a place for 25 years, then what? You have what exactly?

Over the span of years 2002-2008 real estate prices in Poland have increased drastically. Between June 2006 and June 2007 alone the average price of a square metre in Warsaw rose from 6,683 PLN (1,636 EUR) to 9,540 PLN (2,519 EUR) (over 50% rise in euro terms).[1]

According to a major Polish newspaper, Gazeta Wyborcza, the average monthly salary in Warsaw buys 0.26 m2, or in Kraków 0.22 m2.[2]

Same sources give rental profitability at 4% yearly. This is lower than interest rates on bank deposits (5% in Polbank etc.).[2]

In early 2007 the Polish property market began to show early signs of a property bubble; these included:

banks increasing loan periods from 30 to 50 years to extend credit limits;
over 1 million families already in debt, and roughly 300,000 more going in debt every year;
increasing interest rates - analysts predict 6% by the end of 2007 (from less than 4% in 2006);
number of new apartments for sale in Warsaw at one of the oldest Polish real estate portals: tabelaofert.pl increased from around 1,750 in November 2006 to over 4,300 in June 2007 to over 11,000 in July 2008;[citation needed]
exotic companies declaring real estate development plans;
Polish economy showing signs of the overheating: from 2005 to 2007 the forex deficit almost tripled (it had been decreasing in previous years); imports, which were decreasing (by 5%) in 2005, jumped to a 25% increase in 2007;[citation needed]
stagnation of prices and dramatic drop of sales in a long period of time with dynamically increasing supply of residential properties.
wildrover Activity: 98 / 4,466
Joined: 7 Jun 2007 ♂
 
6 Mar 2012  #449

This thread has been going on so long now with prices falling with each post...

I reckon a Polish appartment cost about 50 zloty now....

But don,t rush , by next week they will pay you to take one...!
milky Activity: 12 / 1,659
Joined: 26 Oct 2009 ♀
 
6 Mar 2012  #450

I reckon a Polish appartment cost about 50 zloty now....

That's a good price,,link please





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Poland's apartment prices continue to fall
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